Covid: the shape of things to come

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Michi

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Helpful language? Yes of course. But whispering don't always work on a stubborn horse, stronger languages like the above are warranted.
Yes. The same people who say that Covid is a hoax, or that vaccines don't work, or any number of other things won't hesitate to show up at a hospital when they are in trouble.

The news is full of stories of Covid patients who (some of them on their deathbed) implore people to get vaccinated. But, of course, what would they know? They've probably been bribed by the big Pharma industrial complex to go over to the Dark Side… :(
 

riba

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A friend of a friend and her mum arranged a fake vaccination proof (Russia) and traveled around. Both are in the ICU as we speak. I think in retrospect they regret some of their actions.

Took a flight yesterday. Main purpose of masks seem to be to keep the chin warm
 

daveb

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I didn't have to google the Dean.

"Did we quit when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor?" Best movie ever.

Thinking about it, the idea of double secret probation has some merit as well :cool:
 

Luftmensch

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P.S: I live among dairy and cattle producers, our term for that particular medicine is 'cattle dewormer'
Yeah... but how much more awesome would it be to say... "she has heartworm the size of Phar Lap's"

... particularly since the Melbourne Cup is coming up
 

tcmx3

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so probably not relevant to most folks but the FIDE Grand Swiss (chess tournament) is scheduled to be held in Latvia, which is going into full lockdown due to COVID situation, and within minutes FIDE announced "don't worry we're going to get an exemption so we can hold our event" 🤡

didnt even stop to think if it was a good idea to still hold the tournament...
 

gregfisk

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This is a classic example of anecdotal evidence. There is nothing to show what would have happened to those 4000 people otherwise. There is nothing to show that the drug didn't do any harm (other than that none of them died). For all we know, some of those people might have had worse symptoms than they would have had without the drug.

I'm afraid that this is not how science works. Without proper double-blinded clinical trials, it is just that: anecdotal evidence. And the plural of "anecdote" is "anecdotes", not "fact" or "truth".
Thank you Richi,

now I don’t have to write it.

unreal.
 

MarcelNL

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here is a result of a meta analysis of clinical studies on Ivermectin by some folks I hold in high regard, and even more important; they're not US based and therefore more likely to be less biased....bottom line is the studies done so far mostly suck


can we now put the Ivermectin stuff to bed?
 

gregfisk

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here is a result of a meta analysis of clinical studies on Ivermectin by some folks I hold in high regard, and even more important; they're not US based and therefore more likely to be less biased....bottom line is the studies done so far mostly suck


can we now put the Ivermectin stuff to bed?
hmm, sounds like it doesn’t work?
 

ian

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Been ages since I saw it, but it brings up good memories. :)
 

EricEricEric

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This seems to becoming more and more common. I had a friend that was admitted to my hospital, he’s a young chef, after his first vaccination with chest pain. His troponin levels were elevated after his first COVID immunization

Looks like almost all of the Nordic countries are not allowing anyone under the age of 31 to receive the Moderna vaccination for this very reason.

Other countries are seeing the same side effects as well. I can’t help but feel we are going to see more and more information come out after the fact

6791F022-1CCD-4220-BE5B-C1DB3C4DA1A9.jpeg
 

Michi

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I can’t help but feel we are going to see more and more information come out after the fact
Well done again, @EricEricEric, what a most beautiful specimen of cherry picking!

The table has 81 cells, and the 5770 figure refers to the one cell with the highest value (173.3). And that is for a highly-selective group, males aged 18-24 after dose 2 in Ontario.

For comparison, here is a presentation that discusses the topic in quite some detail. That presentation is from the CDC. The presentation is complete, instead of showing just a single data item that makes the poster's point.

I draw your attention to page 28, which contains a very similar table. That table's reporting rates are well below half of the Ontario sample. It would also be really good to take a look at page 30 ff, which presents risk comparisons of Covid and myocarditis. (Hint: the risk of serious complications or death from Covid is orders of magnitude larger.)

Finally, I would note that the overall death rate for Covid in the US is somewhere around 1.6%. That's a cool 16,000 dead people per million reported infections. The death rate from myocarditis complications following an mRNA vaccine is below 20.

I can only assume that you think it is worthwhile to draw attention to 20 deaths per million from the vaccine, as opposed to 16000 deaths from Covid. My heart-felt thanks for your consideration!
 
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spaceconvoy

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And fluvoxamine still hasn't been advertised reported on by Fox News. I'm still a bit baffled why the anti-vaxers aren't interested in the one drug that's shown measurable results in clinical trials. My only theories:

- Since it's an antidepressant they're afraid taking it once will 'kill your libido' (the headline of the top result for 'fluvoxamine' on foxnews dot com). The venn diagram of 'anti-vax' and 'anti-antidepressants' might be close to a circle.

