Corona Cooks

[cheflife15]

Watched Dr Doom again this morning . It’s worth checking out his posts. He is now being interviewed worldwide as an expert on this “pandemic”. He says that 3.85 billion people are going to catch the virus worldwide over the next 1-2 years. Some areas are going to get hit worse than others (Africa and Italy). China and South Korea are amazing. Britain and the United States are deplorable and irredeemable. The world needs to help the unfortunate parts of the world.

A couple of thoughts come to mind. Who’s going to help the 160million or so Americans who catch the disease while the rest are commanded to “Shelter in Place” or preferably (implied, not stated) quarantined under threat of force. Quarantine camps? Barbed wire?

The second is that I first started collecting hampers in grade school to send to the poor unfortunate starving Africans. In 60+ years, nothing has changed, except now we send money.

I feel a bit like I did when I watched troops enter Iraq to seize WMD’s, or when my generation marched off to Vietnam to “save” the world from communism.

I sincerely hope my feelings are wrong.

I watchdd a good portion of the video, where did he mention 160 million americans getthing this virus?

 

[Brian Weekley]

Based upon his estimate that one half of the population of the world would catch the virus. Presumably one half of the population of the USA based on his calculations. Possibly will be higher because China through exercising more prudent measures has virtually “stopped” the virus and their one billion plus are now safe.

At least that’s how I calculate it.

 

[cheflife15]

Based upon his estimate that one half of the population of the world would catch the virus. Presumably one half of the population of the USA based on his calculations. Possibly will be higher because China through exercising more prudent measures has virtually “stopped” the virus and their one billion plus are now safe.

At least that’s how I calculate it.

It doesn't effect 80 percent of the people who have it so that number is highly unrealistic.

 

[Brian Weekley]

OK ... my calculations are possibly wrong.

That’s great!

 

[ian]

It doesn't effect 80 percent of the people who have it so that number is highly unrealistic.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the 80% figure is the number of people who have mild symptoms. But here mild mean “not requiring hospitalization”. So potentially having a 103 fever is mild, as were @NBrewster’s symptoms.

Or maybe I’m wrong. That figure seems kinda high now... let me go check. Edit: yea, at least some sources define “mild” that way. Others say mild means “only mild pneumonia”. Anyway, mild coronavirus can be a pain....

 

[Brian Weekley]

It’s pretty difficult to determine exactly what is being said. So if your form is “mild” do you still shelter in place and quarantine? If you have a “mild” case are you still contagious?

 

[cheflife15]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the 80% figure is the number of people who have mild symptoms. But here mild mean “not requiring hospitalization”. So potentially having a 103 fever is mild, as were @NBrewster’s symptoms.

Or maybe I’m wrong. That figure seems kinda high now... let me go check. Edit: yea, at least some sources define “mild” that way. Others say mild means “only mild pneumonia”. Anyway, mild coronavirus can be a pain....

China has a billion people and came no where near 160 million infected. Theyre already on the way to improving

 

[cheflife15]

It’s pretty difficult to determine exactly what is being said. So if your form is “mild” do you still shelter in place and quarantine? If you have a “mild” case are you still contagious?

Everyone should be sheltered in place right now. Thats the only way this stops.

 

[Brian Weekley]

That’s great ... it means Dr. Doom must be wrong in his estimate that half the population of the earth is going to catch the disease. I wonder what he was thinking about.

 

[tgfencer]

Tues i had to lay off 64 employees and was laid off myself, hardest thing I've ever had to do. Wondering how my employees will feed there family's has really messed me up. I know we're strong ppl but this is a lot to take on.

I'm in Asheville too, sad to see lots of restaurants, breweries, and retail struggling here. Where do you work?

 

[cheflife15]

That’s great ... it means Dr. Doom must be wrong in his estimate that half the population of the earth is going to catch the disease. I wonder what he was thinking about.

I don't either, I guess i missed that part too. Right now the world is at 300,000. Let's say that's off by 80 percent. Thats still only half a million. Thats light years away from 165 million just in the USA.

 

[labor of love]

The worst case scenarios cited by other experts in a Washington Post article suggest 1.1 million deaths in the US.

 

[VICTOR J CREAZZI]

Yes ... you’re going to get sick. The vast majority won’t really notice it. Some will be really sick then they will get better. All the measures to crush the economy doesn’t mean you’re not going to get sick. ... YOU STILL WILL. All of this to “flatten the curve”. Really?

Hi Brian,

The idea here is to flatten the curve to keep the health services from being overwhelmed. Example; A few years back I had a burst appendix. Went to the hospital and got emergency surgery and came out fine. If the health services are overwhelmed otherwise healthy people will be dying while the people who are going to die soon anyway are taking up all of the hospital beds.


I, like you, am pretty fatalistic about whether changing our life style to save my old body would be at all worth it, but the flattening of the curve idea does make sense to me.

 

[M1k3]

That’s great ... it means Dr. Doom must be wrong in his estimate that half the population of the earth is going to catch the disease. I wonder what he was thinking about.

More DOOM! MORE VIEWS!

Possibly? I don't know, I'm not him. Just speculating.

 

[Brian Weekley]

I agree with all of these sentiments. I just worry about those out of work with bills to pay. I guess with anything that’s unknown there will be no shortage of opinions and only time will tell. I only know that as I’ve said before I don’t want the responsibility of families ruining their lives just so that I might live a little longer .... and be able to buy a few more knives. After all that’s what life is really about. Haha!

