Shig alert

Japanese Knives - by Tokushu Knife
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tcmx3 said:
I assure you that the second you start to say things like "can only go up" you will be proven wrong.

The SP500 is strong, high end products are riding high as a result. Were that to crash, all this imaginary value in illiquid assets is gonna get a serious shock just like last time. I collected books before 2008 that market still hasnt 100% recovered.
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Not sure where I wrote "can only go up". Both you and I are just making opinions, considering this is a global hobby with global customers. I was in this hobby in 2008 and had issues getting Shigs, the same as now. I lived in Guam then, close to Japan, so I relied on the internet. Like I wrote before, we shall see.
 
Twigg said:
Don't worry, our brilliant leaders will inflate our way out of it.
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no offense but you might want to check your facts before saying stuff like that:
1607130763710.png


2% inflation is usually the target, and without some inflation the economy can't stay at full employment.

no amount of QE has succeed in inflating the dollar to any significant effect lately.

not politics. fact.
 
AFKitchenknivesguy said:
Not sure where I wrote "can only go up". Both you and I are just making opinions, considering this is a global hobby with global customers. I was in this hobby in 2008 and had issues getting Shigs, the same as now. I lived in Guam then, close to Japan, so I relied on the internet. Like I wrote before, we shall see.
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indicated in yellow

1607130854557.png
 
tcmx3 said:
no offense but you might want to check your facts before saying stuff like that:
View attachment 105223

2% inflation is usually the target, and without some inflation the economy can't stay at full employment.

no amount of QE has succeed in inflating the dollar to any significant effect lately.

not politics. fact.
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QE has nothing to do with it. It is a simple matter of owing USD and being the sole authority that can print USD. Remember, its not pegged to anything and is only based on the faith in the US.
 
Twigg said:
QE has nothing to do with it. It is a simple matter of owing USD and being the sole authority that can print USD. Remember, its not pegged to anything and is only based on the faith in the US.
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they must have forgotten to mention that in grad school.

glad to know it's just a simple matter and that I can safely ignore the econometric evidence.
 
tcmx3 said:
they must have forgotten to mention that in grad school.

glad to know it's just a simple matter and that I can safely ignore the econometric evidence.
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Actually, I did learn it in grad school. You are conflating fiscal policy principals with the statement I made regarding inflating out of debt.
 
It is the asset price that has been inflating. Look at the stock market. Fed committed to a 2% annual inflation rate (for goods and services), but it barely intervened when the stock market is too hot. Instead, it committed to save the market when there is a risk. Even house price has been going up in many areas.

And a weakening dollar is making other countries’ US debt worth less.
 
Twigg said:
Actually, I did learn it in grad school. You are conflating fiscal policy principals with the statement I made regarding inflating out of debt.
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oh mate, Im so sorry.

Im sure you think you got me, but you might want to go review your textbooks because QE is monetary policy, not fiscal policy. if you did learn "it" in grad school, you might be a few years too many removed.

anyway Im out I presented the actual inflation values people are free to believe them or Twigg idc.
 
CiderBear said:
Oh no, I clicked on the thread for Shig alerts and saw mentions of QE and econometric.
Must. escape. Must. not. let. life. leak. into. hobby.
🖐
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LOL, Im out too. Can you guys and gals let me know when there is a shig 240 Kasumi.
 
Jville said:
LOL, Im out too. Can you guys and gals let me know when there is a shig 240 Kasumi.
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They'll sure let you know when they've bought it instead. Start an "Anti-Shig" Shig alert thread and ask THESE guys to put an eye out for you, is just as much a process bound to fail than asking this in this very thread. :p
 
ModRQC said:
They'll sure let you know when they've bought it instead. Start an "Anti-Shig" Shig alert thread and ask THESE guys to put an eye out for you, is just as much a process bound to fail than asking this in this very thread. :p
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Haha, I was just messing around. But I mean... it's kind of... like a shig... thread. You can only really count on the guys who already have enough to let you know.
 