- Financial interests aren't pushing it, which I realize sounds like a conspiracy theory, but can't be ruled out.

- But I think the most likely explanation is that since the measured results are somewhat weak (30% reduction in severe cases/hospitalizations) it's less appealing than the mythologized version of ivermectin that 'the medical industry doesn't want you to know about' or whatever, which they're able to imagine is 100% effective.
 

big_adventure

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This seems to becoming more and more common. I had a friend that was admitted to my hospital, he’s a young chef, after his first vaccination with chest pain. His troponin levels were elevated after his first COVID immunization

Looks like almost all of the Nordic countries are not allowing anyone under the age of 31 to receive the Moderna vaccination for this very reason.

Other countries are seeing the same side effects as well. I can’t help but feel we are going to see more and more information come out after the fact

View attachment 148321
Michi already debunked the hell out of this, but I'll point two things:

1. The "Note:" disclaimer under the table. It says that this is anything reported, whether or not the reports actually meet the expected case definition.

and

2. Those rates are, based on previous reports I've read, roughly equal to the background rates of those conditions. The first report of this came out about the Astra vaccine IIRC, and it was pulled for a week or two. Thing is, the rate of the conditions that led to the pull was LESS THAN the background rate for the diseases. There were something like 7 cases out of the set of the reports, which was less than the expected 8 cases you'd have seen if you did nothing. Small sample size here applies, of course, but that's why the vaccine was put back into active service basically immediately. Precaution led to the pause, mathematics led to the unpause.
 

MarcelNL

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I'd say that anyone who is a sceptic of pharma AND distrusts regulatory authorities at the same time ought to be forced to take anti depressants/anti psychotics; for one they for sure show signs of paranoia, are at risk of inflicting bodily harm to themselves and others, and the side effect of decreased libido serves a great cause
:angel:
 

MarcelNL

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More importantly; many countries are in the same predicament, dealing with high numbers of unvaccinated people flooding hospitals with Covid now getting to the breaking point again so measures need to be put in place....plenty reason for differentiating measures between vaccinated and non vaccinated, and I wonder what my Govt will do....I now that there are many places where a differentiation is put in place..
 

spaceconvoy

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I've been talking about fluvoxamine for months now, and it was first identified as a potential covid treatment almost a year ago. If the antivaxers were going to latch on to this, they would have already. Like I've said before, the problems with it (in the eyes of antivaxers) are:
- It's an antidepressant
- The effects are too weak
- It's accepted by the medical industry
- Their media networks aren't promoting it

Antivaxers are nearly as suspicious of psychiatric medication as they are of vaccines. It doesn't prevent infections, and only mildly decreases the risk of hospitalization. Plus the medical industry supports it. Much better to have a mythical dark horse you can imagine has any effect you want and whose existence is being suppressed by powerful elites (ivermectin), than a mediocre known-quantity with institutional support.
 

MarcelNL

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indeed, it's hardly a treatment, given the small effect it has...at best it's adjuvant therapy so why bother with this product of pharma if you can do better with a vaccine that also comes from the pipeline of pharma?
 

spaceconvoy

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Well it's better than nothing in remote areas/developing countries without access to vaccines. Even vaccines that don't need refrigeration still require sterile needles and trained people to administer them.
 

MarcelNL

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Well it's better than nothing in remote areas/developing countries without access to vaccines. Even vaccines that don't need refrigeration still require sterile needles and trained people to administer them.
I take it you read the risk reduction is SMALL and the study too...?

It was a 5% decrease in absolute risk and a 32% decrease in relative risk.

and

It wasn't a perfect study, they noted. It was done in Brazil, and the patients had a higher rate of hospitalization than Covid-19 patients in other clinical trials.
 

Jovidah

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This seems to becoming more and more common. I had a friend that was admitted to my hospital, he’s a young chef, after his first vaccination with chest pain. His troponin levels were elevated after his first COVID immunization

Looks like almost all of the Nordic countries are not allowing anyone under the age of 31 to receive the Moderna vaccination for this very reason.

Other countries are seeing the same side effects as well. I can’t help but feel we are going to see more and more information come out after the fact

View attachment 148321
Big adventure already said most there is to say. Over here Moderna is mostly reserved for older people here, but I can't remember exactly if this was because it showed higher efficiency there or if it was because of a 'potential 0.001% chance at maybe something happening'. We're in the luxurious position where we can essentially be vaccinesnobs and stop using vaccines even if only because there's an appearance of side-effects simply because we have other options. My take is that the government is playing it extra safe because the main concern here is that even just rumors have the potential to undermine willingness to vaccinate, especially when the majority of people have no clue how to read or interpret medical research and the statistics behind dthem.

