Covid: the shape of things to come

[big_adventure]

Where's this data coming from, btw? I was trying to figure out how many people are getting prescriptions vs getting the veterinary version, and found stuff like this, where there are like 88,000 prescriptions per week vs 3,600/week prepandemic. Those 7 doctors must be getting hand cramps! Guess there are a fair number of people trying to get the veterinary version, too, but I don't think we can say that the amount of people using the human version is insignificant.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/30/health/covid-ivermectin-prescriptions.html

Yeah, my "7" was an exaggeration. Doctors aren't gods, they aren't omniscient, and they can fold under pressure like most people. There are doctors, we've seen speaking on television, who recommended hydrochloroquine. Same for this. And if the patient comes in and demands the stuff, well, given that it doesn't do any harm to humans in normal doses, some of them are likely to give them rather then get into a fight or risk losing a patient.

Before California made it straight up legal, certain doctors would write you a scrip for weed if you stubbed your toe, or felt a little stressed in the afternoon, or misplaced a new John Grisham novel while on vacation. Doctors write stupid scrips when there isn't a downside.

Buuuuuuuut... many wouldn't. And then you had idiots writing their own scrips effectively, only using the equine version available in feed stores.

 

[LostHighway]

Since KKF often tilts toward the scatalogical, the view from Connecticut wastewater treatment.

 

[Barmoley]

These lawsuits are occurring. Here's an article that sums up some of them: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ivermectin-lawsuits-covid-us-1.6214131

Few statements are ever outright wrong, but saying "there is no way any lawyer would take this case" is close. Not poking at you, just my chosen profession...

Don't seem to be exactly the same cases as discussed, since it is not the case of someone being ordered to write a prescription, but you are of course correct that absolutes should not be used. In the US finding a lawyer to sue for almost anything is often possible. Good to hear that both women for which giving the drug was court ordered recovered even though one was 80 and on ventilator. At least in these cases it seems that no harm was done. Also good to hear that, at least as far as the article discusses, the lawsuits were to allow the patients to be able to take the drug and not against specific doctors whom refused to write prescriptions.

I am wondering what will happen soon in the US once Pfizer vaccine is approved for 5-11 year old kids. It is anecdotal, but I know many people with younger kids whom are pro vaccine for adults, but against it for younger kids. I think we'll see even more lawsuits of all kinds. We have friends that run athletics for kids and parents on both sides have been a nightmare. Some want everyone to be vaccinated and take their kids out of the program even though kids are not yet eligible, others quit the program because they feel they are being forced to vaccinate. An extremely tough to navigate environment.

 

[MarcelNL]

let's leave the Ivermectin weirdness (my opinion, everyone is entitled to theirs) aside, the issue is IMO larger than what happens on its fringes. The situation in the US with two camps and low vacination rates is not unique, although the polarization appears to be far more political (and politicized) in origin than anywhere else I know of.

Vaccination rates are still too low in many countries while COVID is out and about and not going anywhere anytime soon (my prediction, do not take it to the bank). I'm not sure what the ICU situation in other countries is but over here the -long pending IMO- discussion about prioritization is starting. ICU/nursing staff have not been recognized/rewarded in a meaningful way (a round of applause and a meagre -one off- bonus) after the initial Covid triathlon (I'm guessing they have not yet been able to compensate overtime with time off). They are now being asked to run another marathon as ICU bed capacity needs to be increased to a level far beyond normal capacity again. As plenty ICU staff have left max ICU capacity is likely lower than ever before and there are plenty of folks waiting for long postponed and now seriously backlogged surgical procedures requiring ICU beds postop.

Does a society care/dare to prioritize one patient over the other? The mere hint of discussing the possibility to prioritize others over non vaxxers has kicked off a shitstream of huffing and puffing non vaxxers, while reality shows that the vast majority of hospitalized Covid patients are not vaccinated.

Personally I'd be in favor of a solution prioritizing ICU beds based on medical history, expected outcome and capacity...pretty much what we did anyway as ICU capacity has always been limiting surgical capacity(to the point where cases are often cancelled on the day of surgery). So in clear language, someones CABG surgery or someones 3rd hip replacement may need to wait longer than usual as (long term care) Covid cases once again flood the ICU...where do the non vaccinated fit in? Their numbers will easily flood what capacity there is beyond critical care, trauma and those together with the few vaccinated Covid cases are enough to make major elective surgery a thing from the past once more.

 

[gregfisk]

What I find interesting about this conversation is that some people here seem to believe that I’m trying to change people’s minds. I don’t care whether people go to the feed store and buy horse dewormer. And I don’t care if they talk their Dr. into prescribing it in its human form. Either way they’re not people I would want to hang out with and that’s being kind. My point is that these people are the same people who aren’t getting vaccinated, getting sick and plugging up our health system. And that is putting a lot of stress on people I care about and the medical industry in general. They’re also the same people who are spreading the virus and allowing it to mutate which is making this planet a lot more dangerous for the rest of us.

 

[gregfisk]

MarcelNL, I was writing when you posted this and I just want to say that I completely agree. Well said!

