Covid: the shape of things to come

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I knew it, our resident bench virologist has better insight in the data.
perhaps this helps to shed some light;
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/hea...ronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-fluFlu: The World Health Organization estimates that 290,000 to 650,000 people die of flu-related causes every year worldwide.

I don't think that the folks >65 like to hear being dismissed as less significant.

BTW the numbers are about death OVERAGE, which means deaths due to things that are not regular events, such as the flu (against which we're vaccinating target groups for decades now).
 
MarcelNL said:
I knew it, our resident bench virologist has better insight in the data.
perhaps this helps to shed some light;
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/hea...ronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-fluFlu: The World Health Organization estimates that 290,000 to 650,000 people die of flu-related causes every year worldwide.

I don't think that the folks >65 like to hear being dismissed as less significant.

BTW the numbers are about death OVERAGE, which means deaths due to things that are not regular events, such as the flu (against which we're vaccinating target groups for decades now).
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Marcel you're missing the point, which is that your source's figures arent massively pixelated and unreadable and that just doesnt work for Eric.
 
Keep in mind the average recovery rate world wide is around 99.7%

The overwhelming majority of people being highly affected by the virus are 65 years of age and older

As a result it makes no sense for non-high risk populations to continually put themselves at risk for a vaccine that kinda works at best but



Results: Among 23 122 522 Nordic residents (81% vaccinated by study end; 50.2% female), 1077 incident myocarditis events and 1149 incident pericarditis events were identified. Within the 28-day period, for males and females 12 years or older combined who received a homologous schedule, the second dose was associated with higher risk of myocarditis, with adjusted IRRs of 1.75 (95% CI, 1.43-2.14) for BNT162b2 and 6.57 (95% CI, 4.64-9.28) for mRNA-1273. Among males 16 to 24 years of age, adjusted IRRs were 5.31 (95% CI, 3.68-7.68) for a second dose of BNT162b2 and 13.83 (95% CI, 8.08-23.68) for a second dose of mRNA-1273, and numbers of excess events were 5.55 (95% CI, 3.70-7.39) events per 100 000 vaccinees after the second dose of BNT162b2 and 18.39 (9.05-27.72) events per 100 000 vaccinees after the second dose of mRNA-1273. Estimates for pericarditis were similar.

Conclusions and relevance: Results of this large cohort study indicated that both first and second doses of mRNA vaccines were associated with increased risk of myocarditis and pericarditis. For individuals receiving 2 doses of the same vaccine, risk of myocarditis was highest among young males (aged 16-24 years) after the second dose. These findings are compatible with between 4 and 7 excess events in 28 days per 100 000 vaccinees after BNT162b2, and between 9 and 28 excess events per 100 000 vaccinees after mRNA-1273. This risk should be balanced against the benefits of protecting against severe COVID-19 disease.


https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35442390/
7A398EFB-B315-4B8C-9A5C-3D83EBB446ED.jpeg
 
MarcelNL said:
sorry for the oversight! is this better?


View attachment 178133
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As much fun as it is to pick on Eric, the CNN article is of very low quality and you guys would rip it apart if it happened to say the opposite.

I also believe that covid deaths have been under reported in many countries, such as India for example. It just doesn't make sense that some countries reported very low deaths compared to the US and western Europe. Undoubtfully, some variations exist and can be explained, but I haven't seen anything that would explain huge differences between some countries. Looking at extra deaths is a valid measure if done correctly, but the article doesn't really show this and coming from CNN, I wouldn't trust it too much.

Fair is fair and if you choose to be very critical of sources that challenge your views you should probably be as critical to the sources that support them.
 
I also think that the gist of the WHO report is true. Specifically that covid deaths around the world are undercounted.

The CNN report is just sensationalist and I think you would criticize it if it said the opposite.

WHO acknowledges that it is missing data from a very significant portion of the world for both reported covid deaths and deaths as a whole, so their estimates for the world must be extrapolations based on the countries they have data for plus some assumptions. Given this, the numbers quoted in the CNN report are of very low quality. I agree that absolute numbers can't exist and we don't really know how WHO arrived at the numbers CNN reported, so we are left with just trusting that WHO numbers are at least close to reality. Given how the whole pandemic and reporting on it went from the beginning I can understand why many people are skeptical.
 
