Covid: the shape of things to come

[daveb]

Thanks Ian. I guess I get wound up with both sides when the use "science" to explain past events that they (seemingly) have no effing idea about and with no regard to the consequences of their "solutions".

I'm a simple old man but do remember when science could be used as a predictive tool. Can anyone take the available data and predict, accurately, what the Covid rates will be next month and where? There are plenty who will make SWAGs and then use new science to explain why they were wrong - if they even acknowledge they were wrong.

In the real world I've had to compile lists of employees by vax status, submit copies of vax cards (against Fl law by the way), compile lists of vax objections (which will all be denied) and have to be prepared to lose all non-vax employees on Dec 5. Merry Christmas. My company has been very clear that they will fight any unemployment action based on the employees vax choice. All while Covid vax mandates are on hold through court challenge. And yes, I'm dusting off resume.

 

[Matus]

Since the discussion is getting too serious at times (even though, sadly, for good reasons), I just leave this here ...

 

[Keith Sinclair]

In the USA many people are obese & have under lying conditions, not to mention old age.

These are the ones that get hit hardest.

As for mask and having disinfecting wipes and gel in my car have not even had anything since covid 19 started. Makes you realize that a few good habits truly make a difference. I knew that I caught colds in past because touched something or was around sick people that still went to work. Then touched my face before washing hands. Just took a virus that is a threat to senors to make you change habits hopefully for good as these virus & variants are basic continuing biological condition

 

[MarcelNL]

@daveb There certainly are data scientists making models capable of making very accurate predictions, and they actually do publish them in the NL ...whether politicians follow those predictions when making decisions is another topic.

@Matus those breakdowns are also available, your point is totally correct yet I did not wat to end up with number salad...I mean, it's not as if we do not have access to the data or there is nobody looking at the data that knows what they are doing...I just don't understand why seemingly reasonable people would care to ignore the obvious facts or believe someone talking nonsense without even trying to find the data.

Here you find the recent data that roughly correlates with the article I quoted, though you may have to learn Dutch ;-)
https://covid-19.sciensano.be/sites... REPORT_COVID-19 HOSPITALISED PATIENTS_NL.pdf

 

[user 16756]

@daveb There certainly are data scientists making models capable of making very accurate predictions, and they actually do publish them in the NL ...whether politicians follow those predictions when making decisions is another topic.

people like Dave do not listen to us. look at the prior conversation. it is impossible to give a satisfactory answer to someone like him because his response to not understanding empirical methodology is not to listen, it is instead to throw his hands up and say "both sides" as cover and keep on believing what he already believes.

humorously that contingent is really convinced they know better too. but I mean the world doesnt agree that's why I get to do what I do professionally and they dont

 

[ian]

people like Dave do not listen to us. look at the prior conversation. it is impossible to give a satisfactory answer to someone like him because his response to not understanding empirical methodology is not to listen, it is instead to throw his hands up and say "both sides" as cover and keep on believing what he already believes.

humorously that contingent is really convinced they know better too. but I mean the world doesnt agree that's why I get to do what I do professionally and they dont

Hey come on now, it’s possible to disagree with someone without insulting them.

 

[Jovidah]

people like Dave do not listen to us. look at the prior conversation. it is impossible to give a satisfactory answer to someone like him because his response to not understanding empirical methodology is not to listen, it is instead to throw his hands up and say "both sides" as cover and keep on believing what he already believes.

humorously that contingent is really convinced they know better too. but I mean the world doesnt agree that's why I get to do what I do professionally and they dont

I don't want to nitpick too much (or insert myself into this fight), but if you go back far enough you'll see Dave commenting that he did get vaccinated.

 

[user 16756]

Hey come on now, it’s possible to disagree with someone without insulting them.

Im not insulting him. Im explaining the pattern of behavior, that's all.

If I were to go into the BoH section of the forum and start being as aggressively ignorant, it would be perfectly appropriate for people to do the same. you will notice, however, a lack of posts on my account explaining to professionals in the food industry how their kitchens work.

what do you want me to say? that I respect his opinion on something he isnt qualified to talk about? not everyone has something valuable to add about every subject. Im not gonna go into the metallurgy threads or professional kitchen threads and act like Dave does because it's awful behavior IMO, and him being an admin doesnt change that IMO

as it happens I am a professional in the area of statistics and experimental methodology. if I see someone trying to state something as obviously incorrect as what started this, Im going to correct them.

 

[user 16756]

I don't want to nitpick too much (or insert myself into this fight), but if you go back far enough you'll see Dave commenting that he did get vaccinated.

this isnt about 1 person getting vaccinated. it's about a horrific false equivalence that suggests that the people trying desperately to improve the situation are at all equal to the horse dewormer facebook people. in the US we have had hundreds of thousands of deaths due to covid and some people are making it worse for politically motivated reasons.

to say that they have just as much claim to "the science" is insulting to the dead, and those who will live with covid complications for the rest of their lives.

