Covid: the shape of things to come

[MarcelNL]

The issue with internet is not a lack of information but the difficulty to verify the validity of 'sources', in the good old days I read all volumes of the Encyclopedia Brittanica cover to cover, in todays environment I'd want some confirmation on the validity of sources too....

 

[MarcelNL]

It basically looks like in countries where for one reason or another population doesn't trust the government vaccination levels are low. This doesn't take into consideration the highly vaccinated countries where governments have such control over the population that they can force vaccinations. So you need either totalitarian government or populations that believe in their government. When dealing with a pandemic totalitarian governments are the best, of course this has some other problems, but if all you wanted was the most effective way of dealing with a pandemic full government control is the best.

In the US the culture is to challenge the government and to keep it in check. Not ideal during a pandemic, but not surprising that people don't want to blindly follow what the government is saying. It doesn't help that politicians have been caught lying or misinforming in the last 50 years and in general have shown that they care more about staying in power than about their constituents.

I'm not so sure that totalitarian regimens do much better overall, but they are able to control things like a pandemic for a while really good...

No government is geared to control pandemics, that is one problem, I for one do not believe that handling a pandemic is something that is the responsibility of any government...WE are as much part of society as our government, it's just too easy to distance ourselves from our environment and make our government or health care system the problem owner.

(edited for an omission)
I'm pretty sure that the people in Italy or Portugal do not have loads more faith in their government (f.e. try to get a phone line installed in your house in those countries) , but the people saw close up what happened and learned a lesson and took it to heart.

 

[LostHighway]

This, I believe is the crux of the divide in the US today. It appears that there’s a deeply held belief that some of us are being treated unfairly and that the country is turning into something that no longer fits into what some people think it should be. What will come of this is yet to be seen for sure. My fear is that it’s being driven by anger and fear and could certainly become violent at some point. There are people pushing that narrative so it’s a possibility. I find it a bit strange that the resentment and anger for the so called elite has turned into the denial of science. One can only hope that we can somehow work past this but time will tell.

I think the sense that the US has largely ceased to function effectively for the many as opposed to the few is not unfounded. This is not a partisan position as there is more than enough blame to go around. The old slogan (60s?) "If you're not angry you're not paying attention" is IMO more relevant now then whenever it was created. The problem is that unless people follow the minutia of policy, and to some extent even if they do, it is difficult to identify the causes or clear villains. The sense that somehow things would be fine if only the state would leave them alone is fairly widespread, however arguable that position may be. The state and some vague notion of science as an arm of the state have joined the other nativist boogeymen.

I really don't understand what gets people out in the streets in Northern Europe and perhaps Oz to protest travel limitations, masking requirements, vaccine passports, etc. From a parochial American perspective these populations look comparatively well served by their governments, high taxes not withstanding. I grant that as in the US small businesses may not be as well taken care of as larger economic constituencies.

 

[Barmoley]

I'm not so sure that totalitarian regimens do much better overall, but they are able to control things like a pandemic for a while really good...

No government is geared to control pandemics, that is one problem, I for one do not believe that handling a pandemic is something that is the responsibility of any government...WE are as much part of society as our government, it's just too easy to distance ourselves from our environment and make our government or health care system the problem owner.

I'm pretty sure that the people in Italy or Portugal have loads more faith in their government (f.e. try to get a phone line installed in your house in those countries) , but the people saw close up what happened and learned a lesson and took it to heart.

I didn't say totalitarian governments do better overall. I said they can control pandemics better. I also agree with the retoric that we are all part of the problem and should, as part of the society, do our part. The notion of the responsible populous that always does what is right for the society on an individual level is beautiful and absolutely contrary to reality and human nature.

 

[Keith Sinclair]

that
Know keep bringing up Singapore. Some would call it totalitarian, actually it was a rough
Asian sea port with many different nationalities & languages. Lee Kuan Yee came to power with a healthy dose of Confucius ideals. It works.