I'm not sure what 'more information' you're expecting when these vaccines already went through trials with around 50k test subjects before they went into circulation, and currently already millions of doses in the wild.
The only thing we're really seeing is massively lower hospitalization and death rates among vaccinated populations. The only major negative we've found out is that the effects seems to wear off over time, hence all the buzz about booster shots.

Michi already debunked the hell out of this, but I'll point two things:

1. The "Note:" disclaimer under the table. It says that this is anything reported, whether or not the reports actually meet the expected case definition.

and

2. Those rates are, based on previous reports I've read, roughly equal to the background rates of those conditions. The first report of this came out about the Astra vaccine IIRC, and it was pulled for a week or two. Thing is, the rate of the conditions that led to the pull was LESS THAN the background rate for the diseases. There were something like 7 cases out of the set of the reports, which was less than the expected 8 cases you'd have seen if you did nothing. Small sample size here applies, of course, but that's why the vaccine was put back into active service basically immediately. Precaution led to the pause, mathematics led to the unpause.
Exactly, point 2. The expected rate. I actually dug into this when it came to AstraZenica because there were some concerns about trombosis (when I was about to get my own shots). But when you actually looked into the numbers the incidence was actually lower than the expected rate among an average population. The problem is that this is a story that's hard to explain to the general population after the original story took root; essentially the reputation is 'tainted', even when this isn't necessarily justified. For this reason AstraZenica has mostly fallen out of use here, not because there's anything wrong with it, but because the main concern at this point is vaccine-acceptance; the side effects aren't the problem. But it's easier to simply switch to Pfizer to sidestep the issue.

I've been talking about fluvoxamine for months now, and it was first identified as a potential covid treatment almost a year ago. If the antivaxers were going to latch on to this, they would have already. Like I've said before, the problems with it (in the eyes of antivaxers) are:
- It's an antidepressant
- The effects are too weak
- It's accepted by the medical industry
- Their media networks aren't promoting it

Antivaxers are nearly as suspicious of psychiatric medication as they are of vaccines. It doesn't prevent infections, and only mildly decreases the risk of hospitalization. Plus the medical industry supports it. Much better to have a mythical dark horse you can imagine has any effect you want and whose existence is being suppressed by powerful elites (ivermectin), than a mediocre known-quantity with institutional support.
While I don't know the specifics about this specific thing, I think it's sometimes forgotten that many different things have been tried, and are being used to improve treatment once a case gets bad enough to reach a hospital. There isn't anything wrong with that; and it's actually showing that quite some progress has been made here, since the ratio of hospitalized to ER / deaths has improved significantly since the start of the epidemic. Most of the stuff being done never got attention since this was never a particularly controversial issue (and probably too technical for most people not employed in the treatment side).

Where it becomes problematic is when these things are proposed as an alternative to vaccines. Any improvements in treatment are great and still worthwhile to investigate, it's just completely silly to use it as an argument against the vaccines. Just like it's silly to ignore them when we do have working vaccines. As long as it works it's worthwhile to pursue and apply, and this really shouldn't be controversial.
It's just silly when it becomes an antivax argument. That's like throwing away your smoke alarms and building a campfire in your living room just because you bought this awesome new fire extinguisher....
 

juice

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At least the people taking it will be less depressed even if it turns out it doesn't work for covid.
Unlikely, given most deliberately prescribed antidepressants do bugger all.

The problem is that this is a story that's hard to explain to the general population after the original story took root; essentially the reputation is 'tainted', even when this isn't necessarily justified.
Yeah, we had the same kind of stupid reaction down here as well. (I've had both my AZ shots, three months apart, blah blah.)
 

MarcelNL

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not so sure it was stupid to pause using AZ, if the side effect is severe enough you don't want to be overtaken by a flooding of cases because of indecisivenes...just keep in mind that a gazillion folks got the shots every week...I am glad it was not my call to make...
 

juice

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not so sure it was stupid to pause using AZ, if the side effect is severe enough you don't want to be overtaken by a flooding of cases
But it wasn't, and never was going to be. They delivered the warning in a truly stupid fashion and caused all sorts of problems down here with people not getting injected as a result, putting us WAY behind schedule.
 

Jovidah

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not so sure it was stupid to pause using AZ, if the side effect is severe enough you don't want to be overtaken by a flooding of cases because of indecisivenes...just keep in mind that a gazillion folks got the shots every week...I am glad it was not my call to make...
Yeah it's a difficult position to be in. You want to be prudent because even if the side-effects being brought up are minimal or even completely absent, it might severely undermine vaccine acceptance. And if there's even a hint of potential severe side-effects, better safe than sorry applies.
I'm not even sure how much it really delayed vaccinations here? I think at the time we already had a mix of other vaccines available, and I think we mostly just went full-Pfizer for certain age ranges. I think that may have swayed the decision; why take the risk on keeping a vaccine with a PR problem in rotation, when you have alternatives available.
 
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