 

[Jovidah]

My point was just that I'd be hesitant to make any assumptions about what 'camp' someone is in - if any.
I understand where you're coming from and I agree with a lot of what you're saying - but I can also understand his position that some well-intended policy measures to improve the situation might have other unintended consequences 'on the ground'.

 

[mpier]

Im not insulting him. Im explaining the pattern of behavior, that's all.

If I were to go into the BoH section of the forum and start being as aggressively ignorant, it would be perfectly appropriate for people to do the same. you will notice, however, a lack of posts on my account explaining to professionals in the food industry how their kitchens work.

what do you want me to say? that I respect his opinion on something he isnt qualified to talk about? not everyone has something valuable to add about every subject. Im not gonna go into the metallurgy threads or professional kitchen threads and act like Dave does because it's awful behavior IMO, and him being an admin doesnt change that IMO

as it happens I am a professional in the area of statistics and experimental methodology. if I see someone trying to state something as obviously incorrect as what started this, Im going to correct them.

you are and have been completely insulting people with your little high on the horse jabs and yet you are so ignorant you can’t see it I guess.

 

[ian]

what do you want me to say? that I respect his opinion on something he isnt qualified to talk about? not everyone has something valuable to add about every subject. Im not gonna go into the metallurgy threads or professional kitchen threads and act like Dave does because it's awful behavior IMO, and him being an admin doesnt change that IMO

Hmmm, I don't think you have to respect someone's opinion, it's just that your criticism is essentially "this person is beyond hope", which is uncharitabe and not helpful. If you started telling people how to run a commercial kitchen in the BoH threads, I'd hope that people would just tell you why you're wrong. But in some sense that's also a more extreme example than what's happening here. This is a forum for knife nerds, so presumably at least 80% of the people responding in the BoH thread would be actual experts who spend their days working in kitchens, which would make your opinion really stand out. This thread isn't for experts --- it's just for us all to b*tch about covid. Basically noone here is an actual expert on what they post here. Yes, some people have more scientific background than others, others may be experts in statistical methods, and there are even one or two people who work in epidemiology, but we're basically all just saying stuff we got from the media, or at best by reading the abstracts or first couple pages of a few research studies.

This kind of attitude just doesn't help. If you really think people on here are beyond hope, why comment? All it does is turn the conversation sour and makes people more entrenched. I mean, you asked "what do you want me to say", and while I'd really want you to say what comes genuinely from your own thoughts, I did also respond to Dave's post, so presumably that's one example of what I think is a reasonable response.

 

[user 16756]

If you really think people on here are beyond hope, why comment?

because we should not allow voices that give credence to information that has a human cost to go unchallenged.

furthermore, as a site administrator, what Dave says is easily interpretable as a tacit endorsement.

if there is one thing COVID has made clear, it is that certain demographics, including the one most represented on this forum, give inadequate consideration to the consequences of their actions. this is a perfect example of that

 

[ian]

because we should not allow voices that give credence to information that has a human cost to go unchallenged.

Fair enough, there. Maybe I shouldn't have said "why comment". My general point, though, is that many people commenting on this thread are able to challenge someone without insulting or dismissing them, and that usually ends up being more effective.

 

[mpier]

Fair enough, there. Maybe I shouldn't have said "why comment". My general point, though, is that many people commenting on this thread are able to challenge someone without insulting or dismissing them, and that usually ends up being more effective.

exactly

 

[gregfisk]

tcmx3, while I agree with your thoughts on this whole Covid issue I don’t think insulting people who don’t agree with you is productive. Unfortunately your not going to change anyone’s mind no matter how solid your statistics are. As of about a week ago in the US 91% of Democrats and 56% of Republicans are vaccinated. For a deadly virus that doesn’t have anything to do with politics that is a remarkable statistic. There is obviously a lot of misinformation being spread about and that information has been deadly. While mandates are fairly harsh, at this point in time I think they are needed. From what I’ve read regarding people leaving in mass because of mandates it just isn’t happening. When it comes right down to it most people will get vaccinated rather than lose their livelihood.

 

[Barmoley]

The area where I live is very heavily democratic leaning. The restaurants in the area can't find workers. The Starbucks close to me now closes at 2:30 pm because they can't find vaccinated workers. Most people working at restaurants and Starbucks are young people in their 20s or early 30s. Gymnastics gyms in the area can't find coaches for the same reason and the coach demographic is similar. So at least in my tiny sample of the economy people are leaving their jobs due to mandates.

Now, I believe the vaccines work and are safe for most, so I don't necessarily understand what the issue is, but we can't deny that part of the population that is less hit by serious covid danger is not willing to be vaccinated and is perfectly fine leaving their jobs.