 

[user 16756]

From a parochial American perspective these populations look comparatively well served by their governments, high taxes not withstanding.

the way those European tax structures work is less straightforward but in the end their taxes are not actually that high, they're just a lot less hidden/delayed than in the US.

in the end you WILL pay. the question is how and what will you get back for it. the overall tax receipts of the US gov and the component states are very high but yet we seem to get nothing for them as regular citizens. some people believe this means taxes are "low" just because they pay a lower income tax rate. but you know what tax is actually low in the US? the only one that's actually really, genuinely low with no down-the-road capture? capital gains.

 

[gregfisk]

the way those European tax structures work is less straightforward but in the end their taxes are not actually that high, they're just a lot less hidden/delayed than in the US.

in the end you WILL pay. the question is how and what will you get back for it. the overall tax receipts of the US gov and the component states are very high but yet we seem to get nothing for them as regular citizens. some people believe this means taxes are "low" just because they pay a lower income tax rate. but you know what tax is actually low in the US? the only one that's actually really, genuinely low with no down-the-road capture? capital gains.

I think you are right about this and the reality I believe is we probably don’t really pay less to be part of society, we just pay it in different ways. I’m not complaining but the downside of our system is that you can have a medical situation come up that will literally bankrupt you in a very short amount of time. That’s something I would like to see change as would many others in this country. I hope I’m not getting too political here for the mods, I hope not.

 

[Keith Sinclair]

Last bulge was Delta, just wait until Omikron gets around real good...any day now, no need to hold your breath for too long....the spike is likely going up steeper than ever before

December 19 you posted this just one week cases have spiked big time. New Years Eve is huge here January cases will keep rising.

 

[ian]

in the good old days I read all volumes of the Encyclopedia Brittanica cover to cover

Dude.

 

[MarcelNL]

December 19 you posted this just one week cases have spiked big time. New Years Eve is huge here January cases will keep rising.

France just hit the 100.000 new infections PER DAY mark for the first time in the pandemic and numbers and increases in Spain and Italy look similar, SOMETHING is ongoing....if the hospitalization rate stays at a manageable level society will suffer from high numbers of people staying home but that is far better than flooded hospitals and mass graves being dug. So far there are some reports that suddenly kids are more prone to be hospitalized, it's probably too early to see a clear outline of where this wave is leading us.

 

[outofgamut]

So far there are some reports that suddenly kids are more prone to be hospitalized

Do you remember where that information came from? That's of interest to me and I'd like to learn more about it.

 

[MarcelNL]

Do you remember where that information came from? That's of interest to me and I'd like to learn more about it.

I do, the issue is that it's in Dutch (Belgium)...the report is not very detailed and comes down to an unexpected group of kids admitted to hospital with COVID, no serious complaints, more like the RS virus. The report mentioned two hospitals in Belgium both with sudden 'groups' of kids admitted to hospital, another report mentioned same in New York

https://health.ny.gov/press/releases/2021/2021-12-24_health_advisory.htm

 

[Keith Sinclair]

Just checked Hawaii graph it is similar to one posted a week ago December here has been dramatic. Most cases Oahu by far.
March got two Moderna shots
June 2021 brother came had to show vaccine card to enter & airport temp. test. Tourist were
Pouring in from mainland after being cooped up over a year. Cases were low 18 one day 7 day average 28.

Then Delta hit & governor told tourist not to come. When nephew came with his Russian bride on honeymoon much less tourist it was
nice. One day 446 seven day average 756. Most hospitalized not vaccinated. Some deaths.

Then dipped again December 3 one day 118
Seven day average 107.
December has been straight up Christmas day
1,568 over 1K a day this week a few deaths but not like before vaccines more deaths in 2020.

Of coarse count is much higher because many sick don't go to hospital. I'm sure it's same else where. Flights were getting canceled because too many staff sick.

