Covid: the shape of things to come

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Great write up of Histroy as I too know it...Europe looked a LOT different and the damage of the expansion of Russia was only minimized by having the western allies racing to the east...perhaps in future the transcript of the Jalta convention becomes accessible (not if there even is one, never looked for it).
https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/04...tcome of the,tried by an international court.

anyone sitting at Putin's table is still going to be a cousin three times removed ;-)


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perhaps someone should remind him of Stalin's promise, I'll see if I can find a phone nr;

Meanwhile, Stalin, whose forces occupied much of eastern Europe at the end of the war, reneged on his pledge to hold for free and democratic elections and instead established communist parties across eastern Europe.
 
Putin is popular in Russia he supports the church a large % of Russians are religious. He is seen as a strong leader that saved Russia. State misinformation media has crafted his savior story.

A video of Putin dressing down his spy chief was broadcast in Russia, so now it is everywhere. The great leader is in control.
 
Putin's main boost in popularity was the economical growth that started shortly after he got into power. Contrary to somewhat popular belief this had very little to do with any particular economical interventions on his part but relied almost entirely on rising energy prices boosting the income from fossile fuel exports - which is also one of his achilles heels and why 'defossilization' is such a scary word to Russia.

How popular Putin really is in Russia, just like any other aspect of national opinion, is very hard to actually determine. Doing opinion polling in an authoritarian state is an exercise in futility; people won't show the back of their tongue. There's plenty of people who dislike him but also plenty who do like him.
At the end of the day it's not a major concern for him since his regime does not need popular support to remain in power. A long history of suppression has also led to a relatively high degree of political apathy. People don't particularly care until things start affecting them on a personal level...
The Russian orthodox church is just a complete joke; they're just another arm of the regime at this point. I think you're also overestimating how religious Russia is after almost a century of communism. Like many other western countries it has a lot of non-practising 'statistical Christians'.

Being 'in control' is actually not how I'd describe the current situation for Putin. His information situation is at best questionable, he has different parts of his security establishment at eachothers throats (the Crimean bridge attack might well have been an internal affair), and the 'privatization' of the conflict with his shift towards PMCs is outright playing with fire that can have very dangerous long-term effects (surrendering the government monopoly on violence is one of the perfect ways to create the conditions for a civil war).
 
I was being sarcastic. During COVID told people was not that dangerous go to work no shutdowns. Quite a few Russians died. While he was isolated if people came to see him had to have disinfecting spray, mask & distancing.

You make good points esp. polling in dictatorship. No one expected Ukraine to hold out this long. Things aren't as good for people of Russia since invasion. There have been protest Putin swiftly takes care of that & blames it on Americans. KGB placing blame elsewhere. That's how he amassed enormous wealth.
 
Apologies; the sarcasm flew over my head. :) The goal of that footage of Putin chastasing his minions unironically was to try and boost his standing at the cost of those under him... make him look like the strongman. Those under him generally accept it because most are weak yaysayers who are selected more for loyalty than their competence. Anyone competent enough to be an actual threat usually doesn't stick around...

The best example is the previous defense minister Serdyukov. He actually made a genuine effort to tackle corruption and spending issues. Of course in the process he stepped on a lot of toes, so in a few years he got replaced again by Shoigu, under whom corruption flourished again.
Why Shoigu hasn't gotten the axe yet boggles the mind. He's been around long enough that you can assume he knows how to 'play the game', but given the cluster**** we've seen after the invasion started he was the first one you'd expect to be the sacrificial lamb. The only explanations I can come up with is that either he has enough dirt on people to secure his position, or he's simply preserved as a scapegoat for later.
 
https://www.science.org/content/art...ps-fuel-debate-covid-19-boosters-young-people
a nice review of the benefits and risks of covid boosters. it was in the most recent issue of science.

draw your own conclusions, but i'm in the age group that is the focus of the article (where risk-benefit ratio is most contested). i'm mostly concerned with long covid but am also slightly worried about vaccine side effects. i have to admit, i'm considering not getting a booster until more studies come out. the main reason is that paxlovid seems to still be effective, and as long as i have access to that (and can start taking it as soon as i test positive), i feel like that's the single biggest thing i can do to reduce my risk of long covid. booster might help some as well, but in my head, it's like an order of magnitude of difference in risk reduction if i get a symptomatic infection. also, if i need to get boosted for a job, for travel, to go to a party without lying to people, etc, i'm not sweating that. i'm not scared of getting another one, per se. but i'm also not chomping at the bit for another dose like i was before.
 
Things continuing to become ever more interesting…

“The Atlantic has come under fire for suggesting that all the terrible pandemic-era decisions over lockdowns, school closures, masking, and punishing an entire class of people who questioned the efficacy and wisdom of taking a rushed, experimental vaccine - for a virus with a 99% survival rate in most, should all be water under the bridge.”


https://www.zerohedge.com/political...sues-after-atlantic-suggests-amnesty-pandemic
 
Just googled 'zerohedge', I must say that looks like a fantastic source if you're into conspiracies.....
 