It's absolutely hysterical that any older person would engage in the "but what about the kids?" conversation.

my whole life I've seen you all do that but 100% of the time it's been about you, not us. there are like 3 ongoing political meltdowns that are ongoing and in every case it's the same way. you aren't getting exactly what you want so you use the kids as a cover story.

millenials and zoomers are sacrificing the best years of our lives to try and protect you all and you pay us back by refusing to wear a mask and by peddling absolute insanity inbetween minions memes on facebook.

Barmoley said:
As much fun as it is to pick on Eric, the CNN article is of very low quality and you guys would rip it apart if it happened to say the opposite.

I also believe that covid deaths have been under reported in many countries, such as India for example. It just doesn't make sense that some countries reported very low deaths compared to the US and western Europe. Undoubtfully, some variations exist and can be explained, but I haven't seen anything that would explain huge differences between some countries. Looking at extra deaths is a valid measure if done correctly, but the article doesn't really show this and coming from CNN, I wouldn't trust it too much.

Fair is fair and if you choose to be very critical of sources that challenge your views you should probably be as critical to the sources that support them.
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please give an outline as to why you feel the article very low quality.

"I dont like the source" and "it doesn't agree with what I think" are not acceptable answers.

you keep saying they're low quality, can you provide how you would impute those missing values and why you think this is a more valid approach?
 
like it's fine to question the WHO's statistical methodology, if you can point to specific deficiencies in it.

or are you actually suggesting that the absence of data is enough to call it "low quality" because that's... just wrong frankly. every real world data set has issues. most in developing countries are missing large portions of data.

in the real world that some folks are so keen to talk about, data cleaning, imputation, outlier exclusion etc. are part of EVERY serious statistical effort.
 
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tcmx3 said:
It's absolutely hysterical that any older person would engage in the "but what about the kids?" conversation.

my whole life I've seen you all do that but 100% of the time it's been about you, not us. there are like 3 ongoing political meltdowns that are ongoing and in every case it's the same way. you aren't getting exactly what you want so you use the kids as a cover story.

millenials and zoomers are sacrificing the best years of our lives to try and protect you all and you pay us back by refusing to wear a mask and by peddling absolute insanity inbetween minions memes on facebook.



please give an outline as to why you feel the article very low quality.

"I dont like the source" and "it doesn't agree with what I think" are not acceptable answers.

you keep saying they're low quality, can you provide how you would impute those missing values and why you think this is a more valid approach?
Click to expand...

I am not sure what you are talking about. I don't know how old you think I am as well as why you are harping about age all the time. How is this relevant to the discussion? I don't disagree with the WHO accretion that covid deaths are under reported around the world. I am simply pointing out that that posted CNN report is not very good and trying to explain why someone can be sceptical of it. If the link to 30 page WHO overview was posted I wouldn't say anything.
 
Barmoley said:
I am not sure what you are talking about. I don't know how old you think I am as well as why you are harping about age all the time. How is this relevant to the discussion? I don't disagree with the WHO accretion that covid deaths are under reported around the world. I am simply pointing out that that posted CNN report is not very good and trying to explain why someone can be sceptical of it. If the link to 30 page WHO overview was posted I wouldn't say anything.
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?

the bit above your quote isnt directed at you.

and please provide something more concrete than "not very good". not very good how?

also still waiting on how the WHO numbers are not well methoded.
 
SARS, MERS, COVID 19 all coronavirus.

2002-2004 only 8,000 cases worldwide SARS came from China around 1,000 died. Not only that many survivors had permanent lung and other organ damage. Much to complex to explain here. SARS considered acute respiratory coronavirus. To put it simple virus tricks the defence system of body then replicates at alarming rate shutting down respiratory system. Unable to grab oxygen with breath. Vastly reduced oxygen in bloodstream can result in death.

MERS middle east respiratory came from Camels. Same as SARS hardly contagious but deadly.

I'm not the smartest here but not stupid either.
Early on covid19 long before vaccine saw interview with SARS survivor had lung & kidney damage.
I had one college coarse & ordered another wanted to know as much as I could because it was happening real time. Finished them both.
I knew internet full of agenda politics. News media biased. Put my faith in science not something pulled from internet.