 

[outofgamut]

Thanks, @MarcelNL

that is concerning. There's virtually no information in this NY health advisory but given how NYC (and the UK) were the first to report on PIMS-TS (MIS-C) given their high numbers I am taking this seriously.

We have seen very little severe Covid issues in children here in Australia. If that should have changed with Omikron that'd be v concerning.

It's sad because I was just coming around to the thinking that we're slowly getting onto the path that probably coronaviruses before have taken: increased infectivity but reduced severity (based on preliminary reports quoting about 1/5 of patients req hosp admission compared to Delta.

I do, the issue is that it's in Dutch (Belgium)...the report is not very detailed and comes down to an unexpected group of kids admitted to hospital with COVID, no serious complaints, more like the RS virus. The report mentioned two hospitals in Belgium both with sudden 'groups' of kids admitted to hospital, another report mentioned same in New York

https://health.ny.gov/press/releases/2021/2021-12-24_health_advisory.htm

 

[MarcelNL]

@outofgamut ; Taking this signal serious is good, IMO it's too early to draw any conclusions yet...it COULD simply be the numbers...if Omikron is infecting children as fast or even faster (likely given the nature of interaction between kids) that alone might be causing an increase in hospitalizations. The peaks in new infections seen in some countries are about double as high as previously. Looking at the infections reported and deaths reported IMO does not show any conclusive trends...in some countries deaths now slowly rise, where in other countries with a serious spike in new infections death rates remain the same (or do not rise yet).

 

[CA_cook]

so you say... how do you feel about that statement now? now when we have the omicron variant which i saw in my magical crystal ball.

to be honest i never had a crystal ball. i just read MEDICINE when i was 15-16 years old! and this is about the most basic ****ing **** there is those books!!! how this works has been knows for about 100 years now. just so you know!

i guess that could be interpreted as some crystal ball mojo for r3tarded people but i dont know to be honest. if thats fair.

so lets sum it up: 120 people in an oslo restaurant gets infceted. ALL of them are double vaxxed. AND tested before they go to the "julebord" christmas dinner.

here is the article but it has been updated to 120 now. translate with google translate.
https://www.nrk.no/osloogviken/omikron-smitte-i-oslo-etter-julebord-1.15754329text of interest:
– Det er noe vi har sett generelt i det siste. At veldig mange fullvaksinerte blir smittet, og smitter videre, sier medisinskfaglig ansvarlig for smittesporingsteamet i Oslo vest, Jorun Thaulow.

it says: this is something that we have seen in general lately. that very many people, fully vaccinated, get infected, and spread the disease to others, says the olso vest medical head honcho. Jorun Thaulow.

(i used to live in norway so i know the lingo quite well)

-------------------------------

in denmark we have 1840 infected with omicron. (its in english too!!)
https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-11122021-uy12
and 74% is double vaxxed. 14% unvaxxed. and 9.5% triple vaxxed and 2.2% 1vaxxed.
and this is kinda funny. because there is about 20% unvaxxed in denmark. so now the vaxxed are getting infected MORE than unvaxxed!

GEE, WHO WOULD HAVE ****ING GUESSED IT COULD TURN OUT LIKE THIS??

hate to be the one to say "i fukn told you so", but i guess i did actually tell you so. and not a single fukn crystal ball was used in the process.
common sense people... common sense. and as we all know its not that common anymore.

la la laaa,
la la la la laaa

Dude, instead of gloating, go get your booster shot. You didn't understand the science then and you still don't understand it now. Be safe and happy upcoming New Year.

 

[Gordinho]

When a society allows education to become a luxury of those able to pay for it (sooner or later) then critical thinking naturally declines and people become prey to one liners and superficial discussions leading to life threatening decisions.

It is, somehow interesting, that all the science deniers become very welcoming to science and medicine when on ICUs...

 

[chiffonodd]

When a society allows education to become a luxury of those able to pay for it (sooner or later) then critical thinking naturally declines and people become prey to one liners and superficial discussions leading to life threatening decisions.