 

[spaceconvoy]

Too bad for her. Even more so if she's well educated and still can't filter information.

I have zero trust in our mass media....
Yet there are scientific publications in curated medical journals.

If you're referring to the article in the Lancet authored by over a dozen Russian scientists, then you're missing the point. All of those authors live in Russia, are susceptible to Novichok, and allergic to falling out of high rises. In a quasi-totalitarian state ruled by a murderous cabal of oligarchs who will stop at nothing to retain power, it's not just your media that's suspect, but everyone under their thumb.

To be clear, I'm not endorsing this view, just trying to explain my mother-in-law's perspective from earlier in the summer when my wife was trying to convince her to get vaccinated. She may have changed her mind since scientists in other countries have started publishing their own results on Sputnik. I could ask, but that carries a high risk of launching my wife into an hour long complaint session that I'd rather not invite

 

[MarcelNL]

my faith in Russian science and scientist is in fact a bit higher, the fact we have no been keeping up with what they do does not mean they do not know what they are doing. I've worked with some Russian investigators in the past and must confess the level of knowledge of the folks in their study teams was impressive and (far) beyond what I usually come across.

 

[spaceconvoy]

my faith in Russian science and scientist is in fact a bit higher, the fact we have no been keeping up with what they do does not mean they do not know what they are doing. I've worked with some Russian investigators in the past and must confess the level of knowledge of the folks in their study teams was impressive and (far) beyond what I usually come across.

I agree with you, and that's been my experience as well. My former company acquired a Moscow-based startup that made us all feel inadequate. But a funny thing I've noticed over the years is the correlation between education and faith in Russian expertise that's inverted in Russians and Westerners. Here's a crude graph of my anecdotal findings (not peer-reviewed):

 

[sansho]

Can we stop “horse dewormer” nonsense. Ivermectin is approved by FDA for human use. I am not suggesting it should be used to treat COVID, but calling it horse dewormer makes it very hard to take seriously anything else people spilling this nonsense say.

i pretty much agree.

i prefer "ivermectin" or perhaps "dewormer" if a subtle, possibly-perjorative spin is desired. "horse dewormer" is dumb.

 

[WildBoar]

My sister's mom and brother's are a few hours outside of Moscow. Her mom was vaccinated a while back (she's in her mid-70s). Her educated 40 year old brother and his environmental engineer wife did not trust Sputnik. They got Covid last month, and their 2 kids also got it. The sister-in-law was in the hospital for over a week, while the brother scrambled to take care of himself and the kids (something he never did before even when healthy). They got lucky it did not hit them worse, although if there is long-term damage to kids it may be years before the effects are fully known.

I read something interesting the other day that indicate Russia actually has more Covid-related deaths than the US, but they are only reporting 250,000 or so. But may medical people over there know the real numbers are much higher.

 

[WildBoar]

i prefer "ivermectin" or perhaps "dewormer" if a subtle, possibly-perjorative spin is desired. "horse dewormer" is dumb.

How about 'Dean Wormer'? It adds some humor to the situation... What's the best outfit for getting vaccinated? Toga! Toga! Toga!

 

[MarcelNL]

reporting bias around Covid deaths is something I'd totally expect and accept in Russia....

 

[daveb]

They're certainly not alone...

 

[ian]

What I find interesting about this conversation is that some people here seem to believe that I’m trying to change people’s minds. I don’t care whether people go to the feed store and buy horse dewormer. And I don’t care if they talk their Dr. into prescribing it in its human form. Either way they’re not people I would want to hang out with and that’s being kind. My point is that these people are the same people who aren’t getting vaccinated, getting sick and plugging up our health system. And that is putting a lot of stress on people I care about and the medical industry in general. They’re also the same people who are spreading the virus and allowing it to mutate which is making this planet a lot more dangerous for the rest of us.

Noone thinks you're trying to change minds. Barmoley was just suggesting a more accurate way to talk about it that's not needlessly inflammatory. But if your point is to make fun of people that are mucking everything up for the rest of us, then it's an apt phrase. Anyway, whatever, this discussion isn't really important enough to merit the amount of airtime it's gotten here, although I realize I'm complicit.

Did anyone else have to google Dean Wormer? Or was it just me?

Speaking of which, was Animal House in black and white? I have a hard time telling all those old movies from the last century apart.

 

[user 16756]

Yeah, my "7" was an exaggeration. Doctors aren't gods, they aren't omniscient, and they can fold under pressure like most people. There are doctors, we've seen speaking on television, who recommended hydrochloroquine. Same for this. And if the patient comes in and demands the stuff, well, given that it doesn't do any harm to humans in normal doses, some of them are likely to give them rather then get into a fight or risk losing a patient.

Before California made it straight up legal, certain doctors would write you a scrip for weed if you stubbed your toe, or felt a little stressed in the afternoon, or misplaced a new John Grisham novel while on vacation. Doctors write stupid scrips when there isn't a downside.

