Covid: the shape of things to come

[Nemo]

oof, kinda just assume people are exposed to bayes' theorem in high school. I say that because not only was I but the kiddo I just put through hs had it and she was on normal track math.

and despite how one particularly irate person interprets where Im coming from, I actually dont assume anyone is stupid. what I do think is true though is the KKF demographic HEAVILY overlaps with people who havent been told 'no' very much in their lives. Ive said it before and I really believe this if I went into BoH and started telling people **** left and right even though I am not an expert on how restaurants runs they'd probably respond in the same way I do re statistics.

perhaps even more surprisingly, I dont view working in a quantitative field as being evidence that someone is "smart" anyway.

My experience is that most people forget how to use the parts of high school maths that they don't use on a regular basis. This includes many people that I know are smart people.

IME, much of calculus, algebra and probability falls in to this category.

 

[Nemo]

My experience is that most people forget how to use the parts of high school maths that they don't use on a regular basis. This includes many people that I know are smart people.

IME, much of calculus, algebra and probability falls in to this category.

Expanding specifically on the understanding of probability,

Peoples' ability to understand risk and to compare risks is in general very limited.

People will tolerate a familiar risk (e.g.: driving a car) without anxiety to a much much much greater extent than an unfamiliar risk (e.g.: undergoing a routine general anaesthetic).

 

[Luftmensch]

 

[Luftmensch]

oof, kinda just assume people are exposed to bayes' theorem in high school.

I wonder if it's standard material nowadays. I'm not sure I was ever taught that in high school, but who knows. I can barely remember high school.

Twenty/thirty years ago Australia had really good rankings in global mathematics comparisons. We have fallen a fair bit since. Now kids leave school barely understanding that the number eight is "that squiggly thing that looks like a snowman"...

When I graduated from school. Bayes was definitely not part of the state curriculum. We did basic stats but that was mostly frequentist stuff, product rule chaining and basic stats tests.

Heh, I just asked my wife what she makes of the pic you posted. She says: "There are lots of P's and A's and B's! There's a fraction on the right. On the left, I know you're supposed to do the stuff in the parentheses before you multiply by P, but I don't know what | means."

I guess she hasnt been properly conditioned!

Full disclosure: she was a poetry PhD, now a therapist. So not many formal calculations of probabilities in her life.

Eh... In her profession, its application is marginal.



Fun (stupid) fact... did you know you do not need to do any mathematics to graduate from year 12 in Australia?
It really irritates me that basic mathematics validation is not part of a high-school graduate certificate. There is a movement to change this. I dont think it has happened yet. For a long while, english has been the only mandatory subject. Students can fill the rest of their units with whatever they choose.

 

[Luftmensch]

I am fully vaccinated and got my booster shot as well. The results were: tinnitus, severe permanent nausea, thrombosis in the left leg and a pulmonary embolism. I nearly died. My chance to catching covid is the same (or worse) now as it was beeing unvaccinated. I'm really wondering, if I have done the right thing.

It is terrible you had adverse side effects from the vaccines. I too am sorry you had to go through that.

Either you have a predisposition to trusting medical technology or you do not. I am not sure we can convince you one way or another? If you are open to medicine being a thorough and valid process, then consider that the vaccine is a control exposure to the virus. If that does not make you uncomfortable... then consider what might have happened if you received a large, uncontrolled dose of the virus? Again; I am sorry for the illness the vaccines caused you... but perhaps that is evidence you would have a bad (worse) reaction to covid.

It might not feel like an 'emotional truth'... but you are not in a worse position having had the vaccines. You are in a better position. It was worth your trouble and you absolutely have done the right thing. I hope that by looking at mainstream analysis, you do gain confidence and comfort that your decision was justified.

And now: beer and potatoe chips and let the shitstorm brew over me

That is up to you.

There are a lot of well meaning people here who will have a generally level headed conversation if you approach the topic with civility. True; the large majority of people here appear to be advocates for medical science and accept the evidence that lockdowns, social distancing, masks and vaccines help combat the pandemic. I suppose that can be confronting if you have an opposing view.


You sound like you are in a grey zone where your personal experience has tainted your view of our medicine. I have a lot of sympathy for that position. If you can state your insecurities about why you should trust it, I am sure members can try and help give you confidence that you did make the right decision!!