It is, somehow interesting, that all the science deniers become very welcoming to science and medicine when on ICUs...

I don't know if that's the issue. Plenty of deniers in my town and K-12 education is free for all. Actually it's free for all everywhere. So...

 

[user 16756]

I don't know if that's the issue. Plenty of deniers in my town and K-12 education is free for all. Actually it's free for all everywhere. So...

k-12 is babysitting not education in the US.

 

[chefwp]

k-12 is babysitting not education in the US.

That varies wildly, which is tragic for kids unlucky to come of age in an under-served area. Education should be the great equalizer in our supposedly merit-based capitalist society, but poor neighborhoods get very poor education and wealthy suburbs get what their taxes pay for. It is not fair, and it is also not as simple as I laid it out, there are some problems even money alone can't solve.

 

[user 16756]

That varies wildly, which is tragic for kids unlucky to come of age in an under-served area. Education should be the great equalizer in our supposedly merit-based capitalist society, but poor neighborhoods get very poor education and wealthy suburbs get what their taxes pay for. It is not fair, and it is also not as simple as I laid it out, there are some problems even money alone can't solve.

I mean you are absolutely, 100% right. In fact, you happen to live in the state with one of the absolute worst state to local funding ratios and as such the outcomes from PA vary wildly, with your wealthy suburbs having some of the best schools in the country and then Philadelphia having been systematically and intentionally ruined. As part of a job I had many, many years ago working in early childhood education I actually visited some Philly schools and if I could put the people responsible in jail I'd strongly consider it.

But Im gonna stand firm on this. The cultural point of public education in the US is not to educate, but to give parents childcare such that they can work. And that's why so often it's workforce commissions or whatever your state calls them that is running early childcare stuff.

By and large teachers are there to teach and to make a difference. Administrators are usually people who wanted to be politicians but weren't smart/attractive enough. The occasional EDD or PhD who really knows what theyre doing is an increasingly rare phenomena. DOEs are staffed by a mix but the people who rise to the top are again wannabe politicians or even worse the dogs of actual politicians. And you have a huge a MASSIVE industry of "ed tech", testing companies, enforcement, textbooks, etc. who exist simply to grift off the government. And then you have the fact that schools have become a proxy war for political arguments for the parents now.

In there, where is wanting to educate kids? It's really only the teachers as a group IMO.

In that job I went from being cynical about public education to HATING the system. Funny enough the same thing happened when I worked with healthcare. Working in tech for the last half decade has been a wonderful respite.

 

[Keith Sinclair]

I'm sure many here got a basic education K-12
Public schools.

 

[gregfisk]

That varies wildly, which is tragic for kids unlucky to come of age in an under-served area. Education should be the great equalizer in our supposedly merit-based capitalist society, but poor neighborhoods get very poor education and wealthy suburbs get what their taxes pay for. It is not fair, and it is also not as simple as I laid it out, there are some problems even money alone can't solve.

I think this sums it up nicely. I believe it is totally dependent on where you were educated. Where I live and grew up in the Seattle area education is very good. My daughter also got a good education and had no problem getting into a good college. Of course this varies from school district to school district as well. I do believe however that the US is behind several other countries in the way it educates its children. I have seen a lot of kids who don’t seem to have learned much and are going to have a tough time being productive in society.

 

[chefwp]

But Im gonna stand firm on this. The cultural point of public education in the US is not to educate, but to give parents childcare such that they can work. And that's why so often it's workforce commissions or whatever your state calls them that is running early childcare stuff.

