Unicorn trade equivalents?

[Logan A.]

Hey guys!
Every now and then I see a post with a unicorn knife, or just rare knife in general, requesting a trade. It’s hard to pin down equivalents on these trades, especially since value can be so variable when demand far outweighs the supply.

(Ex: Ashi honyaki, Kato, Shig, Takaba, Jiro, Konosuke, etc.)

For anybody that has traded a unicorn, or rare knife. What did you trade it for?

If you haven’t traded a rare knife, but have some thoughts on trade values then please share as well!

 

[mockit]

I'm new to the game, but I think value is a complex topic. What something is worth to someone will be highly dependent on the person. It is hard to make generalizations. The trends in the BST are noticeable, and you can see stock rise/fall on specific knives in a short period of time. I appreciate that the forum encourages posting trade values, but they are just a starting point. I have not pulled off a blockbuster trade. They become apparent if you watch the BST and new knife pages close enough .

 

[timebard]

IMO where it really gets tricky is trying to fairly price in different degrees of rarity/hype when the maker's pricing is below what the market will support (but unclear by how much). A Kippington and a Kaiju both are originally priced around $600, and both will sell basically instantly if you put them up on BST for that price... does that mean they're ~equal value? No, but it's not obvious what's a reasonable amount of cash to change hands.

Also it feels tricky to value more niche makers who aren't producing anymore and don't have the volume of secondary market sales as Kato, Shig et al. Comet, TX Knives, and Mori (Kono MM) are a few that come to mind.

 

[superworrier]

Kono MM is nowhere near unicorn status.(but maybe it was just an example)

 

[mockit]

If you have one you are willing to let go of . I'd put any Kono not being produced anymore on "a" list. It is certainly on my list lol. And that's the thing... the list is different for everyone. Case in point.

 

[superworrier]

I mean I’ve seen a ton of them sit at reasonable prices. OG Anryu is much closer to a unicorn in that regard and it’s not because it’s a better knife

Maybe arbitrary but i think a bare minimum requirement for a unicorn is a gently used one would sell quickly at retail price

 

[timebard]

Kono MM is nowhere near unicorn status.(but maybe it was just an example)

Agreed it's not a unicorn although I think they're awesome and haven't seen many pop up lately. My point is that there's a tier of makers that aren't mega-hyped but have a following, and are quite supply limited, which also are tricky to value regardless of whether you consider them unicorns or not.

 

[superworrier]

Agreed it's not a unicorn although I think they're awesome and haven't seen many pop up lately. My point is that there's a tier of makers that aren't mega-hyped but have a following, and are quite supply limited, which also are tricky to value regardless of whether you consider them unicorns or not.

It's quite an interesting spectrum. The Kaiju vs Kippington example is quite an interesting one. I think about this sort of thing when I see something like a Kitaeji lefty-usuba or an Okishiba yanagiba. Yeah, it's worth a lot, but the market is tiny. Kind of the opposite of the Kippington scenario (not marked up and in high demand vs marked up but in low demand)

 

[Logan A.]

If you have one you are willing to let go of . I'd put any Kono not being produced anymore on "a" list. It is certainly on my list lol. And that's the thing... the list is different for everyone. Case in point.

This is precisely why I mentioned “rare” knives as well. Unicorn Varies significantly across individuals. One of my examples above is Jiro. Many people wouldn’t consider Jiro knives unicorns, but they can be challenging to come by, and occasionally sell for over retail; bringing their trade equivalent to question.

 

[dehory]

IMO where it really gets tricky is trying to fairly price in different degrees of rarity/hype when the maker's pricing is below what the market will support (but unclear by how much). A Kippington and a Kaiju both are originally priced around $600, and both will sell basically instantly if you put them up on BST for that price... does that mean they're ~equal value? No, but it's not obvious what's a reasonable amount of cash to change hands..

This is a really interesting point well put. I’ve been struck by how markup seems absent on Kippington’s work on the secondary market vs any other maker/brand who is in comparably high demand (e.g. Kono Kaiju/Togo Reigo/FM/etc, Jiro, Kato, Shig, Kamon, Yanick, Nine). A lot of it comes down to the individual sellers, I guess, since the sample size/number of knives being bought and sold is quite small within the scale of the overall market. But I still find it puzzling.

I mean I’ve seen a ton of them sit at reasonable prices. OG Anryu is much closer to a unicorn in that regard and it’s not because it’s a better knife

Maybe arbitrary but i think a bare minimum requirement for a unicorn is a gently used one would sell quickly at retail price

MMs were overlooked/misunderstood when they came out (I saw an old KKF thread where they were being compared unfavourably with HD2s) and maybe they were sitting one or two years ago…but they have a very strong cult following at this point (of course as more time passes since the stop in production).

