Covid: the shape of things to come

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Let the data show the vaccine hesitant what they need to know
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Many of public school students in America come from middle- lower middle class families. Both parents working no one to take care of kids much less supervise virtual learning. It's the same situation here. In areas where both parents work & now with teachers not showing up because either sick or because of high Omicron case numbers including children. Classes with no teachers are moved to large areas like cafeterias. Also school lunches are subsidized. As tcmx3 mentioned
Public schools are baby sitting. They are and more.There is talk of closing public schools until this Omicron starts going down. That will
mean kids with no supervision.
 
UW Medicine has been a timely and accurate source of Covid information in the US since the beginning of this pandemic and so has NY, but from a different perspective. I have several friends who work in UW hospitals in Seattle and surrounding areas which I’ve mentioned before. If you look at the information just posted about these two cities and the information posted by Michi just prior in this thread, it’s extremely clear, to me anyway that getting vaccinated is the intelligent and the right thing to do. What my Dr, Nurse, Pharmacist friends have been telling me in the last couple of years lines up perfectly with these studies. Getting vaccinated gives you the best chance of surviving Covid with the least risk to your health. Why people post nonsense studies trying to get people to not vaccinate and raising doubt is something that I simply don’t understand. A healthy dose of skepticism when it comes to politicians telling you what to do is a good thing but when scientists who are professionals in their fields put out information that can save your life you should listen. When did not trusting your government turn into not trusting science?
 
Keith Sinclair said:
Many of public school students in America come from middle- lower middle class families. Both parents working no one to take care of kids much less supervise virtual learning. It's the same situation here. In areas where both parents work & now with teachers not showing up because either sick or because of high Omicron case numbers including children. Classes with no teachers are moved to large areas like cafeterias. Also school lunches are subsidized. As tcmx3 mentioned
Public schools are baby sitting. They are and more.There is talk of closing public schools until this Omicron starts going down. That will
mean kids with no supervision.
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yep.

and I simply do not believe people are saying this because they care about kids or the widening education gap. when I posited we could do any of the things we would do outside of the pandemic to do so first it was absolute crickets. same response when I point out that covid disproportionately affects folks other than those arguing to open things up or relax rules for their convenience or whatever.

I guess the question I have is do people know. is this some sort of subconscious lack of understanding or do people know the consequences of what theyre suggesting?

I just have too little insight into the minds of others to say myself
 
MarcelNL said:
the land of of the unlimited possibilities might want to rethink some things....
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It's hard. You have to remember that even though we talk of the US as one country, which it is, it is a huge and very diverse country. Even public schools as much as we like to criticize them are much better and sometimes excellent in better areas. In poor neighborhoods it is tough to get good teachers, there is very little parent support. In addition there are social and economic issue that don't exactly prioritize doing well in school. It is a problem that needs to be solved, but it is not a simple one. Just throwing money at it won't work. There was a period when they bussed kids from poorer areas to better schools in order to fix some of these issues. Unfortunately, this didn't work.
 
unbelievable it is, but the nonsense going around is unbelievable....just yesterday I spoke with that person who used to be ICU nurse in Europe I mentioned earlier. Now living in Tx. she needs to travel to Brazil for business for our project and she was letting me know she heard from a friend living there that the situation in Brazil is straight out crazy. Next thing was that she does not have a worry in the world as she is so healthy and had a mild case back in the early days of the pandemic.
Next she said that there may be issues getting in as she is not vaxxed but she will get a PCR and Antigen test and will see how she can get there. Initially I thought that Bolsonaro would not have made vaccination mandatory but he did...She true pearl was that she was warning me that over 80% of folks who got a booster were getting Covid and that natural immunity is so much better, . I just had to bite my lip
 
MarcelNL said:
over 80% of folks who got a booster were getting Covid
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weird. just today, some guy was telling me that a bunch of people he knows (or supposedly friends of friends or something?) that got the booster got covid soon after. i wonder if that's a coincidence or if something's driving that in the public mind. i'm not really tuned into social media.
 
I'd say that observation bias is more likely, and that the boosters are administered because we know the effectivity of the vaccines is decreasing and in a downward slope, the booster takes like 14 days to kick in while Omikron is on an incredibly steep upward slope.

I just got my booster a few days ago and it would not surprise me if I get Omikron before the booster is effective
 
chefwp said:
Let the data show the vaccine hesitant what they need to know
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Interesting....

The "Not fully vaccinated" data is subtle. I assume that mixes "no vaccination" together with "partial vaccination"?

Look back at the graphs @Michi posted. In the NSW data, partial vaccination has shown to be reasonably effective at preventing hospitalisation, ICU admittance and death. If you could similarly split the NY Times "not fully vaccinated category" into "partial vaccination" and "no vaccination", it is likely deaths per 100,000 would be higher for "no vaccination"...