Buuuuuuuut... many wouldn't. And then you had idiots writing their own scrips effectively, only using the equine version available in feed stores.

one of the doctors was from Ocala Florida. let me say as a person who visits Ocala once a year or so for family that the place has a LOT of rx opioid problems.

while most doctors are trying their best, there's always a few who will write as many scripts as they can find blank pieces of paper, and most of the harm comes from a pretty small number.

 

[M1k3]

Noone thinks you're trying to change minds. Barmoley was just suggesting a more accurate way to talk about it that's not needlessly inflammatory. But if your point is to make fun of people that are mucking everything up for the rest of us, then it's an apt phrase. Anyway, whatever, this discussion isn't really important enough to merit the amount of airtime it's gotten here, although I realize I'm complicit.

Did anyone else have to google Dean Wormer? Or was it just me?

Speaking of which, was Animal House in black and white? I have a hard time telling all those old movies from the last century apart.

 

[ian]

View attachment 148164

Huh, I wonder if they colorized it after the fact.

 

[user 16756]

Huh, I wonder if they colorized it after the fact.

damn that Ted Turner!

 

[M1k3]

Huh, I wonder if they colorized it after the fact.

 

[Michi]

Did anyone else have to google Dean Wormer? Or was it just me?

I had to Google it, too. Doesn’t sound like I missed much

 

[gregfisk]

Noone thinks you're trying to change minds. Barmoley was just suggesting a more accurate way to talk about it that's not needlessly inflammatory. But if your point is to make fun of people that are mucking everything up for the rest of us, then it's an apt phrase. Anyway, whatever, this discussion isn't really important enough to merit the amount of airtime it's gotten here, although I realize I'm complicit.

Did anyone else have to google Dean Wormer? Or was it just me?

Speaking of which, was Animal House in black and white? I have a hard time telling all those old movies from the last century apart.

Actually, it was brought up more than once that that’s what I was trying to do. And I was going about it wrong by calling out people for eating horse dewormer. I agree with you though. Way too much was made out of my comment. Especially since it had nothing to do with my point in the first place. It all seems a bit ridiculous to be honest but I do thank everyone who tried to help make my point. I would be happy if we all just moved along.

You must be young Ian. Animal House isn’t that old. Wizard of Oz was even in color, although I didn’t know that when I was a kid because we didn’t have a color TV.

 

[ian]

Actually, it was brought up more than once that that’s what I was trying to do. And I was going about it wrong by calling out people for eating horse dewormer. I agree with you though. Way too much was made out of my comment. Especially since it had nothing to do with my point in the first place. It all seems a bit ridiculous to be honest but I do thank everyone who tried to help make my point. I would be happy if we all just moved along.

You must be young Ian. Animal House isn’t that old. Wizard of Oz was even in color, although I didn’t know that when I was a kid because we didn’t have a color TV.

Sorry about that, the Animal House thing was just a dumb joke. I’m not that young, unfortunately, although still (just barely) under 40. Feeling older every day, with every additional tendon injury.

 

[BillHanna]

although still (just barely) under 40.

Sweet summer child.

 

[Nemo]

View attachment 148164

Yeah, I was pretty sure it was in colour.

 

[ReiHamono]

That’s the thing about closed mindedness though isn’t it? Give it time, it’s on everyone’s side

A lot of physicians are saving a lot of lives, and that’s the only thing that matters, not political talking points

i pretty much agree.

i prefer "ivermectin" or perhaps "dewormer" if a subtle, possibly-perjorative spin is desired. "horse dewormer" is dumb.

 

[juice]

A lot of physicians are saving a lot of lives, and that’s the only thing that matters, not political talking points

What, like the stupid image you then went on to post? "4000 acute COVID-19 patients: 5 hospitalised" These people need to learn that when you lie, little lies are way more believable than idiotic ones like that.

 

[Luftmensch]

'Dean Wormer'?

Sign me up to the group that had to look him up. Continuing on the theme of: word, repeat, word...

My post right now.... has:

From the horse's mouth...

 

[Pisau]

“Now is not the time you want to fall over or get injured, because the hospitals are full. Don’t get too excited about the horse winning the Melbourne Cup if you’re on the brink of having a cardiac issue. Because if you call an ambulance in coming weeks, you may have to wait. There’s no question the hospital will do what they can, but we’re not able to provide the standard of care that we once did because of all of the resource constraints.”

Victoria AMA says Covid-deniers and anti-vaxxers should opt out of public health system and ‘let nature run its course'

Helpful language? Yes of course. But whispering don't always work on a stubborn horse, stronger languages like the above are warranted.

P.S: I live among dairy and cattle producers, our term for that particular medicine is 'cattle dewormer'

/back to lurking/

 

[Michi]

A lot of physicians are saving a lot of lives, and that’s the only thing that matters, not political talking points

This is a classic example of anecdotal evidence. There is nothing to show what would have happened to those 4000 people otherwise. There is nothing to show that the drug didn't do any harm (other than that none of them died). For all we know, some of those people might have had worse symptoms than they would have had without the drug.

I'm afraid that this is not how science works. Without proper double-blinded clinical trials, it is just that: anecdotal evidence. And the plural of "anecdote" is "anecdotes", not "fact" or "truth".