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chinacats

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My state went from 3 cases yesterday to 12 today...10 of which are in my county...again, we've been testing for less than a week here...
 

WildBoar

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A lot has happened today in many states and local governments. Besides some states ordering all bars and dine-in restaurant service to be closed, local governments have been issuing extensive guidelines to their citizens. I don't watch/ listen to speeches by Presidents, and haven't since I was a little boy, so I couldn't give two ***** what any national 'leader' has to say. If everyone knows what Trump says is BS, then why even bother watching/ listening? The President (or a prime minister, etc.) is not the sort of person I would remotely want to listen to at a time like this. Why would one not go straight to the disease-response groups that provide the real info to the government officials? That is like me going to a circus clown to ask for a review of a restaurant his wife ate at, versus reading reviews by some of the real reviewers and other restaurant people.
 

bkultra

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Hit close to home, extended family of two children at my son's school have tested positive. He was also the driver for a carpool for kids in the gifted program. So far no signs in in either child, but no tests done yet that I'm aware of.
 

HRC_64

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Please don't suffer from a 'lack of imagination'...
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Therapeutic_privilege
A therapeutic privilege refers to an uncommon situation whereby a physician may be excused from revealing information to a patient when disclosing it would pose a serious psychological threat, so serious a threat as to be medically contraindicated...

We are now about to confront a serious math problem.
 

Luftmensch

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Popular? In the US it is an art form right now. Nothing better than a large amount of people who want the gov't to tell them what to do versus using common sense. Do I need to be told not to put myself in the middle of a crowd of 50 people right now? No, I do not need to wait until the gov't tells me it would not be prudent. Do I need to have the gov't tell me to wash my hands? Well thank Dog they did, as otherwise I probably would not, and that would be bad since we ran out of toilet paper and need to use our left hands (or is that right hands? I'll try to remember after I put down this cheeseburger I am currently holding up to my mouth)
Frankly I do not know why anyone would listen to a president, prime minister, king, etc. for something like this.
You are not wrong... but you are not right either. Of course... act in your own interests. You seem like a smart chap. You are probably assimilating knowledge from the right sources. The reason why anyone would listen to messaging from their Government is because in many ways, that is the only message that matters.

In a world where it has never been easier to get access to high reliability information, the amount of ignorance/naivety in the world is staggering. Don't get me wrong - i am not calling people stupid. There is a ****-storm of conspiracies, half-truths and anecdotes. This complicates best practice. We don't afford many poor in our economies to take the time to pursue knowledge and implement best practice. They have enough stress and worry on their plate. Also... narcissism. People have probably never been so self involved (social media). This goes directly to your point. You need coordinated behaviour in the herd. Only governments can do it. There are enough people in society willing to do the wrong thing. Goverments are the only agencies that have the power to enact policy that can force us to behave in a useful way (reduce the R0...).


I'm on some other forums that are international as well, and almost universally everyone bitches about their government's responses and directives. And that includes Australia and England.
In many Governments (mine and yours), we are paying these oafs extraordinary sums to 'act on our behalf'. Politics has never been so hollow, unimaginative and corrupt in my short life time. I am old enough to have seen a parliament that conducted itself with respect and decorum. Sure there was partisanship and corruption. Now it is just bald faced and proud. We dont pay taxes just so these people can line their pockets. If they can't pull it together in a crisis - we deserve to be angry.

Speaking purely domestically (Australia)....

As I have said; I am not fan of my Government (this is an understatement). They did get the early travel bans right - with our largest trading partner no less... Kudos. The rest has neither been terrible nor exemplary. I think this is a fairly neutral appraisal.

I would like to see further travel bans and expect to see shutdown soon. My gut feel is they should have banned entertainment earlier. But what do I know?... I am just some guy!! The rest is really, really hard. I am happy to admit this and extend the Government that room to manoeuvre. History will eventually tell the story. For now I will take it on faith (dangerous) that the Government is trying to balance economic disruption with health policy. I don't think public service is that broken here; as partisan as it is. Minimising both economic damage and health impacts is an extremely difficult game to play. Pulling the plug on the economy is no joke. I couldn't care less about the economy as some abstract concept - but it does affect people's livelihoods and well being. Recessions cause long lasting harm. I do believe the chances of a recession here (and globally) is getting hot. If the Government need an extra week to observe the numbers before pushing us into that territory (we are already there), i'll extend them that benefit of the doubt.
 
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Luftmensch

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Almost everyone getting infected at some point is inevitable now. But we can act to slow that down as much as possible and give everyone a better chance.
Don't be too worried about this. It IS serious... but lets be sober. Has anyone got a reliable source on models predicting infection rates?

I read one local academic conservatively estimate one-in-five (for Australia) but I'd like to see better modelled estimates. The Spanish Flu was 27% of the global population. Point being, as horrible as this thing is, I doubt we'll come close to reaching 50% of the population infected. I dont mean to understate the disease/risk - but looking at bare numbers, the chances that an individual will catch it are several times less lower than remaining healthy. Follow public health messaging and put yourself in that healthy majority!!
 