 

[cheflife15]

I agree with all of these sentiments. I just worry about those out of work with bills to pay. I guess with anything that’s unknown there will be no shortage of opinions and only time will tell. I only know that as I’ve said before I don’t want the responsibility of families ruining their lives just so that I might live a little longer .... and be able to buy a few more knives. After all that’s what life is really about. Haha!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.amp.html

It's not just old people. A good percentage are 20 to 50 years old in the hospitals

 

[Brian Weekley]

Good point.

 

[Keith Sinclair]

Doom and Gloom is part of human nature throughout history. Anyone can make the case for their point of view.

So some at risk my generation 70+ a little thinning out so what a drop in the bucket 7.7 billion people

 

[Tim Rowland]

It has hit the Hotel industry HARD!
I am the executive chef of an upscale hotel in Atlanta, Ga.
Out of 17 kitchen staff members it is down to me and I had to choose between my 2 sous chefs to only keep 1 of them and change them to an hourly wage to cover the few shifts. All other staff got laid off.
My hotel has had cancellations of over $1 mil of business over the next 2 months.
It has been quite the somber week and tomorrow morning I will put out my final breakfast service for the the unforeseeable future.
I made a simple low country boil for our last meal during lunch today.

 

[nevrknow]

It has hit the Hotel industry HARD!
I am the executive chef of an upscale hotel in Atlanta, Ga.
Out of 17 kitchen staff members it is down to me and I had to choose between my 2 sous chefs to only keep 1 of them and change them to an hourly wage to cover the few shifts. All other staff got laid off.
My hotel has had cancellations of over $1 mil of business over the next 2 months.
It has been quite the somber week and tomorrow morning I will put out my final breakfast service for the the unforeseeable future.
I made a simple low country boil for our last meal during lunch today. View attachment 74577

Saw that myself. In Cumming ( few mins North of Atlanta) last Thursday at noon 82% occupancy. By 4pm it was down to 32%

 

[Nagakin]

So many shutdowns, I feel for the boys with nowhere to go when this is over. Our place lost 8 figures through summer, at least. I'm in a fortunate position...we throw three block parties a year that cover cost entirely. We'll bounce back.

The majority of my peers though? Warehouse work STARTS at max kitchen pay. Trade union TRAINS for 30% more than max kitchen pay. Everything is looking greener.

It's disheartening to see incredible cooks jumping ship because one paycheck is impossible to catch up on their salaries. A lot of these people worked two jobs as is. I know these guys won't be back after tasting real money, and I wish the best for them...but hell if I won't miss them.

 

[Tim Rowland]

Saw that myself. In Cumming ( few mins North of Atlanta) last Thursday at noon 82% occupancy. By 4pm it was down to 32%

Yeah It is crazy here in North Atlanta.
I live in Dawsonville btw, 52 mile 1 way trip to my hotel across the street from the Braves stadium.

My cooks were like family. I can only hope for the best for everyone including myself getting through this.
I have written a personalized letter of recommendation for each of them when the industry does start to come back. I had cooks who have worked at the hotel for 31 years.

 

[M1k3]

 

[Keith Sinclair]

Tim that country boil looks good are those blue Crabs? Hope this lockdown is effective so many people out of work.

 

[Tim Rowland]

Tim that country boil looks good are those blue Crabs? Hope this lockdown is effective so many people out of work.

Yes they are blue crabs from Savannah, Ga.

 

[Michi]

China has a billion people and came no where near 160 million infected. Theyre already on the way to improving

No.

Chinas biggest problem is that they have had only a few tens of thousands infected. So now, they have to figure out how to keep the other 0.9 billion or so bottled up until after we have a vaccine.

 

[Michi]

I don't either, I guess i missed that part too. Right now the world is at 300,000. Let's say that's off by 80 percent. Thats still only half a million. Thats light years away from 165 million just in the USA.

Only half a million. Which double every three or four days. That's 8 million 16 days from now, and 128 million 32 days from now.

Please, if you don't understand the maths, don't comment.

 

[cheflife15]

Only half a million. Which double every three or four days. That's 8 million 16 days from now, and 128 million 32 days from now.

Please, if you don't understand the maths, don't comment.

I was a math major. Youre giving a number of WORLDWIDE patients. He said 168 million in the U.S.. If you cant read dont comment.

 

[cheflife15]

No.

Chinas biggest problem is that they have had only a few tens of thousands infected. So now, they have to figure out how to keep the other 0.9 billion or so bottled up until after we have a vaccine.

You know 10s of thousands isn't .1 of a billion right? Lol dont ever comment so smuggly on my post mr math

 

[ian]

I was a math major. Youre giving a number of WORLDWIDE patients. He said 168 million in the U.S.. If you cant read dont comment.

I think Michi’s point is that in a situation of exponential growth, the current stats hardly even matter if the infected population is not contained. That is, you might argue that there are 10,000 people infected and the other guy might argue that there are currently 10 million, but in terms of the time needed to infect 50% of the world, these differences in initial quotas will only affect the estimates by a couple weeks or something.

That said, if the base of the exponential growth can be decreased (“flatten the curve”), 2 weeks starts to become longer, and maybe we’ll have enough time for science and facilities to catch up to the current predicament.