Preparing for COVID-19

[Luftmensch]

It's a special thing due to this pandemic.
But our social system offers more annual benefits: 5 or 6 weeks holidays (depends on how long you've been working already), 1 weeks nursing leave per child (for both the mother and the father - which for instance for my family with 2 kids means in total 4 weeks of nursing leave in total), both with continuing full earnings. A 13th and 14th monthly salary (it's called holiday-money and christmas-money) has also to be paid by law. And you have some special holiday-days, for instance: 2 extra days paid when you are moving from one place to another (which doesn't happen very often in Austria), 3 extra days paid when you get married, 1 extra day paid for the funeral of one of your grandparents and so on and so on.

Very, very cool... I am envious. I really do think people (and the economy) would be better off if those who lost work were able to access minimum wage for some period.

We have an ok list of employee entitlements. Less generous than Austria.... but not bad at all. Maybe that is what happens when you take the letters "a" and "l" out of the name?

Therefore the country takes around 40-50% of my incomings for financing these things (not only those above, also the health care system, the unemployment benefit, public pension,...). But I highly appreciate it.

Absolutely! I have no problem paying tax if it builds society! Sure...

Currently our top tax bracket is 45% - but they have been fiddling with it recently. It changes with the political winds. I would like to see it move towards being even more progressive and more top heavy.

 

[CiderBear]

I was going to suggest you don't need to be a complete shut-in



I had to comb back through the thread to find this piece of information. That sucks. Im sorry you are in that situation.... Sounds like you are currently ok physically? That is good. I can see how the social/mental part would be problematic. You'll have to complete your quarantine. I guess our modern comforts are a blessing - you can still maintain social bonds over the phone/video calls or messaging.

Check with your local health professional what your quarantine rules are. This is what the CDC advises. If you can take a walk around the block (or in a local park?) and maintain a healthy distance from others, it might help clear your head and provide a change of scenery. If the idea appeals, check if it is permissible.



Ha! Sounds like a regular day for me... except the hair washing thing.... when was the last time....

I'm not under "quarantine." I have been self isolating and working from home for 10 days because I recently came back from international travel, so I did not have any overlap in the building with the 2 confirmed cases.

 

[Michi]

I'm not under "quarantine." I have been self isolating and working from home for 10 days because I recently came back from international travel, so I did not have any overlap in the building with the 2 confirmed cases.

That's the right thing to do. Better for yourself, and better for everyone else around you.

I don't know your age. If you are young(-ish), your chances are pretty good.

I'm 60 years old, and I face a roughly 5% risk of dying if I get infected. Depending on the timing of when I will (inevitably) get infected, I may be fine, or I may be part of the cohort that gets infected at the wrong time and gets discarded in favour of 40-year olds with children. (Rightfully so, I might add.) Check what's happening in Italy. Doctors are forced to choose hundreds of times every day.

My best bet is to not get infected for at least four more months, or to get infected a few days ago. In the latter case, I might just end up in hospital while there are still enough respirators to go around. Unfortunately, given how cautious I have been, I don't like my chances of being part of the first wave.

 

[ITKKF]

My best bet is to not get infected for at least four more months, or to get infected a few days ago. In the latter case, I might just end up in hospital while there are still enough respirators to go around. Unfortunately, given how cautious I have been, I don't like my chances of being part of the first wave.

I do believe percentages are much smaller, due to many cases being undetected. Also, you are in the bottom of the age range so I'd assume that further decreases the possibility.

In any case I wish you and the rest of the community here best of luck for the coming times!

 

[podzap]

I'm 60 years old, and I face a roughly 5% risk of dying if I get infected.

Not likely anywhere near 5% unless you are diabetic or have hypertension (due to the treatment drugs for both of those conditions greatly increasing the amount of ACE2 enzymes, which seems to be the thing that turns things really south with Covid-19). BTW, ibuprofen also raises ACE2...

In the event you get infected and your breathing becomes critically difficult and you can't get on a respirator, just take some viagra or cialis - it reduces pulmonary hypertension and may very well save your life.

Some good reading here: https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lanres/PIIS2213-2600(20)30116-8.pdf

 

[daveb]

....just take some viagra or cialis - it reduces pulmonary hypertension and may very well save your life.

And if doesn't work you'll certainly have a memorable transition for you and those around you.....