Johnny.B.Good

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Why would one not go straight to the disease-response groups that provide the real info to the government officials?
You’re giving the average American citizen far too much credit. 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human caused climate change is happening and yet people that lack a grade school understanding of science insist they know better. Not sure why you think Americans will ignore Trump and look to the CDC for guidance on this issue.
 

M1k3

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We've been ordered to go to delivery only until midnight the 31st...
 

WildBoar

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You’re giving the average American citizen far too much credit. 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human caused climate change is happening and yet people that lack a grade school understanding of science insist they know better. Not sure why you think Americans will ignore Trump and look to the CDC for guidance on this issue.
I guess it is an unfortunate byproduct of living on the edge of Washington, DC, where 98% of the population hates anything remotely Republican and they all think they have the answers to all of the problems in the world. It's ironic that this large demographic, who does nothing all day but wait for tweets and quotes they can tear apart, are waiting on word from the President on what they should be doing. "We know we should not be close to each other, but Trump says the virus isn't bad and I really want to go out drinking with 200 of my closest friends for St. Patrick's Day, so..."
 

Marek07

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upload_2020-3-16_15-27-14.png
You’re giving the average American citizen far too much credit. 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human caused climate change is happening and yet people that lack a grade school understanding of science insist they know better...
Indeed! And not just Americans... most of us!
 
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M1k3

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M1k3, where are you located???
I'm in L.A (San Pedro).

As for now, for me, mostly same work hours. I hope for those that get cut hours, that the reimbursement program from the government is real.
 

Johnny.B.Good

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I'm in L.A (San Pedro).

As for now, for me, mostly same work hours. I hope for those that get cut hours, that the reimbursement program from the government is real.
This must be a scary time for restaurant owners (and employees) all over the country. With so many hourly workers living paycheck to paycheck, the consequences of this thing will be devastating.

I host many small (40-80 persons) events each year that I have catered, and I worry about the company I use most often. I followed through with a small event last week but cancelled one next week, which must be happening to them across the board.
 

labor of love

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Locally, lots of places are voluntarily pushing curbside Togo service.
 

Gregmega

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I'm in L.A (San Pedro).

As for now, for me, mostly same work hours. I hope for those that get cut hours, that the reimbursement program from the government is real.
Reimbursement is the longhand ****** deal for most spots that don’t have a month capital (let alone a 2 weeks) to pay forward to keep a place open, even with curbside or grub hub carrying the weight. It’ll be tied up far ages and a lot of places won’t be to hold out long enough to recoup let alone reopen. I’m in LA as well, been in the fine dining scene my whole career. And I’ve never seen my colleagues in this way before. This will gut the landscape for a long while in this town.

But that doesn’t even get to the larger implications at hand, the entire industry and all its people going without work for these two weeks will certainly crush the most vulnerable among us, the day wagers. But in a way, those are also the people who would hide symptoms and keep showing up to work, because a day or two of is tantamount to not being able to pay rent.

A whole sector of LA’s economy just flushed into the Pacific Ocean. Fingers crossed and Godspeed to anyone near this thing.
 
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M1k3

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Oh yes it is going to cause a lot of bad stuff. I didn't know how to react to it.

I'm hourly. I need to work. Other people need to work to keep me working.

But, people are stupid.

:upsidedownspin:
 

M1k3

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And don't bother arguing about the stupid people thing. I get -I- didn't do anything, but, they are a risk to everyone. Like Utah Jazz player Gobert.
 

Matus

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Another reminder, even though I understand that it is not easy ... but ...

keep the politics out if this discussion

Otherwise this thread will soon be pushing up the daisies.

Thank you for understanding
 

Michi

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Part of the problem is that people have no experience with that kind of thing. We have not seen anything like this since the Spanish flu, and that was four generations ago. So, people don't know what to do, and they cannot judge how serious it is.

Another part of the problem is the—by and large—poor level of science knowledge. How many people really do know what exponential growth means? In my circle of contacts, almost no-one does. The people who do generally are computer geeks because exponential growth happens to be a very important thing for algorithm design. The only other people I know who understand it are scientists or in the medical profession.

And there is the distrust of science in general. It ranges from climate change denial to the flat earthers. Some people wear science ignorance like a badge of pride. "I don't want to know anything about this maths stuff, and I don't care." The same people wouldn't be seen dead not knowing who Van Gogh was, or Beethoven, or who wrote the Iliad—that would be considered embarrassing.

Never mind that the same people who do not trust science are perfectly happy to trust it when shoe is on the other foot, such as when they need surgery, climb on a plane, or use Google maps on their phone to get them where they want to go.
 

Michi

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Otherwise this thread will soon be pushing up the daisies.
As moderator of two other forums myself, I do understand your concerns, Matus.