 

[user 16756]

The area where I live is very heavily democratic leaning. The restaurants in the area can't find workers. The Starbucks close to me now closes at 2:30 pm because they can't find vaccinated workers. Most people working at restaurants and Starbucks are young people in their 20s or early 30s. Gymnastics gyms in the area can't find coaches for the same reason and the coach demographic is similar. So at least in my tiny sample of the economy people are leaving their jobs due to mandates.

there is a country wide shortage of employees for jobs that are exempt from minimum wage laws, and the ones at minimum wage arent doing that much better. especially with Amazon paying 15/hr in most of these markets. wouldnt it be at least as likely that that is the explanation for what you're seeing?

you say it's "due" to the mandates but out of curiosity how are you establishing it is the mandates causing the shortage and not too many alternative job options, expanded unemployment benefits (though there's a TON of evidence now those did not depress the supply of workers), etc?

btw as additional counter-evidence, I live in a state where the state legislature leans HARD the other direction and pre-empts nearly all local laws and we have the exact same problems. what my area and yours share in common is that there is now significant upward wage pressure and people simply do not have to agree to work for so little anymore.

 

[Edge]

because we should not allow voices that give credence to information that has a human cost to go unchallenged.

furthermore, as a site administrator, what Dave says is easily interpretable as a tacit endorsement.

if there is one thing COVID has made clear, it is that certain demographics, including the one most represented on this forum, give inadequate consideration to the consequences of their actions. this is a perfect example of that

And I endorse @daveb and his postings. And I have found that a some folks think that those that don't agree with them or biased or ignorant. And I'm happy you have that job. But I have found that numbers/statistics can prove anything. It's just how you word the question to get the answers you are wanting.

And everyone here can lay off the insults to others. No one here is better than another, even if they think they are.

 

[Helicon]

So at least in my tiny sample of the economy people are leaving their jobs due to mandates.

Now, I believe the vaccines work and are safe for most, so I don't necessarily understand what the issue is, but we can't deny that part of the population that is less hit by serious covid danger is not willing to be vaccinated and is perfectly fine leaving their jobs.

You've made a rather wild assumption in your post, specifically that people are leaving their jobs *because* of vaccine mandates. Plenty of hospitality and service workers have left similar low-paying jobs in other countries, too, especially younger ones, and that's not because of mandates – because by and large there aren't any. What evidence do you have that this is related to vaccine mandates, instead of income supports and unemployment payments that might encourage people to seek work in other industries?

 

[Matus]

Two things …

1) @tcmx3 - you don’t get along with Dave’s style and opinions. We got that. But you either find a way to express your disagreement without attacking him, or you find yourself a different playground. Just because he wastes his free time on cleaning up mess around here does not mean he is not entitled to have opinion like everyone else.

2) I seemed to have read “bla bla bla Democrats bla bla bla Republicans bla bla bla”. Don’t make me see that again please. Whoever that was.

 

[MarcelNL]

But I have found that numbers/statistics can prove anything. It's just how you word the question to get the answers you are wanting.

The good part of Health Authority policies across the globe is that exactly this potential is pretty darn well made impossible after decades of (often self inflicted) mistrust of big pharma ;-)

 

[Barmoley]

there is a country wide shortage of employees for jobs that are exempt from minimum wage laws, and the ones at minimum wage arent doing that much better. especially with Amazon paying 15/hr in most of these markets. wouldnt it be at least as likely that that is the explanation for what you're seeing?

you say it's "due" to the mandates but out of curiosity how are you establishing it is the mandates causing the shortage and not too many alternative job options, expanded unemployment benefits (though there's a TON of evidence now those did not depress the supply of workers), etc?

btw as additional counter-evidence, I live in a state where the state legislature leans HARD the other direction and pre-empts nearly all local laws and we have the exact same problems. what my area and yours share in common is that there is now significant upward wage pressure and people simply do not have to agree to work for so little anymore.

I am surprised you would bring up unemployment benefits, that is something someone who you think I am would say

My sample is tiny and not scientific, but the reason I say it is due to mandates is because I talked to the Starbucks manager and he told me that a bunch of people quit as soon as mandate came out and they made vaccination a requirement for employment. They also can't find new vaccinated workers. They pay about $20-$22 an hour and still can't find workers. Gymnastics gyms are owned by friends and situation is the same they pay $18-$25 an hour and can't find people. We are not strictly talking about minimum wage which is $15 around here.

Again I don't claim that mandates are a single reason for country wide worker shortage, but it would be incorrect to claim that people are not leaving their jobs due to them. They do around here and I suspect in other places as well.

 

[user 16756]

I am surprised you would bring up unemployment benefits, that is something someone who you think I am would say

My sample is tiny and not scientific, but the reason I say it is due to mandates is because I talked to the Starbucks manager and he told me that a bunch of people quit as soon as mandate came out and they made vaccination a requirement for employment. They also can't find new vaccinated workers. They pay about $20-$22 an hour and still can't find workers. Gymnastics gyms are owned by friends and situation is the same they pay $18-$25 an hour and can't find people. We are not strictly talking about minimum wage which is $15 around here.