I neither 100% agree nor disagree with this. I have a feeling that results again vary on place, money, culture, and the prevailing political winds, whether local or larger. I will say that I can 100% understand why you believe that. It was the issue that came up most frequently in the previous 2 school years as education shifted to cyber learning in kids' homes. I had my own strong opinion, and I will admit that it was very influenced by both my wife's and my ability to transition to work-from-home, and because of that privilege I didn't harshly judge the families that were passionately against schools going cyber because it was incompatible with their jobs and ergo incompatible with their financial security in uncertain times. Historically public education was a response to a need for minimally educated workforce that would fulfill the needs of a nation entering its industrial phase, and not childcare. But times have changed, women used to be homemakers and caregivers primarily back when that all went down, and this is no longer true. Parents that both work 100% look forward to their kids finally going to school full time as daycare can be as burdensome, financially, as a mortgage.

I do find it interesting that in all the things you mention above, you largely leave out parents and culture and the role they play in educational outcomes. But I am not surprised because it is so often overlooked by 'experts' and has been repeatedly for decades. It shouldn't be, educational outcomes are very influenced by how parents and their culture places value (or not) on education, how they model it, and how they communicate to their children about it indirectly and directly. I'm remembering the story of when Chicago's school system was given a mandate to solve the huge problem of illiteracy and actually given ample funding to make it happen. They tried many things, training teachers, spending more $ per student on making schools better in general, upping salaries to attract better talent, and many other things. All these initiatives did not move the needle on the problem of illiteracy, all the things they changed did not seem to correlate to better literacy outcomes. Finally they did find that the biggest predictor of literacy or illiteracy, the thing that had the strongest correlation if you will, was the number of books in a child's home. In other words, if parents valued literacy and books, it was the single biggest factor in whether or not a child would learn how to read. Sadly, this is not something that is easily fixable by politicians, school systems, its admin, or its teachers.

 

[user 16756]

I neither 100% agree nor disagree with this. I have a feeling that results again vary on place, money, culture, and the prevailing political winds, whether local or larger. I will say that I can 100% understand why you believe that. It was the issue that came up most frequently in the previous 2 school years as education shifted to cyber learning in kids' homes. I had my own strong opinion, and I will admit that it was very influenced by both my wife's and my ability to transition to work-from-home, and because of that privilege I didn't harshly judge the families that were passionately against schools going cyber because it was incompatible with their jobs and ergo incompatible with their financial security in uncertain times. Historically public education was a response to a need for minimally educated workforce that would fulfill the needs of a nation entering its industrial phase, and not childcare. But times have changed, women used to be homemakers and caregivers primarily back when that all went down, and this is no longer true.

I do find it interesting that in all the things you mention above, you largely leave out parents and culture and the role they play in educational outcomes. But I am not surprised because it is so often overlooked by 'experts' and has been repeatedly for decades. It shouldn't be, educational outcomes are very influenced by how parents and their culture places value (or not) on education, how they model it, and how they communicate to their children about it indirectly and directly. I'm remembering the story of when Chicago's school system was given a mandate to solve the huge problem of illiteracy and actually given ample funding to make it happen. They tried many things, training teachers, spending more $ per student on making schools better in general, upping salaries to attract better talent, and many other things. All these initiatives did not move the needle on the problem of illiteracy, all the things they changed did not seem to correlate to better literacy outcomes. Finally they did find that the biggest predictor of literacy or illiteracy, the thing that had the strongest correlation if you will, was the number of books in a child's home. In other words, if parents valued literacy and books, it was the single biggest factor in whether or not a child would learn how to read. Sadly, this is not something that is easily fixable by politicians, school systems, its admin, or its teachers.

I mean I feel like Ive already laid out the huge problems I have with culture in the US.

also I think you will acknowledge that such discussions take away from the thing that actually matters, which is the systemic issues. I will be glad to address the personal role of parents once the system itself has been righted. until then, completely uninterested. in the same way that Im uninterested in discussing turning off the lights or recycling re climate change, etc.

btw books in the home is probably proxying for socio-economic status as much as maternal education. it has been known for at least 30 years at this point that SES is probably an even stronger predictor of educational outcome than maternal education. so I dont think you can say that parents valuing books is the single biggest factor. if it is the biggest factor, it's not by much. FWIW my father did his post-doc on this subject in the 90s and by then it was already pretty well established and I know in econometrics they had already more or less decided that income mobility was a straight up fantasy by the time I got to my own graduate schooling.