AFKitchenknivesguy said:
Is it a lot? Yeah, especially for people like me that have been in the hobby for a long time. When I started, Shig was in demand (always has been), and this particular knife could be bought for a couple hundred US dollars. Time, demand, inflation, etc. are what leads us to today. I never thought it would get this high either, what about 10, 20 years from now?
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I have a feeling his sons are going to keep the brand alive.
 
Jville said:
Haha, I was just messing around. But I mean... it's kind of... like a shig... thread. You can only really count on the guys who already have enough to let you know.
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True statement. If you are looking for a 240mm kitaeji gyuto, gonna have to wait till I get mine. After that, set your notify flags to my posts.
 
Corradobrit1 said:
And if prices keep going up at the rate we're seeing now, they may retire early.....
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Not necessarily so - I am flagging a potential cultural assumption here. While I don't want to mythologise Japanese craftsmanship, if you listen to interviews of these blacksmiths (I have Tsukasa in mind), they talk about perfecting their skills and striving for excellence. Money is surely one aspect of their life... but not necessarily the reason they continue to be a blacksmith well beyond western retirement age (and in a very physical job). Suffice to say... their views on retirement might be different.


Southpaw said:
most of the leg work is done by the two sons nowadays.
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This is my understanding.

Southpaw said:
I think once Mr Iizuka passes the kitaeji will become one of the rarest knives out there. I’m glad I’m lucky enough to have gotten a petty when I did (and wasn’t completely gouged either)
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I disagree. Shigefusa is already post Tokifusa. Let me qualify that.

"Shigefusa" is basically the name of the forge. A brand if you will. Established by Tokifusa Iizuka with the two sons Masayuki Iizuka and Yoshihide Iizuka apprenticing and learning the family trade. By now the sons are just as much a part of Shigefusa as Tokifusa-san.

As noted above, there is reasonable speculation (internet chat) that the sons are now doing the bulk of the work. You could turn that around and ask "just how much has Tokifusa done in the past few years?". I am not trying to diminish Tokifusa-san. The point is, if you enjoy Shigefusa for what it is, you should expect no difference from Masayuki and Yoshihide. Kitaeji included.

But also keep in mind, Shigefusa produces for Kiya. It is said this is how Shigefusa got famous. Kiya is a large retailer and would expect continuity in their product lines (within reason for handmade knives). Producing consistent output is already one of Shigefusa's competencies (regardless of who made the knife... father or sons).

nakiriknaifuwaifu said:
However, I think there will be a distinction among Izuka and Post-Izuka knives at all levels.
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Minor correction... Iizuka is the family name. Tokifusa is the father/founder.

Again, I disagree. Like I say, I think we are are already post-Tokifusa. There are older instances of Shigefusa knives out there. They share the same 'sugata' and spirit but you can see some evolution. There are ones that have different kanji sytles (same name). There is some older kitaeji out there that has fatter bands. It is also possible that their older kasumi knives had more distinct 'clouds' (I'll admit that this one is my own speculation).

If anybody really cares about Tokifusa and post-Tokifusa (and they shouldn't), they have already missed the boat. It has probably been years (a couple of decades???) since Tokifusa was the sole blacksmith. That has been a slow gradient with the sons no-doubt becoming an increasing component of the output.

Now... will there be a distinction between 'Tokifusa' and 'post-Tokifusa' knives? Probably... ;) but I think that will mostly be internet mythology. Those who know a lot about Shigefusa will know and wont care... and those who only know a little wont even know!


Southpaw said:
should/do you want Shigefusa kanji to change after Izuka’s passing?
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No? Why wouldnt the sons continue the brand?

Unless the sons have a argument over the business and split. Or perhaps they feel obliged into their fathers work and once he passes they'll put down the hammers and chase their real dreams?
 