 

[ian]

I guess she hasnt been properly conditioned!

Eh... In her profession, its application is marginal.

Omg you are on a roll today. That sentence about geodesics and unit balls and conformal mappings was amazing. Like one of those joke papers written by an AI, but with real human feeling. ❤

 

[daveb]

True; the large majority of people here appear to be advocates for medical science and accept the evidence that lockdowns, social distancing, masks and vaccines help combat the pandemic. I suppose that can be confronting if you have an opposing view.

I've given up on correcting them but do like to pop up frequently enough to remind them there are other views. Just cause Fauci is wrong more often than the weatherman, he's repeatedly lied to our congress and has gotten rich in the process of espousing fake science should not be reason to distrust him they tell me.

 

[ReiHamono]

First some good news followed by some rather disturbing news, hoping the bad news is incorrect

 

[user 16756]

Just cause Fauci is wrong more often than the weatherman, he's repeatedly lied to our congress and has gotten rich in the process of espousing fake science

do you have a source for that.

 

[daveb]

Direct observation. Primary research.

 

[user 16756]

Direct observation. Primary research.

so no?

I mean I will grant he's a public figure and doesnt participate here but you're making a serious allegation there incredibly casually.

is that the official KKF perspective on Anthony Fauci as well?

 

[daveb]

That little button in the middle of your mouse? It's waiting.

 

[MarcelNL]

It sounds like you just have an opinion, and of those there are plenty to go around, which is fine and all that but it does not make it true what you say.
Simply saying that something is 'fake' science is just too easy, and to me sounds like "I do not want to hear it'

 

[Luftmensch]

Like one of those joke papers written by an AI, but with real human feeling. ❤

My latest patch (df0cc57e057f18e44dac8e6c18aba47ab53202f8) allows me to simulate empathy

 

[ReiHamono]

“Data published by the NSW government’s COVID-19 Critical Intelligence Unit has revealed that as of Jan. 9, 68.9 percent of COVID-19 patients aged 12 and over in hospitals had two doses of the vaccine, with 28.8 percent unvaccinated.

The number of double-dose vaccinated patients in intensive care units (ICUs) also surpassed those of the unvaccinated, with 50.3 percent of the vaccinated presenting to ICU with COVID-19, more than the 49.1 percent who are unvaccinated.“


https://aci.health.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/critical-intelligence-unit/monitor

 

[ReiHamono]

This is really getting out of hand

 

[Michi]

“Data published by the NSW government’s COVID-19 Critical Intelligence Unit has revealed that as of Jan. 9, 68.9 percent of COVID-19 patients aged 12 and over in hospitals had two doses of the vaccine, with 28.8 percent unvaccinated.

Yes. That should not come as a surprise, seeing that there are more than ten times the number of vaccinated people than unvaccinated ones. That's 588 unvaccinated people vs 1400 vaccinated ones in hospitals. Meaning that the < 10% of vaccinated people take up 42 % of the beds.

One has to actually understand what these numbers mean and think about them, though. Which may be a challenge for some people.

Here is a graph that shows what this really means:

Vaccinated people take 14% of ICU beds. Unvaccinated people take 86% of ICU beds, despite there being 9 vaccinated persons for each unvaccinated one. That means an unvaccinated person is about 77 times more likely to end up in ICU than a vaccinated person.

Those beds are not available for people who have some life-threatening condition that isn't related to Covid. But, of course, unvaccinated people are totally entitled to take up about 70 times more ICU beds than necessary.

 

[MarcelNL]

[Cynical mode on] It HAS to be true, I have had an epiphany last night....My GF and I got the booster last week and now, suddenly our youngest son became sick and tested positive....the booster must have rubbed off on him. [Cynical mode off]

Our infection numbers are also on their way to a high orbit, hospitalizations keep going down for now (likely an after effect from the delta wave).
The good news is that our lockdown was eased yesterday, Universities, all shops and sport facilities re-open today, but restaurants, bars, theaters, museums etc stay closed for now.
Most surprising to me was that quarantine rules were lifted for those boostered at least a week ago (now THAT comes in quite handy for us), also in order to keep society functioning but also due to a different course of this variant.

 

[Michi]

This is really getting out of hand

What exactly is it that is getting out of hand?

That DrLoeser and Incogito1117 are well-known vaccine deniers and right-wing conspiracy theorists?

