Preparing for COVID-19

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Much more important, buy knives, hoard them, we might be facing the zombie apocalypse or something.

guys, this is a valid reason to buy more knives!
 
At this juncture I'm not doing much in the way of preparation. So far, the disease appears to have a relatively minimal foothold in North America. If it behaves like most other coronaviruses the advent of hot weather (only a couple months away) should substantially damp down transmission, and I'm far from the likely US hotspots on the coasts.
An interesting question to me is if it can get enough of a foothold in the Southern Hemisphere to seasonally bounce back and forth between hemispheres. If I was in Australia I'd be far more worried than I am here in the USA.

I am also curious to see how this will affect the future of the EU?
 
We have few cases in my suburb. There’s a rumor that my kids spring break will be extended for an extra week. Food wise we’re good for at least 3-4 weeks. The fear and panic in our area is definitely growing.
 
lowercasebill said:
I spent the morning on the phone and internet... There is not an antimicrobial hand wipe available in the U.S.
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I have a huge bottle of denatured alcohol / methylated spirits at home for knife making purposes. It's cheap, and makes for a very good disinfectant once diluted with a bit of water (it's 95% ethanol in Australia). Apparently it just evaporates off the skin too quickly if higher than 70% concentration.

LostHighway said:
If it behaves like most other coronaviruses the advent of hot weather (only a couple months away) should substantially damp down transmission
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As I understand, that's just because people tend to group closer together in colder weather.
 
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Once i recover enough from the flu (tomorrow) i am heading out in search of everclear. I do have a gallon of a quat based disinfectant that i can use to make my own.
I do have canisters of wipes but they are not convenient to use outside the house
 
Kippington said:
As I understand, that's just because people tend to group closer together in colder weather.
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Certainly that is part of the picture but I believe aerosol droplets don't remain suspended in air for as long in warmer and more humid conditions. Of course, that doesn't alter transmission from surface contact. I harbor no illusions that hot weather will magically make it go away.
 
lowercasebill said:
Once i recover enough from the flu (tomorrow) i am heading out in search of everclear. I do have a gallon of a quat based disinfectant that i can use to make my own.
I do have canisters of wipes but they are not convenient to use outside the house
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This reminds me I have a quart of moonshine somewhere at home a roofer gave to me a couple of years ago. I may finally have a use for it!
 
Two words for you: toilet paper. Lots and lots of toilet paper....

I cleared out the remaining stock in my three closest supermarkets. I could barely get it through the front door. I now guard my hoard day and night... sitting on the porch... shotgun on the lap
 
New study out of China showing case fatality rate of 1.4% for covid19. This is a bit lower than previously reported 2.3%. Editorial in NEJM posits that the case fatality ratio is actually closer to seasonal flu.
 
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lowercasebill said:
Once i recover enough from the flu (tomorrow) i am heading out in search of everclear. I do have a gallon of a quat based disinfectant that i can use to make my own.
I do have canisters of wipes but they are not convenient to use outside the house
Click to expand...

i think regular hand santizer is 70-85% ethanol and the rest glycerin to prevent you skin from cracking from repeated exposure.

i have a commercial one here. it says 68% ethanol, 13% propanol-2-ol which turns out to be https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isopropyl_alcohol maybe the rest is water or glycerine. i dont know.
thats the secret recepie.
 
You don't have to autoclave your hands to keep them clean! Hand sanitiser is fine but unnecessary if you have access to a sink. Soap and a good lather is very effective.
 
inferno said:
i think regular hand santizer is 70-85% ethanol and the rest glycerin to prevent you skin from cracking from repeated exposure.

i have a commercial one here. it says 68% ethanol, 13% propanol-2-ol which turns out to be https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isopropyl_alcohol maybe the rest is water or glycerine. i dont know.
thats the secret recepie.
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Sanitizers are around that range because any higher and it won't be effective. Pure ethanol is too volatile, and it'll evaporate too quickly if it's pure.
 
