Covid: the shape of things to come

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I'm still looking for an explanation as to the over-representation of unvaccinated people in hospitals. This sure suggests that the vaccines are working, even though they are not 100% effective.

As far as I am concerned, I'll probably get Covid sooner or later. And, being vaccinated, I like my chances of coming out the other side intact much better.
This is correct. I know people as old as 90 who got infected while being vaccinated and having extremely mild. I have known people have that age unvaccinated who have died (yes of course this is anecdotal) but considering the thousands of cases I personally have viewed and closed...well that isn't.
 
The thing that pisses me off the most is that it doesn’t matter how many times you produce extremely well implemented and thought out studies. “I will mention Michi here” no one who disagrees is willing to listen. I’m too lazy to post the hundreds of studies that show vaccinated people don’t die as often and aren’t hospitalized near as often as the unvaccinated but it’s so obvious only the most closed minded people on this planet would disagree.
 
@L, I hate to argue with the best orator on the forum but in my real world experience, every day for the last two years, the masks are meaningless feel good devices. Facilities with the most arduous PPE requirements have exactly the same postitivity rates as the surrounding population in the areas they serve.

I know youre being tongue-in-cheek.... but I'll take that as a compliment ;)

The observations I shared about mask wearing are simply my impressions. I believe them to be fairly objective. I recently moved to one of the most highly educated, least god fearing cities in our Nanny State Girt by Sea. That means the people I am watching are statistically likely to be obedient progressives. They are largely done with masks!! So this definitely isnt a political thing. Society just want to get back to their normal lives.

Look; I am not here to invalidate your lived experience. The risk factors in contracting covid are time and distance. The closer you are to a covid source and the more time you spend in proximity to that source... the higher your chances of contracting covid. Public health messaging emphasises mask wearing and washing hands because it is something individuals can control. While ventilation is mentioned, it is not emphasised because it is largely out of our control. Sadly for this forum, ventilation is relevant. Kitchens are cramped busy spaces. People are doing physical jobs in a hot room. They're yelling orders at each other. After a 8-12 hour shift in a small kitchen? You have accumulated a lot of exposure time. If the kitchen is not well ventilated and a coworker is shedding, there will be a lot of airborne virus circulating. Inconsistently or improperly worn masks in that environment may be little more than a placebo. Properly worn masks may not be sufficient.

For me on my groceries run? The supermarket and shopping centers I use are big spaces albeit with high foot traffic. I try to social distance. I try to keep moving around. I am seldom there for longer than 15mins (I do 2-3 small trips rather than one big one). A mask will reduce or eliminate any virus I encounter. It is also a public courtesy. Many of the register clerks wear masks. I feel it is respectful of me to do the same. Immunocompromised people still need to shop. I feel like I should play my part in making an essential service for them safer....

But this is largely becoming academic... we are re-entering a world where you get to increasingly choose what you want to do.... look at the UK....


As for facilities with the most arduous PPE requirements? Ebola and smallpox arent known to commonly escape BSL-4 in Atlanta ;). As for more germane examples... I wouldnt be surprised if regular hospitals (at least in Australia) had far lower positivity rates per exposure than their neighbouring businesses.
 
Some time ago I came across an essay by the title of "Needle Points" by Norman Doidge. It was published last October in the pre-omicron stages of the pandemic. It's over 30 pages, but an audio version exists that runs about 3 hours.

In short it's a essay that highlights the legitimate arguments for vaccine hesitancy (not outright opposition), pharmaceutical scandals, poor research practices pertaining to the current pandemic, as well as a brief overview of some of the psychology involved in all of that. I think it's solid, and reasonably objective information, something which has been sorely lacking in almost every domain pertaining to the pandemic since its beginning.

Anyways, I've been lurking for a while around this thread and thought that some of people involved in it might be interested in such an elucidating undertaking, if they haven't already encountered the essay. So here you are gentlemen, I hope you find it useful.

Article: Why Is There So Much Vaccine Hesitancy?

Video/Audio:
 
You seem to mix up a few things, a booster is indeed less effective against contracting the current variants, yet that same booster still offers good protection against severity of disease and therefore getting

I'm not mixing up anything. The vaccine that was supposed to save the world didn't. That there may be a secondary effect of reducing the effects is something that makes sense though I remain somewhat skeptical and I'm skeptical of almost everything that is asserted as fact surrounding Covid. Too much "fact" is being disseminated by folks with a vested interest in the outcomes.

