Covid: the shape of things to come

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Keith Sinclair

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Merkel has been in power for a long time. She has been around for several US presidents.

Is there a time limit in Germany or person can be elected over & over until defeated or decide not to run again.
 

Keith Sinclair

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Slightly off topic but I live in one of the few US states that does not require cyclists to wear helmets. I am heartened to say that I see a large percentage actually have the good sense to wear a helmet anyway while enjoying their motorcycle (my observations are anecdotal, I don't know the actual percentage). The others I've coined a special word for, I call them "donorcyclists."
Same here no helmet law. Being a two wheel junky Bicycles & Motorcycles most my life.
Still around thanks to a helmet.

People need laws to protect them from own stupidity.🤪. Hikers get lost in Hawaii & have to get rescued. Going into unknown treks with no water. I've hiked plenty these days a charged smart phone & solar phone charger go with me .
Standing out on wet rocks where water runoff is active. Getting washed off rocks when big wave comes. It happens every year most with tourist. Tourist die in Hawaii.
 

natto

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Merkel has been in power for a long time. She has been around for several US presidents.

Is there a time limit in Germany or person can be elected over & over until defeated or decide not to run again.
No, there is no limit I know of. But she didn't candidate again. It looks like she could have made the race some more times.
 

chefwp

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Unmasked, unvaccinated, and unmuzzled free thinker can now add 'unalive' to her list.
This may come across as Schadenfreude but please let me be very clear. I am in no way happy that people are suffering and dying from their own stupidity, in fact her death makes me very sad, it was so needless and preventable.

calfornia-anti-vax-mum-dies-of-covid
 

Keith Sinclair

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Japan has a huuuuuuuuge vax issue though - the country was under 5% vax'ed when the Olympics kicked off.

Most of Western Europe is much further along than the States, and it shows in the case rates. I can't say if it's a good thing to go maskless packed in with 100K people, but when you know that the vax rate is pushing 80% and the vax/neg test rate is 100% to get into the event, well, risk is mitigated.

In the US, there are too many people going all Braveheart on this particular soapbox.

And therefore, the US case toll and death toll is approaching 25% of the world's total per day.
Looks like you have a point. Watched on TV that thousands packed together at football games could be super spreader events. So far it has not happened over two weeks out. It's still
early in season, but checking vaccine apps to get in games seems to be working.
 

chefwp

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Looks like you have a point. Watched on TV that thousands packed together at football games could be super spreader events. So far it has not happened over two weeks out. It's still
early in season, but checking vaccine apps to get in games seems to be working.
There are other consequences of packing people into stadiums, Pittsburgh dad's weekly reflections on the most recent Steelers' game (home opener loss to the Raiders) he pointed out the following, I'm paraphrasing: It was a mistake to allow fans back in the arena, Ben is old, and old people don't like loud noises!"
 

natto

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The unvaccinated are pushed some more now. Restaurants and bars can choose between opening without restrictions with vaccinated and recovered people only. Allowing tested people to join the party means less seats, closing earlier for some. Tests are free here, but only for another few days.

Some other coutries in europe got harder restrictions for unvaccinated people. There was a close relation between restrictions and increasing vaccination rates.
 

chefwp

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The unvaccinated are pushed some more now. Restaurants and bars can choose between opening without restrictions with vaccinated and recovered people only. Allowing tested people to join the party means less seats, closing earlier for some. Tests are free here, but only for another few days.

Some other coutries in europe got harder restrictions for unvaccinated people. There was a close relation between restrictions and increasing vaccination rates.
I have a friend who runs a popular music club near Washington DC. A few months ago they limited admission to those people who are vaccinated. Despite all the angry comments they received form the local mouth breathers, their decision has really been a good one for their business. It turns out that vaccinated people are more willing to buy tickets and pack into a club to hear their favorite live act when they can reasonably believe they are not sitting next to the unvaccinated.
 

natto

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We got a insurance paying 2/3 of our income when we become ill. People in quarantaine get 2/3 too. This will change to nothing for unvaccinated people. in a few weeks.

The discussion about stealing their rights and freedom is firing up again, about making vaccination mandatory from behind. But they never care for the rights of people beyond their own group.