IMG_20220505_192236868.jpg
 
MarcelNL said:
if anyone still thinks this is a mild cold;

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/05/health/covid-excess-mortality-who-data/index.html
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I heard a statistician participating in that work being interviewed on the radio. Interesting work. Apparently Australia & NZ had negative excess deaths due to the lockdowns!

On the other side of that; "living with Covid" has resulted in a surge of deaths in Australia. The first four months of 2022 saw double the number of deaths than in the previous two years.
 
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When mask mandate was lifted got careless with neighborhood kids. Didn't even notice if they had any symptoms. Even tho I'm 72 our covid was mild I'm sure because had two shots & booster. That and these highly contagious strains not as strong as early COVID-19 & Delta.
All those oxygen tanks in hospitals because people couldn't get enough on their own. The alveoli in their lungs over whelmed with virus.
 
tcmx3 said:
It's absolutely hysterical that any older person would engage in the "but what about the kids?" conversation.

my whole life I've seen you all do that but 100% of the time it's been about you, not us. there are like 3 ongoing political meltdowns that are ongoing and in every case it's the same way. you aren't getting exactly what you want so you use the kids as a cover story.

millenials and zoomers are sacrificing the best years of our lives to try and protect you all and you pay us back by refusing to wear a mask and by peddling absolute insanity inbetween minions memes on facebook.




please give an outline as to why you feel the article very low quality.

"I dont like the source" and "it doesn't agree with what I think" are not acceptable answers.

you keep saying they're low quality, can you provide how you would impute those missing values and why you think this is a more valid approach?
Click to expand...
 
I'm glad retired don't have to drive too much. Rather spend money on food than gasoline.

Hawaii has plan for 100% clean energy only reason Hawaii ahead per capa. is a lot of people put solar panels when had net metering.
Now need Tesla storage battery walls. Solar fell off. Hi. Electric made plan to help pay for batteries if they can draw power from them peak time 6pm-830pm. Thinking about it. We have H power burning waste, windmills, several solar farms. The biggest benefit to Hawaii electric is solar panels on roofs.

Electric cars I'll believe it when I see it. Hawaiians like Toyota Tundra's & Ford F-150's.
 
Just let your fellow Hawaiians do a 0-60 in ludicrous mode in a Tesla S, HIGHLY engaging I can tell you...never actually felt the blood in my brain pooling in the back of my head before, and I've driven some fast cars. The difference between an EV and a Truck is not that big since both are best driven in a straight line due to obesity anyway. ;-)


I'm on the fence with solar and EV's....for now even the absurdly high gas prices do not hurt that much unless I need to drive like 40Kkm a year, probably different when driving a gas guzzler V8.

So far our Covid rates go down, but flu etc is still pretty active as a side effect of the social distancing and lockdowns.
 
Keith Sinclair said:
I'm glad retired don't have to drive too much. Rather spend money on food than gasoline.

Hawaii has plan for 100% clean energy only reason Hawaii ahead per capa. is a lot of people put solar panels when had net metering.
Now need Tesla storage battery walls. Solar fell off. Hi. Electric made plan to help pay for batteries if they can draw power from them peak time 6pm-830pm. Thinking about it. We have H power burning waste, windmills, several solar farms. The biggest benefit to Hawaii electric is solar panels on roofs.

Electric cars I'll believe it when I see it. Hawaiians like Toyota Tundra's & Ford F-150's.
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Ford is selling every Lightning pickup truck they can build. Also the real car companies are starting to get good electric cars out (the new BMW is getting a LOT of positive press). We're close.

Out of curiosity, are Hawaiian pickup trucks all spotless like Texan pickup trucks? Around here they're all (and there are so, so many of them) spotless unless they're hooked up to a yardwork trailer.

Anyway got no sympathy for the gas price thing. We go through this every couple of years. The folks with <5 year old pickup trucks simply have too short a memory or enough money to not care. My car needs 91 octane and doesn't get amazing gas mileage (think Ive averaged 22.5 over the years Ive had, ofc my car also has >400 horsepower) but you don't hear me complaining about it. People can tell me all day how they "feel" they need an SUV/truck around here but I've seen the statistics on average occupancy 🤷‍♂️

Food prices though we should be doing something about that. Everybody's gotta eat.
 
which BMW do you refer to? My problem with all EVs I experienced so far is they are fun, until you hit that winding road, and it becomes clear you're drivind a lardass.