ModRQC said:
Even a full blown med isn't an authority unless specialized in micro-organisms. Not that anyone else is neither. And the specialist is concerned with a lot of data that is ultimately unusable in practice, for a very tiny part that might be, in any specific case. Then again, coronaviruses of the SARS or MERS lineage are still very obscure, ill-known. They are still under scrutiny to this day, and the available data is sparse and difficult to confirm in real life scenario.
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I never claimed to be a specialist :)
My "recommendations" if you will are what we recommend based on guidelines of our medical department and the Dutch ministry of health.
And yes the virus can survive up to 9 days, but like everyone said already this is VERY dependant on the surface. Post and mail will not carry it for 9 days. Something like a cellphone that is always warm might be able to hold it for a few days. My point was that we shouldn't be panicking about touching anything and everything, but that doesn't mean you should be licking door knobs.
 
Luftmensch said:
You don't have to autoclave your hands to keep them clean! Hand sanitiser is fine but unnecessary if you have access to a sink. Soap and a good lather is very effective.
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I don't know about where you live, but around here they bought all the sinks from the stores. And the eBay reseller prices are through the roof.
 
Midsummer said:
New study out of China showing case fatality rate of 1.4% for covid19. This is a bit lower than previously reported 2.3%. Editorial in NEJM posits that the case fatality ratio is actually closer to seasonal flu.
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Im not paranoid but im guessing if a cruise boat had a bad run of the seasonl flu that you wouldnt have had as many deaths as the one in Japan. That said, im sure there could be other variables...guessing current cruise off SF will give us a better idea...
 
Most of the previous virus pandemics had a quite varying mortality rates over the world - the 'Spanish flu' would be an extreme example (just check the Wikipedia article). So I would not try judge the seriousness of the disease on the precision after the coma. Seasonal flu is around 0.1%, give or take (again, local and temporal fluctuations).
 
Luftmensch said:
Two words for you: toilet paper. Lots and lots of toilet paper....

I cleared out the remaining stock in my three closest supermarkets. I could barely get it through the front door. I now guard my hoard day and night... sitting on the porch... shotgun on the lap
Click to expand...
Always handy when **** hits the fan
 
WildBoar said:
I don't know about where you live, but around here they bought all the sinks from the stores. And the eBay reseller prices are through the roof.
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Damn :(

.... I stocked up on everything but the kitchen sink....
 
Hand sanitisers are good, but not quite as good as soap. The reason is that soap removes the film of fat that is normally on the surface of the skin (which is where any viruses will lodge).

Washing hands with soap is slightly more effective than using hand sanitiser, if only by a little.
 
lowercasebill said:
WHO diy sanitizer.
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:cool:

Michi said:
The reason is that soap removes the film of fat that is normally on the surface of the skin (which is where any viruses will lodge).
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... and people tend to scrub their hands better at the sink. That vigour is better for removing the dirt and oils/fats that pathogens can hide in...


[edit: changed the video link to a better "Yeeeaaah!"]
 
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chinacats said:
Im not paranoid but im guessing if a cruise boat had a bad run of the seasonl flu that you wouldnt have had as many deaths as the one in Japan. That said, im sure there could be other variables...guessing current cruise off SF will give us a better idea...
Click to expand...

Imagine you have an old man who lives next door to young family. They all get the virus. The kids may not ever even appear to be sick. The parents perhaps a little runny nose. Only the old man gets very sick. He dies. Because of the novelty of the virus and the rarity of the kits for testing; You only test the really sick. So you have one case and one death. Your case fatality ratio is 100%.

The Ship held a lot of vulnerable people (older population) and for that population the case fatality rate is very high. But when we talk about case fatality rates we are talking generally about the rate observed in a large diverse population (unless a subpopulation is identified). Seasonal flu will have a higher death rate than 0.1% when it goes through a nursing home.

Once we have the capacity to test broad populations and not test just the sick and their contacts we will have a better handle on the true case fatality rate. Of course if you have a nursing home, the high case fatality rate within the elderly population would have you concerned.

This virus was not described before 12/19. In other words, it was not known to exist before this time. How do you test for a tiny viral particle that is very similar to other benign viral particles (average coronavirus) and be sure you identify it in all cases but also do not mistake it for a common coronavirus? Oh yea, you have to have the test available to every human who wants one. And it has to be manufactured, distributed and available today. You don't.

Initially some very expensive and limited capacity technology was used for the first tests. These limited tests (only a certain number of labs can run this technology at this time) were used only on the most critical. As you begin the manufacturing process, with a simplified technology, and distribute these commercial kits; then you begin to test anybody who shows up with a snotty nose. Once there is an understanding of the total number of cases we see the true case fatality rate.
 
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