Again I don't claim that mandates are a single reason for country wide worker shortage, but it would be incorrect to claim that people are not leaving their jobs due to them. They do around her and I suspect in other places as well.

I brought up unemployment benefits because that is something people have been positing. Besides labor economists have had open questions about it since well before I went to school.

Also I want to be clear here Im more questioning how the direct causal link. Im not saying it's not, or that it is, contributing. I'm just pointing out that it's not so simple to directly link the two.

WRT the starbucks manager, well, that is an interesting anecdote but Ive not heard much empirical evidence going around about mandates either way, and Im still at least vaguely plugged into that conversation.

I just am skeptical, that's all. Note: skeptical here means skeptical, not that I have made up my mind. I would actually expect mandates to slightly depress employment rates, but to what effect, well my first guess would be minimal but that's not really the point.

 

[Barmoley]

I don’t have proof that would satisfy scientific rigor and all my examples are anecdotal, I thought I made that clear. I am not saying mandates are a sole reason for the situation we are in now. The labor market was depressed already and was made tougher by extra requirements. When people say they quit due to the vaccine requirement, you could choose to believe them or you could pontificate that the reason is false and the real reason is something else. Similar phenomena happened when people were getting $600 a week in addition to unemployment for 6 month last year. There were people who quit due to this because they were making more on the unemployment than working, yet there were people claiming this is not happening. Clearly neither are full explanations for the condition of the labor market as it is a very complex system, but at least on the local level it seems that these events contributed to the situation. The real question is how many people quit due to mandates and for how long. If the numbers are low enough then it doesn’t matter for the economy as a whole.

 

[user 16756]

I don’t have proof that would satisfy scientific rigor and all my examples are anecdotal, I thought I made that clear. I am not saying mandates are a sole reason for the situation we are in now. The labor market was depressed already and was made tougher by extra requirements. When people say they quit due to the vaccine requirement, you could choose to believe them or you could pontificate that the reason is false and the real reason is something else. Similar phenomena happened when people were getting $600 a week in addition to unemployment for 6 month last year. There were people who quit due to this because they were making more on the unemployment than working, yet there were people claiming this is not happening. Clearly neither are full explanations for the condition of the labor market as it is a very complex system, but at least on the local level it seems that these events contributed to the situation. The real question is how many people quit due to mandates and for how long. If the numbers are low enough then it doesn’t matter for the economy as a whole.

this is an excellent case of where anecdotes dont seem to agree with the evidence though. e.g. this research carried out by several of the best econ departments in the world:
https://files.michaelstepner.com/pandemicUIexpiration-paper.pdf
the current understanding is that unemployment insurance did not really impact anything except where people were working (which was in higher wage jobs). so when you posit it as a battle between what people say, and what the evidence is, well it's not really "pontification", it's just much more likely to be the truth that the people who were saying it was due to the insurance were simply incorrect.

wrt some people quitting due to mandates, I mean I do agree that there are going to be at least some. like you said is it enough to matter? I am, again, skeptical, but in the true sense of the word.

thank you for explaining where you're coming from though.

 

[M1k3]

Vaccine mandates aren't the cause of labor shortages in the food industry. Before any vaccine mandates were even being thought of the shortage was there. The mandate might affect some places and harder in other some areas versus others. It'll be an additional thing, probably minor in the overall picture, to cause the labor shortage.

Now backing out of this conversation while I have some hair left.

 

[Bodine]

Jeeze yall, this thing has to run through the population. From what I have read, survival rate is 98% plus. Among young folks 99.+%. What is the freakin big deal. This is not a life threatening illness, unless you have pre conditions.
Quit being scared and live your lives. I am 69.5 years old, makes me at risk I guess, but I refuse to live my life in fear. Lets face it head on, not like a bunch of pansies.

 

[KJDedge]

Look at the numbers now….how’s that Sweden doing vs Norway now?…maybe the Swedes got it right …
not to mention Finland and Denmark

 

[daveb]

Vaccine mandates aren't the cause of labor shortages in the food industry.

I'll concur that the mandates will have a minor effect on the food industry as a whole, but my personal concern is the food service component of the Healthcare industry.

Dining services has been and will continue to follow the lead of industry. Some have mandated that all new employees must be vaxed but existing can continue to test. Others (including mine) have mandated that all employees, admin, clinical and support be vaxed with no testing option. Of three facilities I currently work with just over half of the dining staff (and even more of the housekeeping staff) will be discharged next month.

These are corporate mandates being done in anticipation of legal ones. There is no immediate crisis. My labor difficulties are about to blow up because of politicians showing who has the biggest dick.