@T3 Lost your quote but I know you're only obtuse when you're trying to be. I'm not "nominally" asking questions of people on here, I am questioning "studies" that are contrary to my real world experience. At the risk of repeating myself, I work closely with 10 skilled nursing facilities in my area and spend 40 - 60 hrs/week inside one or more of them. The PPE requirements in a given facility are set by the administrator. Facilities with arduous PPE requirements have no better positivity rates that the surrounding population and are also not significantly different than facilities that only require the surgical or handmade masks. Yes it makes sense that a filtration mechanism offers a layer of protection from any airborne sort of transmission but my experience (with an admittedly small sample size) is that it's negligible.

I know youre being tongue-in-cheek.... but I'll take that as a compliment

It was meant as a compliment. You set the standard for thought before words around here. And because you're so damn gracious about it, no one ever feels dumb when they're wrong (not that I would know first hand :cool: )

I am not and never have been anti-vaccine, I am pro-choice. To my way of thinking even the vaccinate for the good of everyone collapses when the only benefit of the vax is reduced effects of the illness. Are the vaccinated less likely to contract Covid? Not even Pfizer is trying to sell that bs anymore. Are the vaccinated less contagious? Hard to accept that one when everyday world leaders, surrounded only by vaccinated peoples, test positive. So the vax choice involves individual consequences and should be an individual choice - without the shame and blame.

Too many thumbs are on the scales for me to be less cynical about "studies", mandates, and everything else this soup sandwich has turned into.
 
Worship at the alter of government.

Kneel before the specter of the isolated academics.

Cower in fear of your own fleeting existence.

Surrender and succumb.

There now, isn't that warm?

The establishment turns every single issue into an opportunity to take. The only two things the establishment knows how to do is take and grow. I'm a good citizen, a good neighbor, a patriot. I will sacrifice, I will adjust, I will accommodate. But only to a point and that point has long passed.

The desire for control is only surpassed by the hypocrisy of those demanding it.

Science is only as good as those providing it. If science was so concrete, why is there so much of it that contradicts?

I'm told that those who didn't wear masks or get vaccinated (both of which I did) take up hospital bed space and it's unfair. Sure, sure. But how many beds in that hospital are full of people who did all kinds of things that could be considered unfair? If you haven't been in an emergency room on any given night in the last ten years, let me help you, it's full of illegal immigrants, welfare cases, and drug addicts. I'm none of those things. Is that fair? Am I getting too deep? Conflating issues?

I don't think so and it's because I don't think so that I guess some folks have issue with me. That's okay. What I do find interesting is how angry and demanding and intolerant so many are to my way of thinking but how willing I am to want to find common ground with them.

My wife and I got COVID. My brother in law died from it. I have an autoimmune disabled daughter who has been scared for two years. So, yeah, it has meaning to me.

I did all the things. I even did the things I knew were BS like masks. Masks, for many reasons, won't work for the populace and the CDC had that on their site before COVID. But it never stops and it's always more.

What we did to our children is shameful and it was done out of our fear.

I lived my entire childhood in fear and swore I'd never live my life like again.

At some point ya gotta start cutting things up and making tough choices. Life is hard, life is unfair, life can be cruel, but life must go on.

Me, as an individual, is just not that important. And as important as my family is to me, neither are any of them in the grand scheme. We have to accept risk. We do it every day and we have to access those levels of risks and base it off the greater good. My disabled daughter absolutely must protect herself and we must be extremely careful in our dealings with her. But the rest of the world does not have to change for her. Business must stay open, schools must have kids, people need to live their lives.

Now, I've been on the internet since it's inception and I know I will change no minds. I'm not going to wade into debate and you can dissect what I've said as much as you'd like. I hope none of my friends on the forum who may disagree with me will react differently to me any more than I will any of you. It's okay to disagree and on that, I hope we can agree.

Be well my friends. :)
 
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I'm told that those who didn't wear masks or get vaccinated (both of which I did) take up hospital bed space and it's unfair. Sure, sure. But how many beds in that hospital are full of people who did all kinds of things that could be considered unfair? If you haven't been in an emergency room on any given night in the last ten years, let me help you, it's full of illegal immigrants, welfare cases, and drug addicts. I'm none of those things. Is that fair? Am I getting too deep? Conflating issues?