The name of the website certainly indicates that they’re not interested in nuance…

sansho said:
https://www.science.org/content/art...ps-fuel-debate-covid-19-boosters-young-people
a nice review of the benefits and risks of covid boosters. it was in the most recent issue of science.

draw your own conclusions, but i'm in the age group that is the focus of the article (where risk-benefit ratio is most contested). i'm mostly concerned with long covid but am also slightly worried about vaccine side effects. i have to admit, i'm considering not getting a booster until more studies come out. the main reason is that paxlovid seems to still be effective, and as long as i have access to that (and can start taking it as soon as i test positive), i feel like that's the single biggest thing i can do to reduce my risk of long covid. booster might help some as well, but in my head, it's like an order of magnitude of difference in risk reduction if i get a symptomatic infection. also, if i need to get boosted for a job, for travel, to go to a party without lying to people, etc, i'm not sweating that. i'm not scared of getting another one, per se. but i'm also not chomping at the bit for another dose like i was before.
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Can you get a paxlovid prescription? I’m kind of confused about the authorization. In the possibly outdated info I found, you have to be at high risk for severe covid to get a prescription. Also doesn’t seem like there’s a ton of info about paxlovid out there except for the very strong performance against the virus among unvaccinated people shown in the original study. Wonder when more studies are going to come out.
 
ian said:
Can you get a paxlovid prescription? I’m kind of confused about the authorization. In the possibly outdated info I found, you have to be at high risk for severe covid to get a prescription. Also doesn’t seem like there’s a ton of info about paxlovid out there except for the very strong performance against the virus among unvaccinated people shown in the original study. Wonder when more studies are going to come out.
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like any script, it depends on the doc/institution. i've heard really mixed stories on this one, though. some give it out like candy, others only want to prescribe it if you're dying.

imo worth finding out ahead of time if you can easily get it or not, but i guess either you can or you can't, so maybe it doesn't matter.

i got it when i had covid, and i thought it worked pretty well. just wish i took it a little sooner. right after diagnosis is ideal.
i recovered quickly, but i already lost my sense of smell and had the main symptoms by the time i started it.

someone i know that i probably transmitted it to took it with a day of symptoms starting (also the day after testing), and it went away for her in about a day. barely got symptoms.

it's labeled for use within 5 days of symptom onset, but by that point, symptoms often fully manifest anyway, so you throw away a lot of the potential benefit. better to take it immediately and arrest replication. obviously this hasn't been thoroughly studied yet, but i don't see how you'd get long covid if you never really get covid (very little tissue infected/affected).

the only side effect we really noticed was bad taste in mouth (commonly reported).

i bet it will get resistant eventually, though. just like antibiotics.
 
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it's a virus, those mutate and may become immune to an antiviral drug if the mechanism of action is no longer 'fitting' the virus but I don't think they get resistant
 
Combinatorial chemistry was developed in Budapest Hungary 1982. Since not only advances in computers also robotics have led to an industrial approach to combinatorial synthesis. Virtual library of mass production of small molecules.
 
it's absolutely bonkers as a Jewish person watching someone talk about how the media is controlled by "them" and just casually drop a ton of slurs.
 
MarcelNL said:
just that the mechanism of a virus evading a drug is different from how a bacteria becomes resistant to an AB.
Bacteria become resistant by misuse of antibiotics, not just due to that but to a large extent.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimicrobial_resistance
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to the extent that viruses and bacteria can be compared period, how is the mechanism not the same?
it's selection pressure on populations (of bacterial organisms or viral material) that have not been completely eradicated. this can happen in vitro and in vivo.
you can "misuse" antivirals just like antibiotics and increase the chance of resistant variants/strains dominating and spreading.

what distinction are you trying to make?
 
sansho said:
to the extent that viruses and bacteria can be compared period, how is the mechanism not the same?
it's selection pressure on populations (of bacterial organisms or viral material) that have not been completely eradicated. this can happen in vitro and in vivo.
you can "misuse" antivirals just like antibiotics and increase the chance of resistant variants/strains dominating and spreading.

what distinction are you trying to make?
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that from what I know (and that may be too little) viruses mutate all the time and may mutate in such a way that an antiviral drug is no longer effective, but that bacteria are more prone to becoming resistant due to natural selection which is aggravated by misuse of AB (folks not completing a treatment, too low doses, over the counter use etc)
 
mutation is the source of all new traits (except sort of in genetic engineering :)), including drug resistance traits (viral or otherwise).
new phenos can "randomly" appear on their own, but they are selected for by the environment. this applies to viruses.

this line of questioning and discussion is used in virology:
https://www.science.org/content/art...us-can-find-multiple-ways-evade-covid-19-drug
i still don't get what you're trying to say. antiviral (mis)use is selection pressure.
 
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