Here around are some people firing up the feel of beeing betrayed and exploited by the "others". The others may be pedestrians, the government or the Weltverschwörung, anyone will do the job. With covid they feel cheated for their constitutional rights. However, once feeling cheated everyone will support the leader who will fight the problem. Not supporting him would be stupid, or not?

Idon't care for this "leaders", they got the same rights as we all. As long as they don't violate laws they are free to do what they do. Making people angry is no crime.

My point is the people made angry. Enough people made angry will change our election on sunday. They are part of the game, of the society. some are our neighbours or friends.

I can't help it, this is important, but I got no idea what to do.
 

MarcelNL

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the observation that 'others' are to blame is pretty universal IME, and appliccable to many topics...it somehow appears to be genetically encoded into us humans....entitlement issort of an extension of that issue and it seems to be inversely correlatedwith IQ
 

ian

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The unvaccinated who are dying are doing a good job of purging the gene pool of stupidity.
Except that they take others down with them by spreading the virus even more…

Edit in response to @spaceconvoy’s comment: this post was mainly an argument against isolating off the unvaccinated and saying “good riddance to them, haha”, since their actions don’t just affect them. Didn’t mean to call them stupid, although I see that the post can be read that way. However, I think that in the absence of specific and unusual circumstances it’s a terrible and misguided choice.
 
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spaceconvoy

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So much moral superiority... If you believe the reason people refuse vaccines is because they're stupid or selfish, then you're just as small minded and tribalistic as they are. More importantly, publicly airing your animosity only makes you feel better while solidifying their resistance. Good job culture warriors for making the pandemic worse.
 

MarcelNL

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if those 'others' are vaccinated that risk is not very high IMO, but in principle you are right.
 

ian

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if those 'others' are vaccinated that risk is not very high IMO, but in principle you are right.
It's more than principle, I think. As an extreme example, if the world were 100% vaccinated the virus would not be able to spread nearly as fast, and might even die out. Any reduction in the rapidity of spread can have a huge effect, so every person that decides not to decrease their personal risk of acting as a vector contributes to the continuation of the pandemic. Breakthrough cases may be few and mild in comparison to cases among the unvaxed, but there are still significantly many by normal standards. Plus, there are lots of people like my 6 yr old that can't get vaxed yet (hopefully that'll change soon), but are still in danger. Finally, everyone should do what they can to fight the pandemic so we don't have to live like this forever, which is also a cost. There are tradeoffs (it's not that everyone should become a hermit for the next year, even though that would also help), but getting vaxed has so little cost (maybe it's hard psychologically for some) that not doing it is irresponsible absent extenuating circumstances.
 

tcmx3

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So much moral superiority... If you believe the reason people refuse vaccines is because they're stupid or selfish, then you're just as small minded and tribalistic as they are. More importantly, publicly airing your animosity only makes you feel better while solidifying their resistance. Good job culture warriors for making the pandemic worse.
the whole "hearts and minds" thing youre shilling is complete bull.

If Im not going to change someone's mind, and Im not, Im at least going to say what I think. Which is that it is pure, ugly selfishness. And that anyone who can get vaccinated and wont is either a bad person or so down the well of disinformation they need an intervention.

btw Im sympathetic to people whose work wont give them the recovery days or who dont have insurance and dont believe it's not a lie this one time when it's always a lie. those people dont post here though.
 
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chefwp

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So much moral superiority... If you believe the reason people refuse vaccines is because they're stupid or selfish, then you're just as small minded and tribalistic as they are. More importantly, publicly airing your animosity only makes you feel better while solidifying their resistance. Good job culture warriors for making the pandemic worse.
Name calling and put downs aside, I think society needs to understand why people aren't getting vaccinated. There is not one reason. I am willing to go out on a limb and say some people are not for very stupid reasons, ergo, yes, it makes them look stupid. This has been studied to some extent. According to the online news organization vox.com, these are the top reasons:

Reason 1: Lack of access, real or perceived
Reason 2: Covid-19 isn’t seen as a threat
Reason 3: Vaccine side effects
Reason 4: Lack of trust in the vaccines
Reason 5: Lack of trust in institutions
Reason 6: A variety of conspiracy theories

