Covid: the shape of things to come

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the continued existence of the American restaurant experience
What do you mean by American Restaurant Experience?
@Keith Sinclair, the comment was about wage conditions - not a judgement on diversity or quality.

I guess the American hospitality system is well known for subsidising low-paid labour through quasi-mandatory tipping. There also is wage pressure downwards through the extensive use of illegal/undocumented immigrant labour.

As a consumer/diner, is preserving this part of the 'American restaurant experience' critical? I dont think so... A living minimum wage sounds more humane to me. You could then demote tipping to an optional, genuine expression of gratitude for exceptional quality and service.


An increasing part of the food experience in many parts of the world is the gig economy. I think the working conditions of the "independent contractors" are pretty dismal. We can do better. It might be even worse for gig economy workers in places like Australia where there is no culture of default tipping. I dont know how it is handled in America. I was staunchly against it before covid... and for the most part I still am. However there is a tiny bit of conflict in me as I recognise the gig economy allowed many restaurants to stay solvent during lockdown.
 

Jovidah

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@Jovidah

Understand what you are saying, and I cannot say I disagree with it...the problem is that although there are people out there walking around with things like a 'do not resuscitate/intubate' declaration but I've not heard anyone doing something similar around Covid. Who else is going to make that decision? Politicians? Medical staff?
Triage during a code black will not likely de-prioritize non vaxxers over others...
It'd have to be a political debate. From what I've seen the 'code black' triage rules are basically still the same as they were earlier in the epidemic, so the whole vaccine status doesn't enter the debate.
Changing them would probably be a touchy subject no one wants to burn their fingers on.

The problem is, by keeping those rules in place you're essentially killing and hurting at least some non-COVID / vaccinated patients because their health care gets postponed or deprioritized. It's just less visible, but this was already a thing in earlier waves and would no doubt be the result again when a lot of the 'lower priority care' gets postponed again.
 

KingShapton

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B.1.1.529 doesnt look good...
Based on the sparse information I've read, this variant could be the dreaded "super mutant". In that case, the situation gets really ****** serious.

But as long as there is so little information available, I still hope that these are harmless mutations.
 
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Delta spread easy caused our second round of restrictions. Masks are still worn indoors public
places except when eating or drinking.

My nephew commented how here was more strict with rules than mainland. They didn't mind just go with the flow.

Things are opening up football games, Macy's Thanksgiving parade. Hardly see any mask at games, but so far they haven't been super spreader events. If new strains like B.1.1. 529 are resistant to vaccines that could change.

Wearing mask, using disinfecting, washing hands are habits we as seniors agreed to continue. We used to get colds from the other because we are so close. Since covid nothing.

Here is more like the East where wearing mask is seen as normal. Probably because of our large Asian population.
 

icanhaschzbrgr

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I wish those crappy Covid species were named differently. Like "grim dоuchebag" instead of Delta. And the new one is Omicron. It needs a crappy name. Greek alphabet doesn't deserve to be associated with this shiiiit
 

MarcelNL

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I personally don't give a toss what name this bug gets..I just want them GONE!

We're going into the next sortofkindof lockdown by Sunday....
 

chefwp

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I have a sinking feeling that with the girls back in school omicron will be the variant that gets past our precautions. I hope the preliminary reports that symptoms are mild, with a shortened time, and not as deadly is true. I also hope the girls stay in school despite the spread of this new virus.

The good news is my youngest got her 'part II' of the vaccine last Friday, so she should be on her way to being the last one of us that is up-to-date as you can be with all that.

Stay fly people, and do what you gotta do <take yo vitamin D!>.

may the odds.jpg
 
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chefwp

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I also hope the girls stay in school despite the spread of this new virus.
I should also add regarding this: If the experts and school boards that stay on top of this siht decide that for the community's safety we need to return to cyber learning, I will be frustrated and disappointed to the nth degree; I will also accept their decision without going off the rails and blaming said people.
 

Michi

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Interesting animated graph that shows death rate based on vaccine status. Worth the 30 seconds it takes to watch.

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/raxc31
You need to click on the link in the caption to see the full graph. When playing it embedded, the bottom part gets truncated.
 
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I should also add regarding this: If the experts and school boards that stay on top of this siht decide that for the community's safety we need to return to cyber learning, I will be frustrated and disappointed to the nth degree; I will also accept their decision without going off the rails and blaming said people.
It is tough on parents and kids. Cyber learning didn't fair well here my niece was a teacher & cyber learning was very effective with her kids, but that's not the norm.
 