Be well my friends. :)

There is quite a bit of irony in you ending your post with “be well” when for all you know, anyone on this board reading that could be some or all of your “unfair” criteria who are taking up beds. Curious if you have statistics of the percentage of those sub-humans taking up beds versus anti-vax, or if that was just your way of airing your grievances.

Covid aside, do you believe that someone who is illegally in the country, relies on government subsidies and/or has a substance abuse problem does NOT deserve proper/basic medical attention?
 
There is quite a bit of irony in you ending your post with “be well” when for all you know, anyone on this board reading that could be some or all of your “unfair” criteria who are taking up beds. Curious if you have statistics of the percentage of those sub-humans taking up beds versus anti-vax, or if that was just your way of airing your grievances.

Covid aside, do you believe that someone who is illegally in the country, relies on government subsidies and/or has a substance abuse problem does NOT deserve proper/basic medical attention?

Sub-humans? You did that. And that's the problem. I never said any such thing and you have no idea what my experiences are.

There's no irony in anything I said.
 
There is quite a bit of irony in you ending your post with “be well” when for all you know, anyone on this board reading that could be some or all of your “unfair” criteria who are taking up beds. Curious if you have statistics of the percentage of those sub-humans taking up beds versus anti-vax, or if that was just your way of airing your grievances.

Covid aside, do you believe that someone who is illegally in the country, relies on government subsidies and/or has a substance abuse problem does NOT deserve proper/basic medical attention?
To me the point being made was that one of the main arguments for the vaccines was that since unvaccinated take up beds if they get sick it is not fair to the society at large and thus these people should be forced or at least pressured into being vaccinated. The argument being that since their actions affect others and society at large they loose the right to make this personal medical decision. As a society we make these choices all the time, many freedoms are taken away from individuals for the good of the society, this is normal and the only way to have a functional society. The question then becomes, is being vaccinated from covid falls under the same paradigm of forgoing individual freedom for the good of others. Before omicron it looked like forcing people to vaccinate was a net positive and that vaccines, mandates, school closures, etc were more important than individual freedoms. After omicron it is not as clear. Before omicron it seemed that vaccinated were unlikely to get the virus and were unlikely to spread it, so it made sense to vaccinate all to protect people who couldn’t be vaccinated. Now, it seems like vaccinated are not less likely to spread the virus. If true, then being vaccinated becomes an individual choice except that we again come back to unvaccinated taking up beds, which is unfair. This is similar to people who participate in other dangerous activities, such as playing sports, skiing, riding bikes, motorcycles, etc. These people put extra burden on our medical system purely by choice and for personal enjoyment. There is no benefit to others when I go skiing, bolder climbing or other activities I participate in. Technically, I should be either forbidden from doing these things or at least pay out of pocket if I get hurt. After all this was one of the proposals some here made for the unvaccinated who contracted covid and ended up in a hospital. I think the other examples given were in the same spirit. Most societies agree that for good of all basic emergency care should be given to anyone. Shouldn‘t then unvaccinated fall under the same umbrella, shouldn’t we then not use “taking up beds” as an argument for forcing vaccinations?
 
To me the point being made was that one of the main arguments for the vaccines was that since unvaccinated take up beds if they get sick it is not fair to the society at large and thus these people should be forced or at least pressured into being vaccinated.
Strongly encouraged, maybe?

By the way, mandatory vaccination isn't anything new. We currently have a whole raft of mandatory vaccinations.

I also remember that vaccination against smallpox was mandatory when I grew up in Germany. Measles vaccination is currently compulsory in Germany as well.

This is similar to people who participate in other dangerous activities, such as playing sports, skiing, riding bikes, motorcycles, etc. These people put extra burden on our medical system purely by choice and for personal enjoyment. There is no benefit to others when I go skiing, bolder climbing or other activities I participate in. Technically, I should be either forbidden from doing these things or at least pay out of pocket if I get hurt.
The analogy is somewhat strained because people who suffer skiing accidents don't overwhelm hospitals, whereas unvaccinated Covid patients brought our hospital system to its knees not that long ago. If people suffered skiing accidents at the same rate as people get Covid, we'd probably make skiing illegal, seeing that we can't vaccinate against skiing accidents ;)

Shouldn‘t then unvaccinated fall under the same umbrella, shouldn’t we then not use “taking up beds” as an argument for forcing vaccinations?
It's not an easy call to make. It balances individual rights against society's needs as a whole. There will always be grey areas.