... In other words... in the NY Times graphs, there is a good chance the "partially vaccinated" contribution to "Not fully vaccinated" is balancing out some of the poor performance of the "no vaccination" cohort. I guess the opposite is also true!


Maybe my logic is wrong...
 
You need to be very careful and find the definition for fully vaccinated, in some countries/graphs that means 2 vaccinations and in some it includes getting a booster!

What I'd like to see is a graph including data on with hospitalization and death for the folks who had a proven case of Covid (positive PCR followed by a negative PCR sometime later). I suspect 'natural immunity' does something but not anywhere near as reliable as the vaccination programs...
 
sansho said:
weird. just today, some guy was telling me that a bunch of people he knows (or supposedly friends of friends or something?) that got the booster got covid soon after. i wonder if that's a coincidence or if something's driving that in the public mind. i'm not really tuned into social media.
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Idk the timeline here, but if everyone gets boosters right before the Omicron wave, you’ll likely have a bunch of infections after being boosted. (Those infections probably will be less severe on average than if they hadn’t been boosted tho.) Also, yea, observational bias.
 
Barmoley said:
It is a problem that needs to be solved, but it is not a simple one. Just throwing money at it won't work. There was a period when they bussed kids from poorer areas to better schools in order to fix some of these issues. Unfortunately, this didn't work.
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You might find this article/situation interesting:

https://www.theatlantic.com/educati...egregation-baton-rouge-public-schools/589381/
"A pattern has emerged over the past two decades: White, wealthy communities have been separating from their city’s school districts to form their own. According to a recent report from EdBuild, a nonprofit focused on public-school funding, 73 communities have split to form their own school districts since 2000, and the rate of places doing so has rapidly accelerated in the past two years. St. George, which activists seek to incorporate as a city, is a textbook example.

Oftentimes, in these instances, predominantly white parents are trying to break away from a majority-minority school district, which in turn isolates their property-tax dollars in a new district. (Many public schools rely heavily on property taxes.) The argument, then, is that the parents can better dictate how their money is being spent.

St. George is no different. The proposed area is more than 70 percent white and less than 15 percent black, while East Baton Rouge Parish is roughly 46.5 percent black. St. George supporters decry the violence and poor conditions of the public schools in Baton Rouge. Their tax dollars, they have argued, aren’t being put to good use. (Representatives for the St. George campaign’s organizers did not respond to multiple requests for comment for this article, including several emails, phone calls, and Facebook and LinkedIn messages.)

...

For decades, Baton Rouge’s schools operated under a desegregation order, imposed in 1956 after the Brown v. Board of Education ruling. That order meant, in theory, that the integration of the city’s schools was being closely monitored. But in 2003, a federal judge lifted the order; at the time, it was the longest-standing such order in the country. When the order was lifted, the school district was 75 percent black; now it is 81 percent black, and 89 percent minority overall—due in no small part to the three communities that have separated from East Baton Rouge Parish since."

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/article_5765ff08-6344-11ec-a188-eb54b244cf86.html
All of our institutions seem to be crumbling - political, educational, social, etc...
 
Barmoley said:
There was a period when they bussed kids from poorer areas to better schools in order to fix some of these issues. Unfortunately, this didn't work.
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"this didnt work"

well that's a matter of perspective.

was it popular? no. were white parents having absolute meltdowns that black kids were going to their schools? yes. was it so politically toxic that the current president of the united states partnered with southern segregationists to abolish it? also yes.

however, in terms of having positive education outcomes, bussing actually did work.

it not working is one of those "obvious" things that has become "true" with decades of people simply repeating it without ever attaching any evidence to it.

so did it work? again depends on your perspective.

also you claim just throwing money at it doesnt work have we ever done that? has it ever been the case that black schools were funded as well as white schools? because I used to work in education and I can tell you from actually going through big public school district budgets that as of a decade ago when I started the per student funding gap in some states could get as high as 10k per student per year (e.g. Pennsylvania). maybe we could try actually throwing money at the problem for once. and I dont mean, and I cannot be any clearer about this, throwing the money at the education grifter companies like the testing companies, textbook companies, in-school police forces, etc. I mean give all the schools the same amount of money per student and see what happens throw money at it.
 
What is it that makes it appear to me that about EVERYTHING that is wrong (my judgment) in the US cannot be solved because of politicians from either side blocking whatever was done by or for 'the other side'? Or is that observation completely off?

Can't there be a mutual interest to solve an issue in a way that serves ALL people in an equal manner or is the selfishness individualism just progressed too far? I just don't get it, we have schools in neighborhoods with lots of children from immigrant families due to the location of the school and the composition of the residents living in a neighborhood but those schools get more funding and manpower etc in an attempt to improve things for those kids.
 
MarcelNL said:
What is it that makes it appear to me that about EVERYTHING that is wrong (my judgment) in the US cannot be solved because of politicians from either side blocking whatever was done by or for 'the other side'? Or is that observation completely off?

