Preparing for COVID-19

Discussion in 'The Off Topic Room' started by lowercasebill, Mar 3, 2020.

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  1. Mar 26, 2020 #721

    WildBoar

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    It will help a little locally. They have to figure out a way to distribute. Hopefully they give the are hospitals first crack.

    I was on one of the web sites the other day planning an order for a few different amaros. The next day I saw the announcement. Guessing amaros will need to wait a month or two (we are willing to take one for the Team, and do without for a while)
     
  2. Mar 26, 2020 #722

    CiderBear

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    Ace Beverage is my neighborhood liquor store. I was chatting to the owner the other day and he told me that Republic Restoratives and One Eighth were making handsanitizer. They got a couple bottle from RR for personal use, but he was waiting to see if there would be enough for retail.
     
  3. Mar 26, 2020 #723

    ModRQC

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    Think the point was more : trust your better judgment.

    Otherwise articulated : what do we know about COVID-19 ?

    Sure, it seems there's a lot of stuff we know. Mostly statistics (those still not the true picture depending on Suspected/Confirmed case, who does what testings and how they report exactly), symptoms (which are obvious for one thing, and more or less generic also of other dangerous Coronaviruses we know, SARS and MERS, as well as hundred other viruses), the guidelines of what to do and what to avoid (purely textbook contamination control, there's nothing remotely hard to figure out for oneself there); and then all the craziness that follows is directing an awful lot of what I call filling data in every direction you look at, and more dangerous still, conflicting data, when not purely disingenuous or self-profiting.

    Of course, if you search, and do it well, you'll find some raw data that's genuine; most of it at levels that most MDs cannot operate; some of it at levels where you cannot verify or do a single thing about it. And where does one of your beloved authorities rise to stop this nonsense, and when he/she/it does, be truly heard? Apart from telling you to stay home, and that NO, you shouldn't think a paint mask will protect you, and NO you shouldn't be worried about a sneeze and crowd hospitals for no good reason.

    One really good reason there's not much potent data about COVID-19 is that, outside of all being in containment/reaction mode, stats, and what we know from previous outbreaks, there's nothing much to be known yet.

    Soooooo... yes, on one hand, I will not listen to some stupid anchorman telling me I should go off hoard all available necessities... and yes, on the other hand, I will not take seriously a supposed medical authority that says there's nothing to it but hype. I'll just devised what's best to do under the circumstances I'm presented for myself.

    And you're free to verify anything I said about this from the onset, and tell me I was way off marks. Didn't do it to show off knowledge I cannot backup with any authority whatsoever, but because I cared that some KKF members were a bit panicked or clinging to useless modern talismans like masks as if they would save their life - not seeing the importance of the other extreme - who said one was doomed WITHOUT one - or doomed at all - if one uses basic facts and common sense?
     
  4. Mar 26, 2020 #724
  5. Mar 26, 2020 #725

    Chuckles

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    That is not very encouraging.
     
  6. Mar 26, 2020 #726

    birdsfan

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  7. Mar 27, 2020 at 12:36 AM #727

    Bladerunner

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    . This is a must-view video on how to handle your groceries, packaging, and food take-out!
     
  8. Mar 27, 2020 at 12:49 AM #728

    ian

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    I’m on the fence about how anal to be when I bring in mail or groceries. My default is to be pretty sterile, but I keep hearing about how there’s no evidence that the virus is really spread from surfaces, so I’m not sure what to think. Then again, maybe “there’s no evidence” makes sense, because how would you collect that kind of evidence? It’s easier to prove that someone had contact with an infected person than to prove that they didn’t have contact with an infected person, and therefore they must have gotten the virus from a surface or something.

    In the meantime, I’m pretty careful to throw away any wrapping immediately, wipe things down with a disinfecting wipe when possible, and practice sterile hand management.
     
  9. Mar 27, 2020 at 12:55 AM #729

    Bladerunner

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    According to this video, there is now evidence that the (COVID19) virus may still viable after 17 days on cruise ships... :(
     
  10. Mar 27, 2020 at 2:12 AM #730

    Kippington

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    Corrections & clarifications: The Centers for Disease Control found that novel coronavirus RNA (the genetic material), not the coronavirus itself, was identified on surfaces in Diamond Princess cruise ship cabins up to 17 days after cabins were vacated. (source)

    The media has gotta be really careful about the way they word things.
    You know how your DNA can be found in a location you've been to, even if you're not there anymore? The CDC reported finding the DNA equivalent (RNA) for SARS-CoV-2 in cruse ship cabins 17 days after being vacated. It's worth noting that they never reported finding the virus itself after 17 days.
     