 

[chefwp]

I mean I feel like Ive already laid out the huge problems I have with culture in the US.

Well, thanks for replying, I am not overly familiar with what you may have laid out in the past, so I appreciate the thoughtful reply. You definitely make some excellent points and I will absolutely acknowledge that fixing the systemic failures in the US is long overdue.

btw books in the home is probably proxying for socio-economic status as much as maternal education

^^^^this, yes, I was guilty of oversimplifying it a bit, good catch.

 

[Barmoley]

It is easy and popular to blame education and pretend that covid deniers or antivaxxers are just uneducated individuals. The reality is more complicated. The problem seems to be more wide spread and the issue seems to be too much information and inability to determine which sources are more valid than others. It used to be that experts were trusted somewhat blindly. If a doctor told the patient something, in most cases, the patient would listen. These days due to glut of easily accessible information many people think they are experts and it is actually difficult to determine which experts truly know what they are talking about. We are also more aware of all the "mistakes" the experts make which additionally undermines their trustworthiness. For example, CDC changed quarantine requirement from 10 days to 7 for healthcare workers to 5 days for everyone two weeks later. Now, former surgeon general criticizes CDC for shortening the quarantine period and current CDC director admits that they shortened the period to what they thought the people would be able to tolerate. The percentage of omicron cases was also drastically changed, so it is even less known how many people with omicron were hospitalized. At the time when experts are fighting other experts what should the nonexperts do?

As far as family values and culture being very important in education results, I very much believe it, being a product of such circumstances and seeing many examples of this in my surroundings. All anecdotal, you understand, but undoubtfully true in my small sample of people that only share the same culture and similar family values. The US is a melting pot of many cultures, and many different value systems, so to speak of it as a homogeneous, single culture would be a mistake. There are many issues with the education system that need to be fixed, but attitudes toward covid can't be explained by just education.

 

[MarcelNL]

I personally do not see experts discussing amongst peers as arguing or disagreeing/fighting, usually there are different view points. The whole science around this pandemic is not that black and white and the countermeasures are found in a largish gray zone where an optimum needs to found between tolerability and effectivity.

 

[Keith Sinclair]

The old food pyramid & attack on fat was gospel. It took more research to realize being sold a bill of goods. That and sizable lobby from sugar industry.

 

[user 16756]

As far as family values and culture being very important in education results, I very much believe it, being a product of such circumstances and seeing many examples of this in my surroundings. All anecdotal, you understand, but undoubtfully true in my small sample of people that only share the same culture and similar family values.

ok let's say I agree that the amount that caretakers value education and overall culture is important to educational outcomes. where do you rank them against:

1. socio-economic status
2. maternal and paternal educational achievement (not valuation, actual achievement)
3. access to high quality childcare locally, either an educated grandparent or facilities
4. quality of education (e.g. children in Massachusetts receive a far better public education than those in Texas just out of pure luck, and very wealthy kids are sent to private schools)
5. development disabilities
6. random life occurrences (e.g. I had a friend in highschool who was in all the same AP classes as me but his mom died and he didnt graduate on time and it derailed his life for a decade)

The old food pyramid & attack on fat was gospel. It took more research to realize being sold a bill of goods. That and sizable lobby from sugar industry.

this is exactly why publicly funded research, transparency in that funding, and free access to scientific publications that are funded by public grants should be the rule and not the exception.

it is also worth noting there is a difference between what is actually being found and the decisions that get made based on it. we can all agree here that the CDC shortening the quarantining requirements has nothing to do with any COVID research. it's just more evidence that under the thin, thin veneer of society it's just a huge machine and the current admin, just like the last, really just doesnt care if you die as long as you keep working.