Well here we are in Paris once again, but with a twist... all pundits and journalists are now contractually obliged to describe the draw as 'blown wide open' by the absence for the first time in 18 years of Rafael Nadal. Which of course is true. We saw last year that if Rafa goes to Roland Garros then Rafa wins Roland Garros, even if he can't walk, and the same would've been the case this year too. What it also means is that Novak Djokovic is now pretty much a racing certainty to finish with the most Slams, but will he take the lead by next Sunday?
Probably not. There are a handful of players on the tour that you would now fancy to beat NJ on clay at Masters level, all of whom are still in the draw; Ruud, Rune, maybe Tsitsipas, and certainly Alacaraz.
On paper, and balance of talent, the tournament looks like Alcaraz's to lose, though Holger Rune might have something to say about that, because Alcaraz's game isn't necessarily suited to clay to the extent that some people make out. He doesn't have the type of weaponry that makes Rafa effectively unplayable in Paris; he hits the ball harder and flatter, without the brutal follow through and topspin that Nadal generates. His game is more like a combination of Federer's and Djokovic's, than it is Nadal's.
But there's a massive elephant in the room if we're trying to argue for a first-time champion at Roland Garros this year. And that's because this
isn't a Masters level competition, it's a Grand Slam, and it's five sets. Fed-Nad-Djok were the best players of their generation, probably of all time, but they were on occasion beaten in a best of three by others. They were almost never beaten in five. At some point in a five set game NJ will hit a level that his opponent simply cannot keep up with, and whether they can ride that storm without crumbling mentally will determine whether anyone can beat him Paris this coming week.
Nevertheless I would put Alcaraz/Tsitsipas as marginal favourites in the semi against Djokovic, but if they fail to stop him then he should have the edge on Ruud, evens on Rune.
What does the rest of the KKF Tennis community (i.e.
@ian) reckon...?
