Random draw systems to buy knives

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Hi there,

Thought that may be interesting to chat a little here about the random draw I use to select people for customs and for available knives. Not my invention. And seems like more and more makers are working this way. This discussion can help me to set things more properly maybe and can help other makers to set a similar system if they want to. It can also give a bit of information for people who discover a maker and learn he is working with a random draw.
I read this recently on kkf:
The only problem is that seniority doesn't mean much in the end. Since more and more people join it doesn't matter how long you have been on his list. Your chances are getting slimmer with every new draw. It doesn't really matter if your chances are 1% or 0.4%.
I like that he gives new guys a chance to acquire his work though.
Also the last raffle of his Cleaver and Suji had over 100 people entered, you can be sure there were some second accounts in it.

First custom orders : The random draw system I have set got a point system : I make a draw every 4 months and every 4 months everybody got 1 more points. People who subscribed 2 years ago got 6 points, people who just subscribed got 1 point. People who were picked last draw got 0 points and will wait next draw to have 1 point.
I did not make the program, a friend of mine did, here is what it says : 6 points : 6% of chance to get picked, 5 points : 5% of chance, 4 points : 4% of chance, etc...

Sure, if like 200 people subscribe to the list once, so 200 with 1 point, and the list is now 300 people, there will be a lot of new people in the draw and even if people with 6 points have more chance to get picked, they won't have a huge advantage. But looks like the list is now more and more stable (85 new people for the last draw, the list is now 450 people) and the last draw was pretty good for the "senior" : 6 people picked : 1 with 6 points, 1 with 5 points, 2 with 4 points, 1 with 3 points, 1 with 2 points.

This system is not here to give advantage to people waiting for a long time. My idea is to give a chance to anyone, people who know my work for a long time and people who discovered my work 3 months ago to be able to have a custom knife with me. On that topic, is it the most fair, maybe not. But again, my knives, my rules and in the end it’s me to set the fairness where I want it to be.
I don't want to be fist come, first serve nor first people who know me first. So I thought about the random draw system. But I thought it could be nice though to give a little more chance to people who subscribe for a long time ; this was not give them much more chance (if not I would just choose within people who got 6 points), but to make a balance. It may feel rude to people who want a custom from me for a long time (which is relative, I am existing on social media since about covid, march 2020, so 4 years), but I make my knives the way I like and surprisingly I try to sell them the way I like too. I choose to unite all people interested by my work, without prioritize the people who know me for longer time.

Second the available knives, sale through random draw :
Again, I have chosen not to work with first come, first serve but to make a draw of all people interested by the knife I got for sell. People got 24 hours to subscribe, so whatever their location they have time to think about that purchase and participate or not. For those sales, I am working with a different list of people and no point system. All people on the list are aware when a knife is available and only the people interested, who will subscribe to a form on my website, will actually participate to the draw.
Of course it is not perfect and my system can’t really detect people who use mutiple mails or ask all their family and friends to participate to have more chance. I do delete any double entry and any entry that is out of my newsletter, but apart from that, sure people can cheat a little. My position is that for any rule, there will be always people who will think about the limits and will try to “cheat” and find a way to have more chance than others. I don’t agree with that behaviour and I try share with all my customers a spirit of fairness where everybody got same chance and ask people to behave with my rules. But I am not there to control everything too and I try to set a fair game, then if people don’t want to respect me and the game I have set, I can’t really do anything for them.
If you have an idea to secure the draw avoiding double entry, without being too intrusive (I don’t want to check all id cards of my customers !), you’re welcome.

What are you though about all that ?
Do you have ideas to improve that system ?

Have a nice day,
 
Coming from another hobby where the product type by maker is scarce, wanted, and hard to acquire - raffle is the only way this is handled with once in a while commissions opened or a random FCFS thrown in there.

I think it is a perfectly fair way to allow both newcomers and tenured vets access your products and in the end - I believe you as the maker get to decide how your product is acquired.

In regards to double entries and more - this is a never ending challenge anywhere on the internet. In the other hobbies, entries are done via google forms with requirements of PP and mailing address submitted (for cross-verification to match with winners and remove duplicates as much as possible) but to your point this is a bit more intrusive.
 
I very much enjoy your current system. Seniority gives some advantages, but the door is open for new "fans" too. The random draw is equal for everyone - it does not favor those with a lot of free time (like first come first serve sales though instagram) nor those with a lot of cash (like auctions) so all in all fair and gives everyone interested a chance to try your work. Keep it up is my thought.
 