Jville said:
Haha, I was just messing around. But I mean... it's kind of... like a shig... thread. You can only really count on the guys who already have enough to let you know.
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Didn’t mean to be harsh sorry if I was. Just messing too. You can indeed count on some to let... everyone... know. 😊
 
Twigg said:
QE has nothing to do with it. It is a simple matter of owing USD and being the sole authority that can print USD. Remember, its not pegged to anything and is only based on the faith in the US.
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inflation is tied to the faith in the dollar? Hmmm....

What you mean - I think - is the general idea of how a Fiat currency works. It’s the same for Bitcoin btw, and even Gold. Gold has almost no industrial value, it only has value because we people say it does.

the USD at least is backed by the ability of the government to tax its citizens.

QE does not necessarily lead to inflation, that is true. It’s like saying making a fire in your backyard will lead to large scale forest Fires.

QE, the money in circulation ... that all CAN increase inflation, but I doesn’t have to. Japan has been trying for decades to increase inflation and it has failed.

Deflation is the much bigger evil and anyone who thinks we can’t have deflation as a result of this pandemic has absolutely no understanding of economics. Yes, it’s not a given we get deflation, but it’s a very real chance.

no one talks about that in non economic circles because most regular people don’t understand deflation and it’s risks. They think: prices go down, good for me.

inflation is easy to understand and scary if you break it down: “I can’t buy a loaf of bread for the money I could have gotten a Shig for 3 months ago. I will be poor.”

In a nutshell.
 
ModRQC said:
Didn’t mean to be harsh sorry if I was. Just messing too. You can indeed count on some to let... everyone... know. 😊
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Yeah, no worries. I knew you were joking.
 
alterwisser said:
inflation is tied to the faith in the dollar? Hmmm....

What you mean - I think - is the general idea of how a Fiat currency works. It’s the same for Bitcoin btw, and even Gold. Gold has almost no industrial value, it only has value because we people say it does.

the USD at least is backed by the ability of the government to tax its citizens.

QE does not necessarily lead to inflation, that is true. It’s like saying making a fire in your backyard will lead to large scale forest Fires.

QE, the money in circulation ... that all CAN increase inflation, but I doesn’t have to. Japan has been trying for decades to increase inflation and it has failed.

Deflation is the much bigger evil and anyone who thinks we can’t have deflation as a result of this pandemic has absolutely no understanding of economics. Yes, it’s not a given we get deflation, but it’s a very real chance.

no one talks about that in non economic circles because most regular people don’t understand deflation and it’s risks. They think: prices go down, good for me.

inflation is easy to understand and scary if you break it down: “I can’t buy a loaf of bread for the money I could have gotten a Shig for 3 months ago. I will be poor.”

In a nutshell.
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I guess I wasn't being clear enough last night. The dollar is backed by faith in the US government. If the government decides to print enough money to pay off its debts, this will trigger a lot of inflation. It would dwarf the effects of any prior QE actions. The US has the unique position (currently) of having its denomination as the world's top currency. This would be a catastrophic economic event, but it could happen.

I do not see where I wrote inflation is tied to faith though. That wouldn't make any sense.

Also, @tcmx was correct, I should have used the term monetary policy instead of fiscal policy.
 
AFKitchenknivesguy said:
True statement. If you are looking for a 240mm kitaeji gyuto, gonna have to wait till I get mine. After that, set your notify flags to my posts.
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Yesterday there was a 270 Kitaeji Gyuto for sale on JNS and a 210 Kasumi. I have the 270 Kitaeji from when they were on sale at JNS 2-3 weeks ago, so I got a kiridashi instead. Really “needed” that😂😂😂
 
Ummm...supply<demand = rising prices = inflationary pressure. Let’s see some contradict that! Let’s forget about deflation for bit

QE and fiscal policy both affect spending ability directly and indirectly, through consumer or capital markets.

either through monetary effects -banks offer more liquidity due to low interest rates or on the fiscal side govt spending on projects to drive wages to drive spending to boost demand that affects prices!

Ha! Full circle

And yes, I did I learn “it” in grad school - but memory is hazy due to excessive focus on Shigs😂😂😂
 
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