EricEricEric

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If the vaccines are working properly we should be seeing a lower number of deaths this year, but instead it’s been higher than the previous year when we had no vaccine and no therapies

I think the other issue is how many times and how often the vaccine is required in order to have any effectiveness. Some countries are on to number 4 to 5 now

I’ve been reading from the beginning that countries in Africa with zero to little vaccinations are out performing countries with the highest vaccination rates

We’re starting to see this same issue in the southeast of the United States with the least amount of use of mask isolation and vaccination, They are reporting less infections and less deaths

Another issue is that the vaccinations do not prevent the spread of Covid, even if you have the vaccination multiple times you can just as readily spread the virus
 

gregfisk

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riba

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If the vaccines are working properly we should be seeing a lower number of deaths this year, but instead it’s been higher than the previous year when we had no vaccine and no therapies
I am wondering who claimed 'If the vaccines are working properly we should be seeing a lower number of deaths this year'

I would rather phrase it along the lines (the lines are a bit blurry, enjoying a lovely wine) 'If the vaccines are working properly we should be seeing a lower ratio of deaths of people vaccinated compared to unvaccinated this year'

(And the hope is we can adjust vaccines when necessary)
 

ian

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If the vaccines are working properly we should be seeing a lower number of deaths this year, but instead it’s been higher than the previous year when we had no vaccine and no therapies
This year is different than last year. Different variants, different levels of spread. A direct comparison of death numbers makes no sense. Current death numbers of vaccinated people vs unvaccinated people makes more sense.

I think the other issue is how many times and how often the vaccine is required in order to have any effectiveness. Some countries are on to number 4 to 5 now
IIRC a couple places were using vaccines that started out with 3 doses? I don't know. I'm also not sure which countries you're referring to here with the 5 doses, and why it matters. Are you saying that it's inconvenient or expensive enough to get multiple doses that it's not worth the decrease in rates of severe illness?

I’ve been reading from the beginning that countries in Africa with zero to little vaccinations are out performing countries with the highest vaccination rates
I mean, lower vaccination rates are one of like 20 differences between Africa and the US. According to at least one thing I read, many African countries had a very aggressive and early lockdown response. The weather's also different, and people are generally younger in Africa than in the US. (Median age in US = 38, median age in Africa = 20.) The difference in death rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the US is a much more compelling statistic than any comparison between the US and Africa.
 
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Michi

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Some countries are on to number 4 to 5 now
Which countries? Please quote your sources.
I’ve been reading from the beginning that countries in Africa with zero to little vaccinations are out performing countries with the highest vaccination rates
Again, which countries, and what sources?
 
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Honestly at this point I think it's fair to start a process to de-prioritize COVID-affected patients who are willingly unvaccinated from medical care if capacity becomes a problem.
And what about smokers? Alcoholics? Motorbike riders? Skiers or downhill bikers? Athletes? Where do you want to start, and where do you stop? They all took their choice willingly…

Current vaccines are the best we currently have. Not more and not less. Only history will tell if whatever we do was the right or wrong choice. I am aware of all this (and others should be too). I am no expert and I have no solution.

I live in Austria/EU. Our politicians and experts will introduce vaccination mandate for everyone above 14 (I believe) by February 1st. I am asking, even if 100% of our own population is fully (whatever that means today) vaccinated, we still have non-Austrian residents, workers and tourists traveling through Austria and coming home from traveling. How much of the world’s population is currently unvaccinated? And we all know already that even a full vaccination doesn’t prevent you from getting or spreading the virus. I know 2 people already who got CoV after the 3rd shot… The rest of the world counts, too, I mean Austria is neither an island nor fully isolated with closed borders!
 
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Michi

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And what about smokers? Alcoholics? Motorbike riders? Skiers or downhill bikers? Athletes? Where do you want to start, and where do you stop? They all took their choice willingly…
True. But their numbers are a drop in the ocean compared to Covid cases that end up in hospitals. Motorbike riders don't overwhelm the public hospital system. Covid cases do.
 
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True. But their numbers are a drop in the ocean compared to Covid cases that end up in hospitals. Motorbike riders don't overwhelm the public hospital system. Covid cases do.
As I said, I live in Austria/EU. We are a nation of skiers. We are in lockdown number, uhm, I lost count. Our government decided that even in lockdown, it’s fine to go skiing as long as you’re vaccinated or have recovered from CoV. You really have to explain to me how you can keep ski lifts open when you close a whole country down because of CoV. If you believe that’s only a few I recommend to google numbers of daily hospital admissions due to skiing accidents (I did and I tell you, you‘d be surprised). The stupidity of mankind is unrivaled and unprecedented. And many of us believe we‘re God‘s (or whoever) greatest Creation.