 

[podzap]

And if doesn't work you'll certainly have a memorable transition for you and those around you.....

https://www.health.harvard.edu/press_releases/viagra-and-pulmonary-hypertension

 

[Dave Martell]

And if doesn't work you'll certainly have a memorable transition for you and those around you.....

The family will be playing ring toss when you hit the floor.

 

[Lucretia]

Here in Washington State (about an hour out of Seattle) everything is shutting down. We had our first fatality near us today at our "in network" hospital--a woman in her 50s. If you look at the numbers, the mortality rates have been pretty high in the state, but the numbers have been somewhat skewed by deaths at one nursing home (I want to say it's been around 6% of confirmed cases.) Very concerned about some of our local restaurants, as they are all closed except for takeout & delivery. Mr. Lucretia and I are in higher risk groups, so we've mostly been hiding out at home. Hoping our grocery follows the trend of plenty of produce--plenty of meat in the freezer and rice/pasta in the pantry, but perishables could run out if we're ordered to shelter in place. Our grocery stores are starting old fart/high risk shopping hours a couple times a week beginning tomorrow. I might need to run out and get some fresh veg. We tried ordering groceries for delivery, but the grocery is slammed and not scheduling any new deliveries at this time. I also have some ancient vegetable seeds that I might try starting to see if they're still viable.

On the positive side...I grew up in a household of 6 women. Running out of toilet paper was something to be feared. So I keep a good supply on hand. Mr. Lucretiah occasionally counts the rolls we have in the house and gives me a hard time about it. This might cure him of that nasty little habit.

 

[bahamaroot]

Some of the grocery stores here do senior and high risk group only for the first couple hours they open each morning. I think they do extra cleaning in the evening after closing to prepare for them.

...I grew up in a household of 6 women...

That in itself should be feared.

 

[podzap]

Here in Washington State (about an hour out of Seattle) everything is shutting down. We had our first fatality near us today at our "in network" hospital--a woman in her 50s. If you look at the numbers, the mortality rates have been pretty high in the state, but the numbers have been somewhat skewed by deaths at one nursing home (I want to say it's been around 6% of confirmed cases.)

Back in late August 2009, I came down with one of the first cases of "swine flu" (H1N1) in Finland. It hit me less than three days after I'd returned home on an airplane from a vacation in Italy with my girlfriend at the time. I was 42 years old and pretty damned overweight, having a BMI of almost 36 (pre-diabetic diagnosis from my doctor also). I wound up in bed with several daily alternations of extreme fever and then cooling down, completely soaking my bed with sweat also several times per day. And yes, I was also drinking water like crazy. This is the only time in my life so far that I thought I might not make it through an illness, but ironic as it sounds the fatter you are the better chance you have getting through H1N1. It literally knocked 7kg (15.4 lbs) off of me in 1 week time. And it didn't come back, so it wasn't simply water lost due to sweating - I lost fat+muscle and a lot of it. I got so encouraged that I changed my diet and went on to lose another 25 kg (55 lbs or so). Being obese probably saved my life in that case, though - just imagine something that knocks 15 lbs off a thin person in 1 week time...

Fast forward to Covid-19 and the situation regarding obesity is just the opposite. The weight itself won't cause the virus to kill you, but we all know that obesity carries both diabetes as well as hypertension along with it. As mentioned, the medicines for either of those greatly increase your risk of having a fatal outcome should you contract this virus. Given that there are nationwide epidemics of obesity in both USA and also UK, the fatality rates may very well be higher than they are in places where folks are closer to 25 on the BMI scale. But the statistics will speak for themselves after all is said and done.

 

[ITKKF]

This just came through the corporate email.

Here are five simple things that company_name_here medical experts recommend to help yourself during this period:

1. Maintain regular contact with family and friends
 Social interaction is important; technology can help us all stay close

2. Stay connected to your colleagues
 Have a virtual coffee
 Set up a buddy system and check in daily

3. Limit media exposure, and use only reliable sources
 Keeping informed is good; non-stop news is not

4. Take care of yourself to reduce stress and increase immunity
 Get enough sleep, eat well and exercise if you can

5. Share your strength … and your concerns
 If you feel great, help someone out; if you do not feel great, accept help
 Speak to someone: a friend, a colleague, your manager or HR

 

[DamageInc]

We were recommended to swing by the office to get a monitor and keyboard to bring home in case we get neck or shoulder aches from working on our laptops.