If you pay attention to a variety of news organizations, you will notice that there seems to be an interest in running stories about the victims of Covid-19 that fall into some of the following categories: people that denied there is a pandemic, people that thought there were no real grave risks to contracting it, or people that had, when alive, publicly misinformed their fellow citizens with misinformation and conspiracy theories. If you can overlook the obvious moralizing and the feelings of Schadenfreude the articles might induce for a moment, is it a valid question to ask, "do making these stories public help sway people to making better decisions?" I think the answer is 'it should,' but as you pointed out, people are incredibly dug-in to their positions and things like facts, scientific analysis, and even these anecdotal stories probably is not going to sway many, which is a shame.
 
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Keith Sinclair

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Another pregnant mother died here. Many women felt that didn't want to take vaccine might harm the developing fetus. These aren't bad people just misinformed there are many to feed into that.
 

Barmoley

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It's more than principle, I think. As an extreme example, if the world were 100% vaccinated the virus would not be able to spread nearly as fast, and might even die out. Any reduction in the rapidity of spread can have a huge effect, so every person that decides not to decrease their personal risk of acting as a vector contributes to the continuation of the pandemic. Breakthrough cases may be few and mild in comparison to cases among the unvaxed, but there are still significantly many by normal standards. Plus, there are lots of people like my 6 yr old that can't get vaxed yet (hopefully that'll change soon), but are still in danger. Finally, everyone should do what they can to fight the pandemic so we don't have to live like this forever, which is also a cost. There are tradeoffs (it's not that everyone should become a hermit for the next year, even though that would also help), but getting vaxed has so little cost (maybe it's hard psychologically for some) that not doing it is irresponsible absent extenuating circumstances.
Fortunately, serious cases among children and young adults are very rare. Delta has been claimed to be more dangerous for the young, probably from just being more contagious, but even delta carries very low risk.

There is an argument that there might be some long term neurological damage from covid and that might affect children, but this hasn't been backed up by data so far, might change in the future.

I agree with @MarcelNL that if all vulnerable would get vaccinated there would be a lot less deaths and serious illness. Some can't due to medical reasons, the number of these is relatively small and some choose not to. Why vulnerable don't want to get the vaccine is puzzling to me 🤷‍♂️

As far as getting rid of the virus permanently, it doesn't seem to be likely anytime soon. At the moment it looks like it will become more alike to seasonal flu, which kills people every year and we continue to live with it. It might disappear, just at the moment doesn't look likely.
 

MarcelNL

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IMO the biggest challenge at hand is to get whatever decently effective vaccine (as in effective in keeping folks from serious effects of Covid, not not getting it) to the rest of the world...just tlike @Barmoley mentioned earlier.

The naysayers in the end can get vaccinated if the hassle is too much or if the right methods are found to communicate with them, provided the rest does not budge on restrictions...those without actual access to vaccines should now be targeted first IMO.
 

MarcelNL

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Now that is a bluff in ANY country around the world...let's assume that even a mere 15 percent of nurses ultimately need to be replaces it is impossible due to a long existent shortage of nurses....
 

spaceconvoy

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the whole "hearts and minds" thing youre shilling is complete bull.

If Im not going to change someone's mind, and Im not, Im at least going to say what I think. Which is that it is pure, ugly selfishness. And that anyone who can get vaccinated and wont is either a bad person or so down the well of disinformation they need an intervention.

btw Im sympathetic to people whose work wont give them the recovery days or who dont have insurance and dont believe it's not a lie this one time when it's always a lie. those people dont post here though.
What makes you qualified to determine it's 'complete bull'? Unless you're an expert in public health, I'd suggest you listen to those who are. Not me, but this is what they're saying. We've seen exactly the same dynamic around seatbelt use in the 80s and condom usage when AIDS first appeared. Do you have any evidence that your preferred method of public shaming works, or does it just feel cathartic. How are you any less selfish?

I'm assuming you believe in science and share the goal of increasing the percentage of vaccinated people, perhaps I'm mistaken. But hey, at least you have your moral superiority and righteous indignation.
 

tcmx3

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What makes you qualified to determine it's 'complete bull'? Unless you're an expert in public health, I'd suggest you listen to those who are. Not me, but this is what they're saying. We've seen exactly the same dynamic around seatbelt use in the 80s and condom usage when AIDS first appeared. Do you have any evidence that your preferred method of public shaming works, or does it just feel cathartic. How are you any less selfish?