I did not and do not want to attack motorbike riders (or any other group of people I have or have not mentioned), but in times when every single (!) bed in intensive care matters, every single person who willingly puts at risk his own life and/or the lives of others is equal - equally good or bad.
 

inferno

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the way i see it. everybody will get corona sooner or later. vaxxed or not. i said it 2 years ago.
and i'm saying it again.

herd immunity will probably never come.

viruses mutate, thats how they evolve. and a few major mutations down the line the vaccines will not work at all.

@inferno I respect your opinion, but your post if full of false information. You say this is not a normal virus, this is false. There are known viruses that are more transmissible or more deadly than covid, so it’s characteristics are not something unique on their own.

There is a solid scientific reason for why the mRNA vaccines are effective against variants. These vaccines target the pre-fusion conformation of the spike protein, which targets the ACE2 receptor on the human cells. As long as the ACE2 recepor does not mutate in humans (and it does not), the chances of the virus evading the vaccine are quite small (if virus mutates in a way that doee not recognize the antibody, it wont recognize ACE2 receptor either and will become effectively harmless).

-snip-

You say that in the long run it is not doing to do anything. Neither you nor I have a crystal ball,


so you say... how do you feel about that statement now? now when we have the omicron variant which i saw in my magical crystal ball.

to be honest i never had a crystal ball. i just read MEDICINE when i was 15-16 years old! and this is about the most basic ****ing **** there is those books!!! how this works has been knows for about 100 years now. just so you know!

i guess that could be interpreted as some crystal ball mojo for r3tarded people but i dont know to be honest. if thats fair.

so lets sum it up: 120 people in an oslo restaurant gets infceted. ALL of them are double vaxxed. AND tested before they go to the "julebord" christmas dinner.

here is the article but it has been updated to 120 now. translate with google translate.
text of interest:
– Det er noe vi har sett generelt i det siste. At veldig mange fullvaksinerte blir smittet, og smitter videre, sier medisinskfaglig ansvarlig for smittesporingsteamet i Oslo vest, Jorun Thaulow.

it says: this is something that we have seen in general lately. that very many people, fully vaccinated, get infected, and spread the disease to others, says the olso vest medical head honcho. Jorun Thaulow.

(i used to live in norway so i know the lingo quite well)

-------------------------------

in denmark we have 1840 infected with omicron. (its in english too!!)

and 74% is double vaxxed. 14% unvaxxed. and 9.5% triple vaxxed and 2.2% 1vaxxed.
and this is kinda funny. because there is about 20% unvaxxed in denmark. so now the vaxxed are getting infected MORE than unvaxxed!

GEE, WHO WOULD HAVE ****ING GUESSED IT COULD TURN OUT LIKE THIS??

hate to be the one to say "i fukn told you so", but i guess i did actually tell you so. and not a single fukn crystal ball was used in the process.
common sense people... common sense. and as we all know its not that common anymore.

la la laaa,
la la la la laaa

 

ian

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As I said, I live in Austria/EU. We are a nation of skiers. We are in lockdown number, uhm, I lost count. Our government decided that even in lockdown, it’s fine to go skiing as long as you’re vaccinated or have recovered from CoV. You really have to explain to me how you can keep ski lifts open when you close a whole country down because of CoV. If you believe that’s only a few I recommend to google numbers of daily hospital admissions due to skiing accidents (I did and I tell you, you‘d be surprised). The stupidity of mankind is unrivaled and unprecedented. And many of us believe we‘re God‘s (or whoever) greatest Creation.

I did not and do not want to attack motorbike riders (or any other group of people I have or have not mentioned), but in times when every single (!) bed in intensive care matters, every single person who willingly puts at risk his own life and/or the lives of others is equal - equally good or bad.
This argument seems a little off. It’s not about the number of alcoholics or motorbike riders vs the number of unvaccinated people. It’s that by getting people vaccinated, you can make the world safer for everyone. Part of this is making it less likely for individual people to end up in hospitals because they’re now vaccinated, therefore helping them and freeing up hospital beds, but it’s also about just slowing the spread of the disease. And getting a shot is a really small ask in comparison to “You must now give up drinking” or “You must sell your motorbike”. It’s about the combination of huge societal benefit + small ask.

The question of why ski resorts are still open is separate from this.
 

tcmx3

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@inferno before you celebrate you will need to demonstrate that outcomes for vaccinated people are, as a group, the same severity as those for unvaccinated people.

also your interpretation of vaccinated vs unvaccinated rates in Denmark is highly spurious. you are doing simple proportions but in order for that to work even in a frequentist sense again you need to demonstrate a few assumptions hold, the biggest of which is that there isnt significant self-selection bias in who is getting vaccinated and that the subsequent patterns of behavior are identical and I gotta tell you I dont think you're gonna be able to demonstrate that.

if you want to interpret things that way on a forum I cant stop you but if you tried to pass that off on any team of statisticians you'd be laughed out of the room.
 
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