Covid: the shape of things to come

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And, while we are on factoids:

The Delta variant is about as transmissible as chicken pox. Doesn't sound serious? Well, here you go…

The Delta variant is more transmissible than:
  • MERS
  • SARS
  • Ebola
  • Common cold
  • Seasonal flu
  • Spanish flu
  • Smallpox
Masks? Why would anyone bother if it's more transmissible than ebola and smallpox… :facepalm:
 
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Michi said:
And, while we are on factoids:

The Delta variant is about as transmissible as chicken pox. Doesn't sound serious? Well, here you go…

The Delta variant is more transmissible than:
  • MERS
  • SARS
  • Ebola
  • Common cold
  • Seasonal flu
  • Spanish flu
  • Smallpox
Masks? Why would anyone bother if it's more transmissible than ebola and small pox… :facepalm:
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On the up side, delta is somewhat less transmissible than measles.

OTOH, measles is so contagious that you are likely to catch it if you walk into the same room as an infected person several hours after they left. Unless you are vaccinated.

Who knows how transmissible the Tau variant will be? Let alone Omega...

In retrospect, the Greek alphabet may not have been the best nomenclature system for more and more dangerous variants of an already very dangerous disease.
 
Nemo said:
On the up side, delta is somewhat less transmissible than measles.
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Oh, wow, what a relief! ;)

OTOH, measles is so contagious that you are likely to catch it if you walk into the same room as an infected person several hours after they left. Unless you are vaccinated.
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Yes. Measles is truly evil. Thanks to Mr Wakefield, its incidence is on the rise again. But, hey, brain damage or death from measles is fairly rare, so that's OK, right? After all, we need to stand up for our right to make death-style choices on behalf of our children, no?

Who knows how transmissible the Tau variant will be? Let alone Omega...

In retrospect, the Greek alphabet may not have been the best nomenclature system for more and more dangerous variants of an already very dangerous disease.
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I so wish that you were wrong. I'm seriously afraid that you are right :(

There is every chance that, with our selfish and half-arsed approach to vaccination, we are creating the perfect breeding ground for new mutations. My personal expectation is that Covid will dominate all human activity for at least the next two decades. I sincerely hope that I am wrong :(
 
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Nemo said:
On the up side, delta is somewhat less transmissible than measles.

OTOH, measles is so contagious that you are likely to catch it if you walk into the same room as an infected person several hours after they left. Unless you are vaccinated.

Who knows how transmissible the Tau variant will be? Let alone Omega...

In retrospect, the Greek alphabet may not have been the best nomenclature system for more and more dangerous variants of an already very dangerous disease.
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think of all the fights over whether it's the O-meg-uh variant or the O-mee-guh variant!
 
Michi said:
That is a pre-print not certified by peer review. Excellent cherry picking though, congratulations!


Comparing the events in Germany with what goes on in Belarus is preposterous in the extreme. The two are not even vaguely comparable situations.
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Are you living in GER or am I ? Are you seeing how your fellow citizens got thrashed by police thugs and your constitutional rights got trampled on ?
 
tcmx3 said:
think of all the fights over whether it's the O-meg-uh variant or the O-mee-guh variant!
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Right. Come judgement day, you wouldn’t want to be heard dead mispronouncing that, would you now?
 
knifeknight said:
Are you living in GER or am I ? Are you seeing how your fellow citizens got thrashed by police thugs and your constitutional rights got trampled on ?
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I am German, I grew up in Germany, and I have spent several weeks there each year for most of the past forty years. I do believe that I have a pretty good handle on what’s going on there.

While you are at it, you might take a look at the Wikipedia entry for ad hominem.
 
Michi said:
I do find it impressive that people are willing to risk their life and the lives of their household members in order to make their anti-vaccination point. At least they are not beating about the bush…
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Remember, "every accusation is a confession." When they talk about 'not living in fear' I believe they're revealing how truly terrified they are of the vaccine. They have a mindset that doesn't allow them to admit they're afraid of anything, probably even to themselves. I don't think they're making a point so much as protecting their ego with twisted logic.
 
A virus that is more easily passed on does not need to be more dangerous, Ebola is so deadly that outbreaks kill plenty folks but are a sort of self limiting event because the virus is not able to survive for long without a host.

A comparison between transmission rate of viruses without taking the severity of disease into account is invalid IMO.

Hardly anyone cares about the common cold, it's a nuisance but still contagious, the 'seasonal flu' (nice euphemism that means we try to predict which variant is going round) has higher severity (some folks are at risk of dying from it, hence the yearly vaccination schemes in most countries) and also contagious...Ebola is something different, its contagious and deadly, but it is so deadly that it usually does not spread widely.

What I read so far is that the expectation is that there will be more contagious variants, yet that the expectation also is that the newer variants have lower severity of disease. I hope those scientist are proven right.
 
So now for something completely different.

How many variants do we have to go through before we work around back to the Hunan variant?
 
Do we have a resident evolution theorist and Virologist at KKF? Given that there are hardly any signs of evolution going in circles or even backwards it might be improbable, but I admit the question is interesting!
 
MarcelNL said:
A virus that is more easily passed on does not need to be more dangerous, Ebola is so deadly that outbreaks kill plenty folks but are a sort of self limiting event because the virus is not able to survive for long without a host.

A comparison between transmission rate of viruses without taking the severity of disease into account is invalid IMO.

Hardly anyone cares about the common cold, it's a nuisance but still contagious, the 'seasonal flu' (nice euphemism that means we try to predict which variant is going round) has higher severity (some folks are at risk of dying from it, hence the yearly vaccination schemes in most countries) and also contagious...Ebola is something different, its contagious and deadly, but it is so deadly that it usually does not spread widely.