I'm assuming you believe in science and share the goal of increasing the percentage of vaccinated people, perhaps I'm mistaken. But hey, at least you have your moral superiority and righteous indignation.
I wasnt born yesterday.

I know that you and everyone else who pulls this shtick isnt doing it for "the science" or for "civility", but instead to stop any discussion that rightly names selfish behavior as selfish, or in other cases often used to shut down any valid criticism of people being ****y more generally.

If you are a healthy adult who could just take a trip down to the Walgreens and get your vaccine and you choose not to you're selfish. That's it. There's no CDC guideline telling me to be nice to the little babies who can't handle being accurately named for their awfulness. You can try the sleight of hand here by saying it's about "the science" or condom use for aids but you are talking to a person who works with causality professionally so unfortunately such basic tricks dont really do much for me.
 

chefwp

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Fortunately, serious cases among children and young adults are very rare. Delta has been claimed to be more dangerous for the young, probably from just being more contagious, but even delta carries very low risk.
I'm sure that is very little solace to the parents of the 500-or-so children that have died in the US from covid so far, and that number will only grow. However, as a percentage of the population, you are correct, it is still rare, no argument there. Yet don't discount the relative risk that children bring to communities as potential vectors of the disease, especially with the push to return them to school. This is exceptionally true in places like Florida and Texas where the idiot governors are putting their own political ambitions above all as they tried to prevent schools from having mask mandates. Parents with underlying health conditions or that are caretakers to vulnerable elderly people I know had very mixed feelings about returning their children to school and not because of the risk to the children themselves, but the potential to undo all the precautions they took in the previous year to protect the vulnerable members of their households. I had mixed feelings myself returning my own kids, particularly the one too young to get inoculated, to in-person studies. Be that as it may, I could not envision them having another year like the one prior, kids need to go back, at least that is the opinion I came to and so far still hold. Of course this could all change rapidly, if the numbers get really bad <oh please no>, kids might be returning to cyber at-home learning whether we like it or not and it may not be a parents' choice.
 

Keith Sinclair

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There are many multigenerational homes here
Housing is so expensive. Kids & grandkids live with grandparents.

My niece who was a school teacher is home schooling her kids with help of computer. During this covid thing we are not out of yet.

Many have to work so are glad schools are open again.
 

tcmx3

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There are many multigenerational homes here
Housing is so expensive. Kids & grandkids live with grandparents.

My niece who was a school teacher is home schooling her kids with help of computer. During this covid thing we are not out of yet.

Many have to work so are glad schools are open again.
if only there we some kind of risk pooling we could do such that when vulnerable members of our group were hard hit by things beyond their control a tiny percentage the group's combined resources could keep them afloat until the situation is resolved.

too bad no such thing can exist here.
 

spaceconvoy

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I wasnt born yesterday.

I know that you and everyone else who pulls this shtick isnt doing it for "the science" or for "civility", but instead to stop any discussion that rightly names selfish behavior as selfish, or in other cases often used to shut down any valid criticism of people being ****y more generally.

If you are a healthy adult who could just take a trip down to the Walgreens and get your vaccine and you choose not to you're selfish. That's it. There's no CDC guideline telling me to be nice to the little babies who can't handle being accurately named for their awfulness. You can try the sleight of hand here by saying it's about "the science" or condom use for aids but you are talking to a person who works with causality professionally so unfortunately such basic tricks dont really do much for me.
You're missing my point. I agree with you that people who refuse the vaccine are making the world a worse place for entirely selfish reasons. My point is that so are you. If you actually cared about increasing vaccine uptake, you wouldn't loudly proclaim your judgment on a public forum. Go ahead and vent all you want in private among others who you're certain share your sentiments. But public shaming will only solidify resistance among any unvaccinated lurkers who might be reading this. You are playing a small part in prolonging this pandemic by selfishly indulging in a puritanical desire to shame bad actors publicly. I share your anger with their behavior, but your method is entirely counter-productive if the goal is to get more people vaccinated.
 
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