Also, "if you get sick, notify your manager immediately".

I like working from home. Get to make important decisions while wearing pajamas. Food is better here too.

 

[Luftmensch]

I'm not under "quarantine." I have been self isolating and working from home for 10 days because I recently came back from international travel, so I did not have any overlap in the building with the 2 confirmed cases.

Out of curiosity... under whose advice? And what instructions? Dont get me wrong... Im not suggesting you should doubt the advice you were given. Or encourage you to do the wrong thing.... In fact... You needn't answer those questions. I just want to be sure you are satisfied you got given good advice by a trusted authority (for instance a doctor and not your workplace) - particularly if it is driving you stir crazy!

We are working from home now. I don't miss public transport. I counted/estimated 150 seats. In the past, there could probably be another 100 standing. That is 250 people shoulder to shoulder in a tin can...

 

[Michi]

I made the call to self-isolate twelve days ago. It's working so far. Unfortunately, there is a time limit on that. Eventually, I will have to go back and make contact with people. At which point, I'll most likely get infected anyway. But, if I can string it out for another three or four months, that's one respirator I either won't get, or won't be taking away from someone else.

Current (competent) estimates of how many Australians will eventually catch the virus range as high as 80%. Meaning that it will be endemic, and that there is absolutely no way to run away from it.

 

[Luftmensch]

I have been providing some Australian updates along the way. I suppose it is not 'covid preparation' but it may be of interest to the international community here who might not otherwise see Ozzie news. Today's developments have been quite large:

• Travel ban on all non-citizens!
  • QANTAS suspending international flights later this month and grounding a large portion of its fleet
    • Two-thirds of QANTAS employees stood-down (about 20,000)
    • Take this with a grain of salt: a friend of mine connected to the aviation industry said that grounding a plane basically means a minimum of six months until it flies due to all the maintenance and regulation in grounding it and bringing it back. Seems plausible
• Reserve Bank:
  • cut interest rates to a record low of 0.25%
  • buying government bonds as part of its first-ever quantitative easing program
• Some over-the-counter drugs (paracetamol, ventolin) being moved behind the counter to stop hoarders
  • Essentially one unit per customer
• Tasmania (the little island off the big island) shuts its boarders. Probably the only state that can easily do this. Non-residents arriving in the state will need to self-quarantine.

 

[Luftmensch]

Current (competent) estimates of how many Australians will eventually catch the virus range as high as 80%. Meaning that it will be endemic, and that there is absolutely no way to run away from it.

Do you have a link for this? I could only find iffy reports of 20%... I am sure the modelling is very fluid at this stage....

I made the call to self-isolate twelve days ago. It's working so far. Unfortunately, there is a time limit on that. Eventually, I will have to go back and make contact with people.

We have been asked to... We aren't eliminating office requirements completely. We still have meetings in person if required. Otherwise it is phones and video conferencing. There are other aspects of the job that require us to be on site. This reduces my need to be there down to maybe once a week.

Right now the Government is ratcheting up mitigation. It could do nothing and 'fix it' by exposing everyone to accumulate herd immunity - but this would result in an unacceptable death toll. 'Flattening the curve' is the slow boil solution (how many times a day do we hear this now?). We have relatively low numbers of infection so we still have the ability to do contact tracing. Lets keep it that way! Expecting this to peak in a month is a pipe dream. Expecting it to peter out in 6 months is wistful thinking. This could last up to 18 months! From a public health perspective, it is not tenable for employers to be inflexible about working from home.

... Once the Government closes schools... work places will have to be flexible. Maybe you should start a mini-union in your office and ask them to justify why you shouldn't work from home until better information is available?


This is a live experiment. Admitting it is fascinating is perhaps a bit off-colour... but it is! It is history in the making.

 

[Michi]

Do you have a link for this? I could only find iffy reports of 20%... I am sure the modelling is very fluid at this stage....

Normans Swan on ABC, from memory. Or have a look through the past two days of ABC news. It does stand to reason. Given how infectious this thing is, it'll get almost everyone eventually. (From memory, the low range of the estimates was ~30%, so there is a huge range of uncertainty,)

Right now the Government is ratcheting up mitigation. It could do nothing and 'fix it' by exposing everyone to accumulate herd immunity - but this would result in an unacceptable death toll. 'Flattening the curve' is the slow boil solution (how many times a day do we hear this now?). We have relatively low numbers of infection so we still have the ability to do contact tracing. Lets keep it that way! Expecting this to peak in a month is a pipe dream. Expecting it to peter out in 6 months is wistful thinking. This could last up to 18 months! From a public health perspective, it is not tenable for employers to be inflexible about working from home.