What I read so far is that the expectation is that there will be more contagious variants, yet that the expectation also is that the newer variants have lower severity of disease. I hope those scientist are proven right.
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This certainly occurred with pandemic influenza, over a period of 2-3 years. Covid has a much slower rate of mutation than influenza and has so far shown no signs of becoming less virulent (more benign).

I do hope that future variants are less virulent, but I don't think we should count on it.

On the upside, vaccines have been more successful more quickly than we could have reasonably hoped for. There is good reason to hope that boosters for the variants will be available in a similarly short time frame and there is a good chance that advances in therapeutics will make Covid a partially or even fully treatable condition.

On the downside, however, our modern communication technologies and platforms make it very easy to spread misinformation around Covid and vaccines (and indeed many other things).
 
Nemo said:
there is a good chance that advances in therapeutics will make Covid a partially or even fully treatable condition.
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I am sure we will find a way to reduce mortality if intervention occurs at the right time. The thing that scares me is long covid. That can apparently occur after mild cases. In the long run... perhaps advances will also provide people with long covid some treatment options. I suppose the "opportunity" there, is the medical community may find answers that provide people with chronic fatigue some long needed relief.

Given the complex way the pathogen wrecks the joint, I am pretty sure there will be no silver bullet. At the moment it sounds like each case has to be considered independently. In time, hopefully the medical community will find underlying patterns.
 
Luftmensch said:
I am sure we will find a way to reduce mortality if intervention occurs at the right time. The thing that scares me is long covid. That can apparently occur after mild cases. In the long run... perhaps advances will also provide people with long covid some treatment options. I suppose the "opportunity" there, is the medical community may find answers that provide people with chronic fatigue some long needed relief.

Given the complex way the pathogen wrecks the joint, I am pretty sure there will be no silver bullet. At the moment it sounds like each case has to be considered independently. In time, hopefully the medical community will find underlying patterns.
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I also see long Covid as potentially a big problem, both in personal and macroeconomic terms. Hopefully vaccination helps prevent it.

It's worth pointing out that it may be the immune system that does as much damage as Covid does.

I think we will learn a lot about the function of the immune system over the next few years.
 
juice said:
Just had my second AZ shot, so both of us here have had both shots (AZ and Pfizer).
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Just to disambiguate... each of you have had both AZ and Pzifer? Or between the two of you, one has had AZ and one has had Pfizer???
 
Got my second shot (AZ) three days ago. At least I'm highly unlikely to die now if I get the infection. Not sure what it means for long Covid though. Anyone happen to have any data?

Regardless, not getting infected (despite the vaccine) is probably an excellent idea, so I'll continue to exercise caution.
 
I recall reading a couple of weeks ago that there were signs that vaccination helped to ease some long Covid effects, but I have not heard any updates in that regard. I think there is not enough data yet for any serious statements. The problem with long Covid is, that the range of health issues it brings is super wide and doctors just have no idea how to treat it. So yes, for me personally (unlikely to die, plus I got both shots already too) the long Covid is what I consider the main risk to me and my family (we can inoculate the kids yet as they are too yong). Long Covid, sadly is also showing up with kids who had super mild symptoms.
 
M1k3 said:
One got AZ (Juice) and the other Pfizer (occasional knife user spouse).
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That was my guess... but you never know! The distribution here is so ramshackle!

On that point.... I am worried about waiting for Pfizer and am seriously considering getting in the queue for AZ just so I have some level of immunity. I figure those (in Australia) who have had AZ will get a chance to have Pfizer when the inevitable booster shots are released in a year or two...
 
Luftmensch said:
On that point.... I am worried about waiting for Pfizer and am seriously considering getting in the queue for AZ just so I have some level of immunity.
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Just go and do it. Your chance of dying from Covid is many, many times greater than getting any serious complications from the vaccine. We accept a risk of dying far greater than the risk of dying from the vaccine every time we climb into a car…

Edit: Reported by ABC News today: "About 6.8 million doses of AstraZeneca have now been administered across the country, with seven deaths linked to the vaccine."
 
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Matus said:
I recall reading a couple of weeks ago that there were signs that vaccination helped to ease some long Covid effects, but I have not heard any updates in that regard. I think there is not enough data yet for any serious statements.
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Out of experience, I can say that a vaccination can also worsen the effects again (as in 'back to square 1'). And I am not the only one according the pulmonologist.
(Not implying at all that one shouldn't vaccinate)
 
riba said:
Out of experience, I can say that a vaccination can also worsen the effects again (as in 'back to square 1'). And I am not the only one according the pulmonologist.
(Not implying at all that one shouldn't vaccinate)
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That is not particularly encouraging. How long after Covid did you receive the shot? Here in Germany it is recommended to wait for 6 months and those who had Covid only get 1 shot and not 2. I have of course no idea whether this plays any role.
 
Matus said:
That is not particularly encouraging. How long after Covid did you receive the shot? Here in Germany it is recommended to wait for 6 months and those who had Covid only get 1 shot and not 2. I have of course no idea whether this plays any role.
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3.5 months. The advice (in NL) used to be to get 1 shot within 6 months after COVID-19, otherwise 2. (Though that changed now to 1 shot).
There is very little data wrt long covid. In my case also no data is being collected. I did report my experience to the national pharmacovigilance center.
 
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Much of Australia is still under lock-down. Hard lock-down. No visitors allowed, not allowed to leave the home other than to buy essentials or medical supplies, and then only within 5 or 10 km. The idea is that, if everyone stays put and doesn't meet other people, those people who are infected won't infect others.

Here is how we get the message across in Australia. Warning: this video contains normal Australian language which, in most other countries, would possibly qualify as strong language :)

 
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