I think your system works and is very fair.

Sure there are people who complain and would prefer to have the chance to be the fastest person to click. But those very same people will complain that bots bought the knife if they don't get it.

Keep up the good work - in both being as fair as you can be to your fan base and creating fantastic knives.
 
Thanks for clarifying how the available knife draw works. I wasn’t sure if it was on the point system as well. I’m not interested in the knife you listed today, but thought about entering just to get another point in the system, but worried I’d get picked then would be down to zero. Glad it doesn’t work that way.
 
I think it is an excellent and balanced system, the best one I know of.

Raffles involve spending money and probably getting nothing for it.

Rugby scrum drops favor people with particular skills, or worse, scripts. Often they also require an Instagram account, which I do not have and do not want.

I don't know how to fix the "having my friend sign up" problem. I would love to think that our hobby's ethics are better than that, but I'm sure that's naïve. No system is fraud-proof. In your position, I would try to keep an eye on quick resales of your knives, but I don't know exactly what I would do with that information.
 
I come mostly from the pocket knife world. Where the communities are larger, demand is higher and production is frequently lower. First come first serve is a nightmare, as a consumer. It only benefits the person who has the fastest internet, and the greatest amount of free time to monitor when a drop is going live. Frequently, those are scalpers who just end up flipping the piece due to its scarcity.

I personally think the raffle system is best. Even if out of 100 people, 50 are duplicated or triplicated accounts, I’ll still take 1:100 odds over having to stress over every post a maker makes to jump on a knife before it’s gone.

For customs, I think a mix of a raffle system for the standard boring customs some folks want, along with doing special knives that catch your interest and ignite your passion either from your own ideas or from specific custom requests works best, for the same reason.
 
As I said before in the other thread I’m a big fan. I can see where people can find flaws (and they are not wrong) but as you said there will always be point of failure and even the largest companies have trouble plugging all the holes (or have completely given up).

But, for a single man operation and compared to other lottery systems I, personally, really like this system as it gives seniors some preference for custom slots. And everyone the same chance for the regular drops (which I also appreciate how often and frequently these come around)

Keep up the fantastic work!

Edits suggestion, maybe make a pool for the paid KKF members 🤣🤣🤣🤣
 
I think Milan’s system is the most fair of the various makers I follow. Many makers do a raffle, but I’m not aware of any with a custom waitlist raffle, never mind with increasing odds.

I might argue for higher maximum odds for those waiting longest for a custom slot, but that's a judgement call.
 
Not a complaint but I would love to know the total points in a raffle so I could know my odds. If I have 6 points and there were 450 people with a collective 2000 points my odds are 6/2000 for the first draw and slightly better for 2nd and 3rd. Maybe I’m the only one who really likes to know the odds…
 
@milangravier - not that I could ever be this lucky, but if one was to win a random draw how would that affect their points in the custom line? Or would it have none bc they are considered separate?
Not sure I get your question properly.
The two lists I got are separated totally : one is for custom orders (with point system), one is for available knives (same chance for everyone).
For customs, when someone is picked, he will start next time with 0 points so no chance to be picked, then 4 months later he will have 1 point.
For available knives, if you're picked you will have same chance to be picked again next time, so you can possibly be picked multiple times successively if you're super lucky
 
Not a complaint but I would love to know the total points in a raffle so I could know my odds. If I have 6 points and there were 450 people with a collective 2000 points my odds are 6/2000 for the first draw and slightly better for 2nd and 3rd. Maybe I’m the only one who really likes to know the odds…
I may give the odds and info next time. It's not really easy because I did not make the program so I don't know exactly how everything is calculated. But if I am not wrong : one point = one appearance in the draw ; 5 points = 5 appearance in the draw ; that's why people who got 5 points have 5 times more chance (I am not really good on those stats so I may be wrong) to be picked than people who have 1 points.

I have make the addition of points in the last draw : 452 peoples, 1255 points distributed.
 
Thanks all, I am glad the system I have set is meaningful for you too. Did not think so much people appreciate it, so very glad I have set something that works and seems fair to you. I am making all that for you in the end, so everybody can be picked whoever, whereever, etc.

Thanks for all the advises.
@cleanfil what is PP ? thanks for the advises, I will have a look at google forms if it can be interesting.
@Heckel7302 : available knives random draw indeed don't work with points at all. You subscribe to the draw if you want to buy the knife, that's it. Chances will be same for everyone for all draws.
@Rangen : I don't look at flipers... don't want to be a total control freak. I do all that be then, when the knife is bought by someone, he is free to do whatever he wants.. I mean I don't agree if he just buy to sell double price a week after but it's no more my job to check that.
@Delat : I have started to reserved one slot each time for the people who got maximum points, I do a random draw with only the people who have the max points, this time was 6 points.
 