It will stop once enough people have been through the illness (or have died) for herd immunity to kick in. Or once we have a vaccine. Whichever comes sooner. My money is on herd immunity

... Once the Government closes schools..

They are still in denial about this. It would most certainly be the right thing to do, if what you care about is the number of people who won't die. But the decision isn't about the number of dead people. Instead, it's about trying to avoid instant and catastrophic economic collapse.

What everyone is still in denial about is that catastrophic economic collapse is a near certainty at this point, close schools or no closed schools.

 

[CiderBear]

Out of curiosity... under whose advice? And what instructions? Dont get me wrong... Im not suggesting you should doubt the advice you were given. Or encourage you to do the wrong thing.... In fact... You needn't answer those questions. I just want to be sure you are satisfied you got given good advice by a trusted authority (for instance a doctor and not your workplace) - particularly if it is driving you stir crazy!

We are working from home now. I don't miss public transport. I counted/estimated 150 seats. In the past, there could probably be another 100 standing. That is 250 people shoulder to shoulder in a tin can...

Yep I'm not going to answer that

 

[podzap]

What everyone is still in denial about is that catastrophic economic collapse is a near certainty at this point, close schools or no closed schools.

Maybe so. If that really happens, I'm super glad that I own almost every kind of tool imaginable.

 

[Luftmensch]

Yep I'm not going to answer that

Absolutely . Just making sure you're satisfied with the support you were given. Anyway! Not long to go eh? Four more days...

 

[WildBoar]

What everyone is still in denial about is that catastrophic economic collapse is a near certainty at this point, close schools or no closed schools.

I'm not so sure about this. Food is still being produced and distributes, as are other essential goods. And some online services such as Zoom are, well, zooming. Everything is not going away; many companies will be beaten into the ground, but some others will be turning into high-flyers. It will just take a while for this to balance out.

Just like there will be many people out of work due to their business closing down, there is an extensive need for more healthcare workers. There will never stop being essential needs; they will just be different than before.

 

[lowercasebill]

I'm not so sure about this. Food is still being produced and distributes, as are other essential goods. And some online services such as Zoom are, well, zooming. Everything is not going away; many companies will be beaten into the ground, but some others will be turning into high-flyers. It will just take a while for this to balance out.

Just like there will be many people out of work due to their business closing down, there is an extensive need for more healthcare workers. There will never stop being essential needs; they will just be different than before.

Costco covid update ended with we need 100,000 new employees.

 

[daveb]

Future historians / economists will look back and conclude that the economy fully recovered in only x years.

Those living in the economy may view it differently.

 

[Luftmensch]

Normans Swan on ABC, from memory. Or have a look through the past two days of ABC news. It does stand to reason. Given how infectious this thing is, it'll get almost everyone eventually. (From memory, the low range of the estimates was ~30%, so there is a huge range of uncertainty,)

I'll poke around and see what comes up. Im just a guy... what do I know!? Something is tickling my scepticism about 80% though.

Coronacast did cite this article - they did some natty bayesian modelling to arrive at the conclusion that 86% of all infections in China were undocumented. The undocumented cases were less infectious but to balance the model it looks like they accounted for 79% of documented cases. Just to split a hair here... these numbers are about the sub-population of infected people. Not relative to the entire population.

It seems like it is stabilising in China (for now). Currently China has 81,174 confirmed cases. Over simplifying the article above.... lets say this makes up 14% of the infected population. The remaining undocumented population (86%) is then 498,640 people - a total of 579,814 infected. The current population is 1,439,324,000. Rounding the numbers... let use 600,000 infected out of 1.4 billion people. Thats a measly 0.04%!!!

Over simplified I know... Did I get the numbers wrong there?

 

[ITKKF]

It seems like it is stabilising in China (for now). Currently China has 81,174 confirmed cases. Over simplifying the article above.... lets say this makes up 14% of the infected population. The remaining undocumented population (86%) is then 498,640 people - a total of 579,814 infected. The current population is 1,439,324,000. Rounding the numbers... let use 600,000 infected out of 1.4 billion people. Thats a measly 0.04%!!!