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  11. Mar 27, 2020 at 2:14 AM #731

    CiderBear

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  12. Mar 27, 2020 at 2:18 AM #732

    ian

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    I crown you debunker in chief, given your recent streak. (If someone debunks you, though, they will be debunker in chief.)

    The video also makes a point of saying that Italy’s highest death toll came 10 days after they enforced the quarantine, as if this indicates that people were still going out or getting infected by groceries or something, without mentioning that it takes a while for someone to die after being infected. I can’t remember the exact stats, but if the most people were infected on the day before the quarantine, it would not be surprising if the most deaths happened around 10 days later.
     
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  13. Mar 27, 2020 at 2:32 AM #733

    Michi

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    Exactly. Any measure we take now to reduce infections does not show its effects for about two weeks. There is a 5-7 day incubation period, and then it takes a few more days for people to develop symptoms that are serious enough to be noticed.

    It's what makes this thing so hideous: the numbers we see today reflect the situation as it was two weeks in the past :(
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020 at 3:00 AM
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  14. Mar 27, 2020 at 2:37 AM #734

    Kippington

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    "The deaths we see today take 20 days or so from when you develop symptoms to when they die. So the deaths we see today correspond to the epidemic 20 days ago." (source)

    As Michi notes - This doesn't include the incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms).
    I just like accurate information. :D
    There's a healthy amount of fear we should all have for this pandemic. Misinformation can increase that fear to unreasonable levels (or decrease it to dangerous levels).
     
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  15. Mar 27, 2020 at 2:40 AM #735

    bahamaroot

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  16. Mar 27, 2020 at 3:06 AM #736

    Kippington

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    Every so often I wonder: Imagine where we'd be today if China hadn't acted quickly to cancel this years Lunar New Year celebrations, the world's largest annual human migration... :eek:
    [​IMG]
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    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020 at 3:20 AM
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  17. Mar 27, 2020 at 4:14 AM #737

    Luftmensch

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    +100

    I have been saying this to everyone who freaks out at the whispers about how long it lasts on surfaces - this misunderstanding has been going around since the beginning. The presence of RNA doth not necessarily an active viron make...
     
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  18. Mar 27, 2020 at 4:45 AM #738

    Luftmensch

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  19. Mar 27, 2020 at 5:15 AM #739

    Kippington

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    It's actually a really neat testament to how well the science has advanced recently. A hundred years ago during the Spanish flu pandemic they had no idea if it was even a virus. Today we can see the evidence a virus leaves behind, even after it's gone - which I imagine can't be an easy thing to achieve. Very cool :rolleyes:

    "I cant help thinking... how much our understanding of virus infections has changed over the years. Back in the day when we could isolate some in cell culture, we could do some serology... and now we can do respiratory panels and find nucleic acids - how it's just changing our view. There's one thing that I have been working with is that with an acute virus - the RNA may persist for months, even after the virus is gone." (source)

    - Vincent R. Racaniello, Professor in the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at Columbia University’s College of Physicians and Surgeons
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020 at 5:21 AM
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  20. Mar 27, 2020 at 6:57 AM #740

    Nemo

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  21. Mar 27, 2020 at 12:55 PM #741

    lowercasebill

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    Some random thoughts.
    Here in USA source of infection for the great majority of cases is unknown. It is not unreasonable to assume many of them were acquired by touching something. Granted aerosols are the most effective route but not the only. I have sleep apnea and a cpap machine. Cpap company has big push on ozone generator for disinfecting. They say ozone kills COVID in 30 seconds. I bought an ozone generator years ago never really used it. Now nothing comes in the house untreated and i use it in the bathroom once per day. It is a PIA and stinks but...... I saw a decent one online for $129
    Be safe
     
  22. Mar 27, 2020 at 1:51 PM #742

    Michi

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    Maybe so, maybe not. In the absence of evidence, we simply do not know.

