Sounds like the completely engineered/manipulated diamond trade and the De Beers Cartel business model. No shortage of diamonds but severe control of their release manages to keep prices artificially astronomically high. And we as buyers are enablers and keep this model viable. Rolex are perpetuating a similar throttling of supply. The common feature of all these businesses is that they are privately owned or Charitable Trusts so can do what they like without having to answer to shareholders and play the long game.
And what makes less sense are the massive price increases in the last couple of years when these stones have already been mined and are sitting in sheds gathering Jnat dust. The expense of getting them out of the mountain has already been expended and all that is required is cutting and polishing. Probably the least expensive part of the operation.
Certainly some truth in this, but there is also some more to it. Unlike diamonds, which are still commercially mined at scale, the only awasedo mine I'm aware of operating as a full time commercial enterprise is Maruo. The vast majority of the sites have been closed for decades at this point. To reopen the mining sites the rights holders would need to comply with all the modern safety and environmental standards that come with shaft mining. Additionally at many mines new veins would have to be sought out. In many, if not most cases, regulation makes it financially unfeasible or even legally impossible to start mining again.
So while there are healthy stockpiles of certain types of stones, most of these stocks are managed with the understanding that it is a finite resource. In most instances, these families, miners, and businesses involved in selling natural stones view them as part of the cultural heritage of the region and an integral part of many crafts ranging from sword polishing to temple restoration. In many ways, the prices we see are reflective of an intent to stretch remaining inventory for future generations. Of course, it is frustrating that it's all just sitting there and prices keeping trending up, but the reasons for it are a bit more complex than generic corporate greed.
And Jnats have always been expensive.. Especially the big suita and high grade nakayama. I've bought type 24 suita that had layers of moth eaten price stickers with even the oldest ones being well over 100k JPY which would equate to 300k+ today based on inflation. 3-500k is roughly in line with what one should expect to pay for a high grade type 24 suita or full size Nakayama kiita these days. If you're able to get to Japan and visit the shops you can still sort through the koppa bins and find incredible stuff for very reasonable prices, but there isn't an established way for those smaller, yet quality, stones to leave Japan as retailers won't help potential buyers pick them. This is also totally understandable as most of these shops are one man (or woman) shows and testing and photographing that many koppa only to sell them for modest sums makes no sense.
It's like a lot of hobbies since covid happened. People with money and free time started buying up anything and everything at exorbitant prices. Happened on here, with stones, pocket knives, watches....cars...
This is also the case. In what is a very small market to start with, a few hundred extra enthusiasts can create supply crunches really quickly. It certainly has made things in the JNat market feel worse over the last few years.
People keep saying how rare some stones are (ahem ohira suitas) but they keep popping up.
Ohira Suita aren't really that rare at all. Sword grade Ohira uchigumori on the other hand... almost impossible to find. Finding a really exceptional jito these days is next to impossible, I've been trying for almost a year. Japanese togishi rightly get first dibs and demand is sufficient there to make it pretty challenging to acquire a piece.
The really rare stuff isn't usually the big brands though. Stones from Ashi, Shinden, Hideri (suita), Sango, Hakka, Takao, and many others are truly rare. These are the stones that even a high volume collector might only come across once or twice.