Over simplified I know... Did I get the numbers wrong there?

No, you didn't. That's all assuming source data is close to correct of course. On the same data applying calculations for death toll gives us (3245 / 579814)*100 = 0.559%. That's a lot different from the official figures. And yes, deaths could be actually more, but not by a large margin.

 

[Luftmensch]

What everyone is still in denial about is that catastrophic economic collapse is a near certainty at this point, close schools or no closed schools.

I'm not so sure about this. Food is still being produced and distributes, as are other essential goods. And some online services such as Zoom are, well, zooming. Everything is not going away; many companies will be beaten into the ground, but some others will be turning into high-flyers. It will just take a while for this to balance out.

Just like there will be many people out of work due to their business closing down, there is an extensive need for more healthcare workers. There will never stop being essential needs; they will just be different than before.

Australia escaped the GFC relatively unscathed. All told we did very well - to the extent that we can pretend it never happened. It was a story we read about somebody else. We have the 5th highest household debt in the OECD. When unemployment rises - as it will when economic activity slows - all that debt implodes. Similarly look at all the corporate debt globally. Perhaps the past decade has only represented a band-aid fix and some of the pathologies that caused the GFC were never properly resolved. When industries shut down (tourism, hospitality), corporate debt cant be serviced either. Credit markets have looked at whats going on and freaked out.

 

[Luftmensch]

No, you didn't. That's all assuming source data is close to correct of course. On the same data applying calculations for death toll gives us (3245 / 579814)*100 = 0.559%. That's a lot different from the official figures. And yes, deaths could be actually more, but not by a large margin.

I suppose one has to proceed with extreme caution when 'joe internet' pretends to understand an article that is predicated on evolving evidence and assumptions. Particularly when joe then attempts to draw conclusions from the article and extrapolate them into an oversimplified calculation

It is easy to get stuck on specifics and not the broad conclusions of the modelling. The article presents a credible hypothesis (model): that the growth in confirmed cases (in China) can be plausibly attributed to a much, much larger population of undocumented cases.

 

[Michi]

I'll poke around and see what comes up. Im just a guy... what do I know!? Something is tickling my scepticism about 80% though.

I found the source again. I was wrong, the upper end of the range that is mentioned is 60%, not 80%. Still, that's 15 million Australians…
The most optimistic scenario expects 5 million infections and 50,000 deaths.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...0-000-coronavirus-deaths-20200316-p54amn.html

 

[Luftmensch]

Back in late August 2009, I came down with one of the first cases of "swine flu" (H1N1) in Finland. It hit me less than three days after I'd returned home on an airplane from a vacation in Italy with my girlfriend at the time. I was 42 years old and pretty damned overweight, having a BMI of almost 36 (pre-diabetic diagnosis from my doctor also). I wound up in bed with several daily alternations of extreme fever and then cooling down, completely soaking my bed with sweat also several times per day. And yes, I was also drinking water like crazy. This is the only time in my life so far that I thought I might not make it through an illness, but ironic as it sounds the fatter you are the better chance you have getting through H1N1. It literally knocked 7kg (15.4 lbs) off of me in 1 week time. And it didn't come back, so it wasn't simply water lost due to sweating - I lost fat+muscle and a lot of it. I got so encouraged that I changed my diet and went on to lose another 25 kg (55 lbs or so). Being obese probably saved my life in that case, though - just imagine something that knocks 15 lbs off a thin person in 1 week time...

Fast forward to Covid-19 and the situation regarding obesity is just the opposite. The weight itself won't cause the virus to kill you, but we all know that obesity carries both diabetes as well as hypertension along with it. As mentioned, the medicines for either of those greatly increase your risk of having a fatal outcome should you contract this virus. Given that there are nationwide epidemics of obesity in both USA and also UK, the fatality rates may very well be higher than they are in places where folks are closer to 25 on the BMI scale. But the statistics will speak for themselves after all is said and done.

...By the way... Glad you survived it. Wow... I have had some 'bad' colds... but I don't think any of them were the flu. So I don't really have anything close as a point of reference - sounds like a horrible, horrible experience.

Today's body image definitely idolises the fit and lean (hence the active wear craze). But that does not mean that all healthy body types require a marginal body fat percentage. So long as you are healthy, a bit of insulation can be good for you

Remember in the 90's when emaciated, heroin-chic was in vogue!? At least we're not there anymore...