    For what it’s worth, Australian data indicates that the majority of infections happen when people are in close physical proximity. At this point, there is no evidence to suggest that we are getting new infections because an infected person touched something and someone else picked it up because they came by and touched the same object later. It seems more likely that the infection spreads mostly via droplets when someone coughs or sneezes.

    Regardless, either way, personal hygiene is paramount. We know that the virus can hang around on surfaces for quite some time, so hand washing, not touching one’s face, and similar are hugely important. But the single most effective protection is to stay away from other people. I can’t catch the virus if I don’t come near someone who carries it.

    As to ozone, it seems reasonable that it might kill the virus: ozone is a very aggressive oxidant. Note that ozone is toxic above some threshold; I would suggest to check safe exposure limits.
     
  23. Mar 27, 2020 at 2:06 PM #743

    lowercasebill

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    My ozone exposure is limited to holding my breath while i open bathroom window and turn on fan.
     
  24. Mar 27, 2020 at 4:24 PM #744

    HRC_64

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    The "requirement for the exististence of data" is not itself without issue...
    We have DATA from SARS corona virus version 1, and there is also alot of CONFOUNDING data on aerosolization of SARS 1 and 2

    This is a "reasonable" (journalistic) summary of "a range" of data out there.>
    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-can-become-aerosol-doesnt-mean-doomed/
     
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  25. Mar 27, 2020 at 4:31 PM #745

    HRC_64

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    It seems the loo is the one domestic area with the highest liklihood of aersolization

    Its worth noting that avoid aersolization from dirty water being disutuberd / flushed (eg at a later date) is a potential source of aersolization. Preumable so is the shower or a sink that has been soiled with contamiated physical dirt/debris.
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020 at 4:36 PM
  26. Mar 27, 2020 at 11:31 PM #746

    HRC_64

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    It's important to read the fine-print on various studies.

    Earlier, it was estimated based on SARS v-1 that Cov-2 could last 2-9 days on surfaces. Then they tested aerosolized versions and got 1-3 days. But here we see a different test showing 7 days. The key difference is not only the media is a variable, but so are the innoculation techniques> This means you get more of a "matrix" of results rather than a simple "single point" reult for your answer. This is important because splashing vs aersolization vs soiling etc are all possible methods of "real world" contamination in clinical settings, and there are multiple types of surface which may be infected (metal, plastic, cloth, etc).

    One reason "medical" grade of surgical masks (as discussed earlier) are different from industrial grade is that medical masks are at huge riks of "splash" contamination. SO medical n95 and often other surgical masks are "liquid resistant" by desingn. In fact, in order to "re-use" disposable surgical n95 the CDC guidelines require the n95 be "double" masked with either another (non n95) or a full face-shield to avoid liquid contamination.

    Earlier today a research article from Hong Kong provided data wich supports these earlier decision steps:
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036673v2
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036673v1.full.pdf

     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020 at 11:37 PM
  27. Mar 28, 2020 at 2:41 AM #747

    Michi

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    Ah, induction :) It's vexed philosophers for ages. The problem is that the conclusion contains more information than the premises provide.

    Here is a decent article that talks about how the virus spreads in layman's terms:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-03-28/is-coronavirus-airborne-covid19-australia/12090974

    TL;DR: There is no evidence at the moment that (unlike measles) the virus spreads by floating in the air and getting inhaled—but we cannot positively rule this out yet as a method of transmission either. Infection is possible by droplets getting deposited on a surface and then getting collected by someone else. Most likely is direct droplet infection: someone coughing or sneezing nearby.

    The core message has not changed: stay away from other people, wash hands after returning from a trip (and use sanitizer during the trip), don't touch your face until after your hands are clean again.

    Most importantly: don't move about unless you really have to. If you don't have the infection already and you stay put where you are, you can't get it.
     
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  28. Mar 28, 2020 at 1:21 PM #748

    Bill13

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    Looks like the beginning of the backtracking has begun. This is from The New England Journal of Medicine and one of the authors is Dr Fauci. Bold is mine.

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

    On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2
     
  29. Mar 28, 2020 at 1:25 PM #749

    lowercasebill

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    For what it's worth.
    My state over the last 4 days
    +250, +275, +500, +1000
     
  30. Mar 28, 2020 at 1:31 PM #750

    Bill13

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