 

[Michi]

Our infection numbers are also on their way to a high orbit, hospitalizations keep going down for now (likely an after effect from the delta wave).
The good news is that our lockdown was eased yesterday,

Glad to hear it! Unfortunately, the wave keeps on rolling here for the time being. We have been posting >100,000 infections per day for quite a while now. In terms of per-capita infections, we must be pretty close to being world-record holders now

Fortunately, hospitalisations and fatalities are still low, except for the < 10% of unvaccinated people who take up 90% of Covid ICU beds. It's their right, remember?

 

[MarcelNL]

The unverified stuff on twitter is probably getting out of hand...

 

[Nemo]

Meaning that the < 10% of vaccinated people take up 42 % of the beds.

Vaccinated people take 14% of ICU beds. Unvaccinated people take 86% of ICU beds, despite there being 9 vaccinated persons for each unvaccinated one. That means an unvaccinated person is about 77 times more likely to end up in ICU than a vaccinated person.

NSW double vaccination rates in 16+ are actually over 95%. I can't find hospitalisation data stratified by age but I'd be pretty surprised if 12-15s (who are at 82% double vaccinated) made up a very large portion of those in ICU or even of those in hospital. So it's probably more like 5% of people taking up those beds.

 

[Michi]

Pressure on hospitals has led to cancellation of most elective surgery here because too many beds are taken by Covid cases. "Elective" surgery can mean a lot of things, but is not particularly elective for some people.

I know of one woman whose double mastectomy was postponed. She chose to have the procedure performed because there is a big family history of breast cancer. It's just too bad that she developed breast cancer while she was waiting for a bed that is currently occupied by a (most likely unvaccinated) Covid patient.

It seems that a lot of the "pro choice" people are choosing on someone else's behalf…

 

[MarcelNL]

Even though it's a devilishly difficult decision to make, I support having a discussion in politics about a Quotum for unvaccinated ICU patients to create a more healthy balance. Probably not of any help anytime soon as that discussion is likely to take more than the 3 years(if that) left for this administration.

Elective surgery only means it's no emergency, but wait long enough and many cases become emergent...our healthcare system currently has a backlog of approx 300.000 hours of surgery, I haven't heard any recent predictions how and when they plan to cut through that case load (pun intended).

 

[Michi]

Steven Colbert presents some great suggestions for how to deal with the situation.

 

[ReiHamono]

The vaccinations are not working if they don’t make you immune to the disease it’s supposed to be keeping you safe from

High majority of deaths are the vaccinated

 

[ReiHamono]

Also, just saw this.


“ The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is considering a change to its mask guidance as the omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus continues to circulate across the country, The Washington Post is reporting.

The CDC will probably advise people to use the N95 or KN85 mask instead of a cloth mask, the Post reported. The N95 masks are the type used by health care personnel.

“The agency is currently actively looking to update its recommendations for KN95 and N95 in light of omicron,” according to an unnamed official the Post identified as a source close to the negotiations. “We know these masks provide better filtration.”

While many people use a cloth mask to cover their nose and mouth when they are indoors, the CDC guidance is expected to say that if people can tolerate wearing a KN95 or N95 mask all day, they should.

The CDC’s current guidance says a mask should fit snugly, be made of at least two layers of breathable fabric and have a wire bridge around the nose that helps the wearer make a more snug fit.”

 

[chefwp]

The vaccinations are not working if they don’t make you immune to the disease it’s supposed to be keeping you safe from

High majority of deaths are the vaccinated

I'm calling bullsiht on the chart you posted, but here are the actual UK numbers from the UK's Office of Statisics, summarized on the chart below:

There has been some confusion about some of the statistics coming out of the UK and they have been misinterpreted and that misinformation propagated via social media, this is further explained here

 

[Keith Sinclair]

Virus are tiny you need powerful microscopes to see them. Their ability to mutate around our defenses can be a small change in one protein.
Covid is just one type of virus.

Aids is a virus a deadly one that reprograms bodies defense system changing T-cell from a protector to a attacker. Without powerful cocktails of drugs it's a death sentence.

Laughter + S = Slaughter

 

[MarcelNL]

Even Aids is now almost tamed, it took a while though...so far a few patients have been cured of it.

Let's hope we get a grip on Covid anytime soon....