Can't there be a mutual interest to solve an issue in a way that serves ALL people in an equal manner or is the selfishness individualism just progressed too far? I just don't get it, we have schools in neighborhoods with lots of children from immigrant families due to the location of the school and the composition of the residents living in a neighborhood but those schools get more funding and manpower etc in an attempt to improve things for those kids.
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what you're perceiving is:
https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites...testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf
But the picture changes markedly when all three independent variables are included in the multivariate Model 4 and are tested against each other. The estimated impact of average citizens’ preferences drops precipitously, to a non-significant, near-zero level. Clearly the median citizen or “median voter” at the heart of theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy does not do well when put up against economic elites and organized interest groups. The chief predictions of pure theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy can be decisively rejected. Not only do ordinary citizens not have uniquely substantial power over policy decisions; they have little or no independent influence on policy at all.

the way education is funded in the US, ie with a split of state and local taxes, it is obvious that wealthy families who wish to hoard education dollars merely need to move to areas with uniformly expensive housing and strict zoning laws. this area might be filled with the single family homes that wealthy families prefer, but in order to have the space to do so, they probably have to be adjacent to the cities, rather than in them, to balance access to employment with the need for land. they'd probably like to make it legally binding that only people they like can live there, but if it were say, the 1960s, courts might decide they cant do that, but then they find out that they dont even have to. maybe they could call these places something... maybe suburb is a good word?
 
So....the article says that it seems to be supported by evidence that might be somewhat solid that the wealthy have a much bigger say in what happens than the middle and lower classes? (I dread the time when saying - class is no longer politically correct)

Holy crap, I'm used to clearly structured literature, with an intro, background, hypothesis, methods, results, conclusion, discussion, references and all that...this reads as if some politician wrote an article...I mean 'estimated impact' 'does not do well' 'chief predictions of pure theories' PAH Hogwash and poppycock ;-)


Each of four theoretical traditions in the study of American politics—which can be characterized as theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy, Economic-Elite Domination, and two types of interest-group pluralism, Majoritarian Pluralism and Biased Pluralism—offers different predictions about which sets of actors have how much influence over public policy: average citizens; economic elites; and organized interest groups, mass-based or business-oriented. A great deal of empirical research speaks to the policy influence of one or another set of actors, but until recently it has not been possible to test these contrasting theoretical predictions against each other within a single statistical model. We report on an effort to do so, using a unique data set that includes measures of the key variables for 1,779 policy issues. Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence. The results provide substantial support for theories of Economic-Elite Domination and for theories of Biased Pluralism, but not for theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy or Majoritarian Pluralism.


And suburbanites create their own school environment by virtue of clustering in their own getto? That in itself is no different anywhere, as schools with kids from families with better education/higher income will probably do better...
 
MarcelNL said:
And suburbanites create their own school environment by virtue of clustering in their own getto? That in itself is no different anywhere, as schools with kids from families with better education/higher income will probably do better...
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more or less.

what is unique about the united states though is how much of education is funded through local taxes on the values of properties. the state gives an amount per student, in some states it's as little as 50% of their estimate for how much it should cost to educate the kids. the rest of the money is made up, mostly but not always, by taxes that are a percentage of the value of the properties the parents live at. you might think that this would be to cover higher costs, but it WAY more than makes up for the cost.

as a result, the average student in an inner city school actually has far fewer funds allocated to them. btw if you actually look the inner city schools often have significantly larger special ed populations, and special ed students are more expensive to educate. there are other things too like the state governments allow the telecoms to not provide services so you often see poor internet access not only at home for the kids who attend these schools but poor internet access at the school itself. does anyone here want to content that you dont need the internet in 2022? doubt it.

so to say we cant solve the problem with money, I would contend we've never actually tried to.
 
MarcelNL said:
You need to be very careful and find the definition for fully vaccinated, in some countries/graphs that means 2 vaccinations and in some it includes getting a booster!
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Sure,

Down Under that means a full course of approved vaccines (one does J&J or two doses of AZ, Pfizer etc). Boosters remain optional for now... Part of that is likely due to the fact that we had such a slow roll out of vaccines last year (stroll-out). Because a large cohort accessed vaccinations late, our middle aged and younger population will only be eligible for boosters this month or next. The boosters are here and people are willing, it is just a matter of waiting the full four months.

The vaccination data is being recorded by our Government. The public healthcare scheme (Medicare) has all of this information. In theory we should be able to retrospectively analyse the effect various vaccination outcomes (number of doses, timing, prior health conditions). In practice the data is probably difficult to access and match due to privacy concerns and the glorious navigability of various IT systems cobbled together using 1990's technology that was patched ad infinitum.

The EU have taken an interesting and smart route. Again, certificates are issued for a full course of approved vaccines (one or two dose schedules). As I understand it, the interesting addition is that the vaccine certificates expire after 9 months after your last shot. I believe you need boosters to renew the certificate? Interestingly I dont think they have determined an expiry period for the booster shots but are reserving the right to do so.
 
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