I’ve really been wanting to pick one up for the last 6 months and made enquiries, but whereas there have been opportunities for me during that time to buy a host of other hard-ish-to-get-but-not-quite-unicorn knives (Kato, Yanick, FM dama, Tsourkan, etc), I haven’t come close yet to snagging a MM — which to me gives them an undeniably unicorn-ish flavour even if they lack the prestige of a Kaiju…

I say all that not to argue the definition of “unicorn” status, but to reinforce @timebard’s excellent point that it’s particularly tricky to pinpoint the valuation of these niche out-of-production knives which some would consider “unicorn-ish” and others would flatly say are “nowhere near”.

 

[mockit]

I actually think there is a bit more control for Western makers. They are more present, and it is taboo to sell their knives for more than they are selling them for. No one should profit off these guys. This doesn't seem as apparent for limited production J knives where the market sets prices more freely. I don't think JNS and Carbon are profiting heavily from Katos and Jiros, respectively. No one will fight a +200$ markup on a Jiro in BST though. In trades, I think this falls apart. I probably could have traded a the9 + a bit of cash for a Kato WH recently. The market price on a Kato WH is 1300+? The open BST price for a 9 will not top what you pay for one from Rob. I am sure some people play things smart and trade dispassionately. I do not think that is the norm on this forum. People have expressed desires and are willing to come to value-based trade agreements. Maybe this is just my newbie idealistic view...

Having some pals on here that you can run trades by is big. I have reached out to a few people randomly about relative values, and everyone has been exceedingly kind in giving feedback. I have been impressed by how people offer advice without taking away from a potential sale. Y'all know who you are -- thank you .

I am intrigued by this topic and where some experienced members will take it. TY @Logan A. for bringing it up. I'm sure it isn't the first time on the forum.

 

[dehory]

I actually think there is a bit more control for Western makers. They are more present, and it is taboo to sell their knives for more than they are selling them for. No one should profit off these guys. This doesn't seem as apparent for limited production J knives where the market sets prices more freely. I don't think JNS and Carbon are profiting heavily from Katos and Jiros, respectively. No one will fight a +200$ markup on a Jiro in BST though. In trades, I think this falls apart. I probably could have traded a the9 + a bit of cash for a Kato WH recently. The market price on a Kato WH is 1300+? The open BST price for a 9 will not top what you pay for one from Rob. I am sure some people play things smart and trade dispassionately. I do not think that is the norm on this forum. People have expressed desires and are willing to come to value-based trade agreements. Maybe this is just my newbie idealistic view...

Having some pals on here that you can run trades by is big. I have reached out to a few people randomly about relative values, and everyone has been exceedingly kind in giving feedback. I have been impressed by how people offer advice without taking away from a potential sale. Y'all know who you are -- thank you .

I am intrigued by this topic and where some experienced members will take it. TY @Logan A. for bringing it up. I'm sure it isn't the first time on the forum.

I think one factor at play is exactly that — experience.

Speaking personally, I was definitely overeager when I was earlier on in my knife binge journey. I’d happily overpay for certain knives (see the other thread about Tanaka x Kyuzo). Over-exuberant buyers like the earlier me almost always start off with Japanese knives — and we are obviously a big part of what drives the…flexible pricing you observe being more common with rare J-knife sales.

Then with more experience, as we move onto western makers, we start having a bit more circumspection about the prices we pay. In part because of experience about fair market pricing, in part because we’ve been pretty satiated with sharp pointy things, and in part because 4-figure prices are now par for course. I’d speculate that we are extra deliberate about the values we set for trades because at that point, we’re trading for other high value knives with other experienced members who we’ve dealt with before. The fact that we know (and have likely at this point conversed with) western makers who are on these forums also surely helps to stabilise pricing for their knives.

That said, I personally haven’t necessarily observed it being “taboo” for values to be set above western makers’ original list price. (Which is why I find the Kippington example remarkable.) For one thing, with so many international members being active on BST, taxes and duties can get baked into the prices of highly desired pieces (and rightly so) which easily adds 20%+ to their valuations. And probably best to stop there lest we start veering into the excruciatingly repetitive flipper debate.

EDIT: I should add that I’m eminently unqualified to comment on this topic, never having traded a single knife. Though I do have a low level of insight (and a high level of curious interest) on the buying/pricing side just through having bought quite a few.

 

[Pie]

Kono MM is nowhere near unicorn status.(but maybe it was just an example)

I agree they’re not unicorn by the standard definition. If the winds swayed differently in an alternate universe perhaps it would be considered as such - it’s an excellent, well finished knife made by a retired female smith (now THAT is true rarity) and ground by one of the more desirable sharpeners these days. Cuts pretty good too.

But no. I have not traded or laid hands on a true unicorn knife. Nor do I really intend to. I think.