Not sure I get your question properly.
The two lists I got are separated totally : one is for custom orders (with point system), one is for available knives (same chance for everyone).
For customs, when someone is picked, he will start next time with 0 points so no chance to be picked, then 4 months later he will have 1 point.
For available knives, if you're picked you will have same chance to be picked again next time, so you can possibly be picked multiple times successively if you're super lucky
Ok yes that answers my question. The two systems are entirely separate
 
Thanks all, I am glad the system I have set is meaningful for you too. Did not think so much people appreciate it, so very glad I have set something that works and seems fair to you. I am making all that for you in the end, so everybody can be picked whoever, whereever, etc.

Thanks for all the advises.
@cleanfil what is PP ? thanks for the advises, I will have a look at google forms if it can be interesting.
@Heckel7302 : available knives random draw indeed don't work with points at all. You subscribe to the draw if you want to buy the knife, that's it. Chances will be same for everyone for all draws.
@Rangen : I don't look at flipers... don't want to be a total control freak. I do all that be then, when the knife is bought by someone, he is free to do whatever he wants.. I mean I don't agree if he just buy to sell double price a week after but it's no more my job to check that.
@Delat : I have started to reserved one slot each time for the people who got maximum points, I do a random draw with only the people who have the max points, this time was 6 points.
Ah! there's a pool for the long long waited guys, I love your method more! 🙌
 
never mind with increasing odds.
But that's the thing your odds aren't increasing, they are actually still decreasing with every draw. Let's say the first draw had 50 participants and 6 people got picked. You had a chance of 12,6% to get drawn. It depends how many new people join. 50 people join in the next draw and the draw is 50-50, your odds were at 8,2%. Over time it will get lower and lower.
My solution would be something like 2 places get drawn for the people with 4-6 points, 2 get drawn for the people with 1-3 points and the last 2 places all people are in the pool with their different odds. So you guarantee that not all 6 people only have 1 or 2 points, even if odds are low for that to happen. Might be unnecessary hard to implement though.
Regarding the second account I don't really know a solution. I sit out when I'm not interested. I'm sure quite some people don't and have second accounts.
Still overall I like your system and it's definitely better than a lot of other people do
 
My solution would be something like 2 places get drawn for the people with 4-6 points, 2 get drawn for the people with 1-3 points and the last 2 places all people are in the pool with their different odds. So you guarantee that not all 6 people only have 1 or 2 points, even if odds are low for that to happen. Might be unnecessary hard to implement

I love this idea!!! I think it is actually more fair because it gives.everyone a chance but those who have been waiting longer more of a chance (which I think is not fair) granted… it is a bit harder to implement as it sounds like Milan doesn’t have perfect control/visibility of the system?
 
Thanks all, I am glad the system I have set is meaningful for you too. Did not think so much people appreciate it, so very glad I have set something that works and seems fair to you. I am making all that for you in the end, so everybody can be picked whoever, whereever, etc.

Thanks for all the advises.
@cleanfil what is PP ? thanks for the advises, I will have a look at google forms if it can be interesting.
@Heckel7302 : available knives random draw indeed don't work with points at all. You subscribe to the draw if you want to buy the knife, that's it. Chances will be same for everyone for all draws.
@Rangen : I don't look at flipers... don't want to be a total control freak. I do all that be then, when the knife is bought by someone, he is free to do whatever he wants.. I mean I don't agree if he just buy to sell double price a week after but it's no more my job to check that.
@Delat : I have started to reserved one slot each time for the people who got maximum points, I do a random draw with only the people who have the max points, this time was 6 points.
Apologies - PP = PayPal, sometimes not the most preferred due to fees but can be arranged as Friends and Family potentially before hand (mybeercollectibles .com does this in the US as a example.

It does provide email to payment method verification as you can only add up to 5 aliases to a PayPal account.
 
Apologies - PP = PayPal, sometimes not the most preferred due to fees but can be arranged as Friends and Family potentially before hand (mybeercollectibles .com does this in the US as a example.

It does provide email to payment method verification as you can only add up to 5 aliases to a PayPal account.
And I ll just be honest here - I often will ask a maker if they accept PayPal friends and family just cause my wife can't see it :)
 
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