400hp is nice, my current car has 260 which is about a 100 down from the previous one but torque is quite similar (well so is top speed), gas mileage though is far better on the current car...
 
MarcelNL said:
which BMW do you refer to? My problem with all EVs I experienced so far is they are fun, until you hit that winding road, and it becomes clear you're drivind a lardass.

400hp is nice, my current car has 260 which is about a 100 down from the previous one but torque is quite similar (well so is top speed), gas mileage though is far better on the current car...
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https://www.bmwusa.com/vehicles/all-electric/i4/gran-coupe/electric-bmw-m.html
not cheap, though still a fair bit less than the current m4.

you are paying a 1200 lb weight penalty. on the other hand, it is down fairly low, and the distribution is pretty good. plus you get an actual functional car that doesn't try to reinvent every possible interface, is built well, has a good warranty, a real dealer network, etc.

a tiny percentage of people are interested in actual sports cars. those can stay ICE/hybrid for years. I dont see why commuter car owners could/should/would care how the car gets them from home to work, the grocery store, etc.
 
tcmx3 said:
Out of curiosity, are Hawaiian pickup trucks all spotless like Texan pickup trucks? Around here they're all (and there are so, so many of them) spotless unless they're hooked up to a yardwork trailer.
Click to expand...

Australia is probably quite similar to USA - 'a tale of two cities' when it comes to trucks and four wheel drives. Urban centers are full of spotless four wheel drives. I guess people like their room, high driving position and offensive bulk. In the past 10-20 years this segment of the market has been flooded with luxury vehicles. Their off-road credentials are questionable - they are really all-wheel drive vehicles.

On the other hand... leave the cities and you'll find these vehicles start to look appropriate. I was in Darwin 20 years ago. At the time it felt like a frontier town. The city center was well developed and had all the comforts of a modern city (albeit on a very small scale - you wouldn't really call it a country town). But you didn't have to drive far to be in undeveloped and rugged country. Four-wheel drives were abundant and they looked serious.... as in covered in dirt... two to three spare tyres... tools... jacks... shovels and recovery tracks.... The place was ruled by Toyotas.

'Pickup trucks' are somewhat of an institution in Australia. Our particular version are coupes with a tray at the rear. We call them 'utes' - as in utility vehicle. The term has generalised to include any light vehicle with a tray at the rear. This segment is also split between spotless cars and 'legitimate' users. The segment evolved to develop what were essentially overpowered luxury sports cars. A really strange mix... you'd never throw a bag of cement in the back lest you scratch your 'Duco' (paint job). Nor did the one-tonne suspension and little weight at the rear make for a great handling sports car.... Then again... it is a pretty useful body type for builders and farmers. The government recently let our car industry die. True; we made stupid cars... but I had a soft spot for them and took pride in the fact that we had manufacturing. I am not sure we will see these absurd (coupe) utes mass manufactured again...

You dont really see many F150 sized 'utes' in Australia (they do exist but they are uncommon). Our urban roads aren't really big enough. Navigating a F150 through the centre of some urban areas would be uncomfortably tight. That said, the Ford Ranger is fairly popular. Japanese cars are prevalent here - you see lots of 'utes' from Toyota, Nissan, Mazda, Isuzu and Mitsubishi. All these 'utes' are based around four-wheel drive chassis... rather than being muscular rear-wheel drive coupes with a utility tray.


Edit: .... oh yeah... and Aussies can shred... champions of burn outs. It is part of the driving test ;)
 
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I like the looks of Hyundai Kona electric. They can't get them built fast enough & are only available in certain states. Cool 😎folks who are taking vintage cars & converting to modern electrical systems.

Like I've said before battery tech. has to get better. Very cold conditions effects electric cars. Also very hot too if don't have good cooling for batteries. Actually Hawaii is good place for electrics. Have seen more Tesla's on the road.

I remember early days would see Hawaiians, Samoans etc. driving American full size cars because couldn't fit in Japanese compacts or VW beetles. Now they have Trucks & SUV. Yes the trucks can be beat up working vehicles, but many are spotless. Live close to Hawaiian homestead see polished up trucks out for weekend cruises with Hawaiian flags mounted on tailgates.
 
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