 

[bahamaroot]

Where you can easily separate the Kaiju and Kippington example, there are a lot more Kippington knives out there than Kaiju. Though they may have both sold at around the same retail price, if you listed both a Kippington and a Kaiju on the secondary market for $1500 the Kaiju would sell in seconds where the Kippington would just sit. The Kaiju would definitely qualify as a unicorn where the Kippington is just a highly sought after knife at this point.

And an OG Anryu being more of a unicorn than an MM, that statement belongs in the "Unpopular Opinions" thread.

 

[superworrier]

Where you can easily separate the Kaiju and Kippington example, there are a lot more Kippington knives out there than Kaiju. Though they may have both sold at around the same retail price, if you listed both a Kippington and a Kaiju on the secondary market for $1500 the Kaiju would sell in seconds where the Kippington would just sit. The Kaiju would definitely qualify as a unicorn where the Kippington is just a highly sought after knife at this point.

And an OG Anryu being more of a unicorn than an MM, that statement belongs in the "Unpopular Opinions" thread.

Not saying it is anywhere near a unicorn, but I think it's closer, regardless of what one thinks about the actual knife. OG Anryus have sold for 2-3x for retail multiple times, but I'm rather confident this is not true for Kono MM. Not saying it's logical at all, but it is what it is. Unicorn status is not based on any notion of priceerformance anyway.

 

[superworrier]

I agree they’re not unicorn by the standard definition. If the winds swayed differently in an alternate universe perhaps it would be considered as such - it’s an excellent, well finished knife made by a retired female smith (now THAT is true rarity) and ground by one of the more desirable sharpeners these days. Cuts pretty good too.

But no. I have not traded or laid hands on a true unicorn knife. Nor do I really intend to. I think.

I think it won't be for the same reason Kono HD1 won't be; it's effectively continued by a new line that is effectively the same (HD2 and Tetsujin). Yeah, the steel is slightly different for HD, and maybe the heat treat is maybe different for MM/Tetsujin, but the difference is subtle enough that it's probably less than knife-to-knife variation. Honestly, it's a solid knife, but with a successor line that is nearly identical, and nothing super unique about the knife, I think it will fizzle out. For Kato, Shig, and Hinoura, they do something unique that hasn't been reproduced by other makers, which contributes to their staying power.

I also think demand for these types of knives waxes and wanes. There are knives that were once hard to acquire, but are no longer so once the hype cycle is passed. It's interesting to see where Jiro goes from here. He's definitely peaking in hype right now, but since he is still young, I doubt it will reach unicorn status and eventually the market will get saturated, especially with the recent price increases. I can remember that they used to sit on BST just a year ago, but now they are incredibly scarce and someone even traded a Yanick for one (maybe another one where we'll have to see if the hype can last).

Ultimately the kitchen knife market is relatively small, so things can change fast. Once the first Jiro sits (if it ever does), the perception will do a 180.

 

[dehory]

I also think demand for these types of knives waxes and wanes. There are knives that were once hard to acquire, but are no longer so once the hype cycle is passed. It's interesting to see where Jiro goes from here. He's definitely peaking in hype right now, but since he is still young, I doubt it will reach unicorn status and eventually the market will get saturated, especially with the recent price increases. I can remember that they used to sit on BST just a year ago, but now they are incredibly scarce and someone even traded a Yanick for one (maybe another one where we'll have to see if the hype can last).

Ultimately the kitchen knife market is relatively small, so things can change fast.

Really good points. You’ve definitely been able to see that wax and wane in effect on BST these last couple of months with certain knives sitting even after multiple price drops.

The fact that Jiro (and Yanick) knives are still flying off the shelves after significant price increases is interesting too. It definitely suggests that there’s still enough current demand that there’s wiggle room on list prices set by other makers whose work can sell in minutes on BST (e.g. a certain avian aficionado who we all adore). But maybe it’s in the interest of makers to maintain a sense of being slightly undervalued because it helps to keep up long term, sustainable demand?

 

[superworrier]

Really good points. You’ve definitely been able to see that wax and wane in effect on BST these last couple of months with certain knives sitting even after multiple price drops.

The fact that Jiro (and Yanick) knives are still flying off the shelves after significant price increases is interesting too. It definitely suggests that there’s still enough current demand that there’s wiggle room on list prices set by other makers whose work can sell in minutes on BST (e.g. a certain avian aficionado who we all adore). But maybe it’s in the interest of makers to maintain a sense of being slightly undervalued because it helps to keep up long term, sustainable demand?

I feel like it definitely makes sense to slightly undervalue your prices. Hard to get it right, but the ability to try, then re-sell with value intact (or even higher) makes buying their knives a no-brainer.
Nike mastered this with Jordans. They always made sure that they wouldn't sit on shelves, even going as far to supply less (or none) to stores where they didn't sell out. Keeping the perception of scarcity was important to the hype, even though it was completely manufactured. Textbook case of limiting supply to keep demand high.