I would ask you to exercise lenience though. I believe that this thread has been an important outlet and support forum for people to talk about this. Talking about stuff is therapeutic and makes people feel less isolated and helpless.

If at all possible, please try to keep this thread open.
 

mack

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My office (living in Austria) is closed for 14 days because of a potentially infected person. So it's home office-time, which isn't new in our company (we already have the possibility to do so 4 of 5 days a week, now we have 5 of 5 days).

Austria is next to Northern Italy so we take it serious here. The government took some heavy measures to stop the exponential growth and to flatten the curve. All shops, bars, restaurants,... are closed (excepting necessary ones), it isn't allowed to be in groups, playgrounds are closed, of course kindergartens, schools and universities are closed as well as nearly all borders. I am blessed because I live on a farm, so there is a lot of nature. Therefore at least I can go out with my kids. Can't imagine the same situation in the cities at the moment.

That said, Austria has one of the best public health systems worldwide, so nearly everything is done to face this pandemic - and in a rather early stage.

Unfortunately not all countries are that prepared and have worse health systems.
Let's see where this **** brings us.

All the best to all of you,
Mack.
 

Dhoff

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Matus, you asked for some numers a few days ago. In Denmark they stopped testing unless serious symptoms are present however:
5749 tested, 898 positive.
 

Michi

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It's quite amazing that, in Europe, they are closing schools, and in Australia, we are told that closing schools would make it worse for everyone.
 

mack

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It's quite amazing that, in Europe, they are closing schools, and in Australia, we are told that closing schools would make it worse for everyone.
They say closing schools reduce the social contacts about 10%. They also say - and that is most important - that you aren't allowed to let your parents or grand parents look after the kids, while you are at work. Therefore there is the possibility to stay at home for 3 weeks with full earnings. And I am sure the government is going to stretch this 3 weeks if necessary. They also say that for those, who aren't able to look after their kids (medical staff for instance) schools stay open, young teachers with low risk take care of the kids. Austria is a welfare state and maybe some of you get a feeling why I am happy it is that way.

Mack.
 

riba

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It's quite amazing that, in Europe, they are closing schools, and in Australia, we are told that closing schools would make it worse for everyone.
In The Netherlands, the government closed down schools due to societal pressure and not because the benefits outweigh the risks (on a scientific assessment considering economic and healthcare impact).
 

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People are going a little nuts up here (Canada) as well. Stores being stripped of TP and paper towels and canned goods. In some ways I really don’t get it. Kids don’t seem to be catching the virus, which is great. For the majority of people it doesn’t seem to amount to much more than a mild cold or influenza. The people mostly at risk are old people like me, with a compromised immune system. It seems like a bit of an overreaction to turn the economy upside down for something that doesn’t seem to amount to much more than a disease without a vaccine. I remember in my youth going through measles, scarlet fever, whooping cough, and of course the dreaded polio. These were all called epidemics and of course in the case of polio was very serious, affecting mostly young people, and no vaccine. For the most part these diseases were all highly contagious, and members of the family and neighbours got them. With time and rest the vast majority of people recovered without any issues. It seems like a bit of a stretch to declare that the world should go into a massive turmoil over something that will soon have a vaccine and like the diseases I mentioned will come and go.

Perhaps that’s a bit of perspective that age gives me, but honestly I wouldn’t get too worked up about the whole situation if I were you. I remember the family used to joke about the fact that my dad and my three brothers and I caught Scarlett fever all at the same time. I got shipped off to the hospital (I was 4 I think) with the family collection of comic books. My mother had to look after my dad and my three brothers at home. When everybody finally got over the disease, my mother had time to get sick with it. The biggest lament the family had at the time was that our entire collection of comic books had to be left at the hospital when I came home because they were contaminated. I shake my head to think what that big collection of comic books would be worth where I to have them today.

To me the saddest part is that the whole world is being turned into a state of turmoil and a lot of people are being hurt as the economy is shut down. In some respects I think it would be good if everybody just got sick and the world got over it. But if that happened what would the press, politicians and television have to flap their gums about!
 

Matus

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I was mad at local authorities for not doing more testing, but then watched an interesting interview (in German), where the doctor explained, that the test used to identify the infection is a geneneric coronavirus-family test (it was actually developed in Germany shortly after the outbreak started - even without having access to the Covid19 strain that causes the high mortality). And sice coronaviruses are pretty common and one of many to cause common flu (or sometimes, depending on the health condition of the patient a more serious lung infection), if one would test every person with a pneumonia, about 10% would be positive in this test. That makes it of little value to test ‘everyone’ and that’s why usually only those suspected to be infected are testet.
 

birdsfan

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LA is not the only area that is enforcing a mandatory restaurant dine-in shut down. We just got word yesterday that Eastern PA is doing the same thing. For my spot it is probably a good thing since our patrons average age looks to be late 60's.

Hopefully the take out/GrubHub business picks up or I will have to start selling stuff on Ebay!
 
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