Note though that we don't hesitate, for example, to make seatbelts mandatory, and most people don't have much of a problem with that, whereas, many years ago, a lot of people tried to stop compulsory seatbelt laws. It is similar with firearms here. I don't have a right to bear a firearm. Instead, it is something that I have to apply for, provide good reasons for wanting a firearm, and I'm allowed to have one only if society judges me trustworthy enough.

And, of course, I can't go and drive my car when I'm over the limit without risking some serious fines and/or imprisonment.

These things all impinge on my "rights" in some way. Personally, I have no problem with mandatory vaccinations (which, as I said, we have quite a lot of already). Once the cost of treating needlessly sick people gets large enough, governments usually clamp down and declare "enough is enough". For example, we currently have a "no jab, no pay" policy for child vaccination. As a parent, if I refuse to vaccinate my child, I lose a bunch of benefits, and my child cannot attend a daycare centre. I would consider that "strong encouragement."

Homosexuality was illegal not that long ago, and it is still illegal in many countries today. That is a much harsher intrusion on personal rights than mandatory vaccination. But there was a time and place where that was considered proper and in the interest of society. Go figure…

At any rate, there is plenty of precedence of governments stepping in and severely curtailing people's "rights". It's nothing new, and we do it all the time.
 
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Strongly encouraged, maybe?

By the way, mandatory vaccination isn't anything new. We currently have a whole raft of mandatory vaccinations.

I also remember that vaccination against smallpox was mandatory when I grew up in Germany. Measles vaccination is currently compulsory in Germany as well.


The analogy is somewhat strained because people who suffer skiing accidents don't overwhelm hospitals, whereas unvaccinated Covid patients brought our hospital system to its knees not that long ago. If people suffered skiing accidents at the same rate as people get Covid, we'd probably make skiing illegal, seeing that we can't vaccinate against skiing accidents ;)


It's not an easy call to make. It balances individual rights against society's needs as a whole. There will always be grey areas.

Note though that we don't hesitate, for example, to make seatbelts mandatory, and most people don't have much of a problem with that, whereas, many years ago, a lot of people tried to stop compulsory seatbelt laws. It is similar with firearms here. I don't have a right to bear a firearm. Instead, it is something that I have to apply for, provide good reasons for wanting a firearm, and I'm allowed to have one only if society judges me trustworthy enough.

And, of course, I can't go and drive my car when I'm over the limit without risking some serious fines and/or imprisonment.

These things all impinge on my "rights" in some way. Personally, I have no problem with mandatory vaccinations (which, as I said, we have quite a lot of already). Once the cost of treating needlessly sick people gets large enough, governments usually clamp down and declare "enough is enough". For example, we currently have a "no jab, no pay" policy for child vaccination. If, as a parent, I refuse the vaccinate my child, I lose a bunch of benefits, and my child cannot attend a daycare centre. I would consider that "strong encouragement."

Homosexuality was illegal not that long ago, and it is still illegal in many countries today. That is a much harsher intrusion on personal rights than mandatory vaccination. But there was a time and place where that was considered proper and in the interest of society. Go figure…

At any rate, there is plenty of precedence of governments stepping in and severely curtailing people's "rights". It's nothing new, and we do it all the time.
All good points and the reason I wrote that individual rights have to be curtailed to one degree or another for any society to work. The question is always to what degree and specifically if mandatory covid vaccines and other measures should fall under this umbrella. Like you say we already have many vaccine requirements for day care, schools and universities as well as for some jobs. The difference is that these required vaccines generally prevent vaccinated from getting the disease and when boosters are needed they are usually needed many years apart. I could be wrong, but I can‘t think of any required vaccines where one needs to be boosted very often and where breakthrough cases for vaccinated are very common. In any case my point was that the situation as it stands now is not very clear. To me vaccinating before omicron seemed like a no brained, but I am not sure now. I’ve had covid twice, before vaccines were available to me and after I got vaccinated. My coworker that is being fired for not vaccinating hasn’t had covid even once. I am not convinced that “strongly encouraging“ him is the right thing to do at this point.
 
My coworker that is being fired for not vaccinating hasn’t had covid even once. I am not convinced that “strongly encouraging“ him is the right thing to do at this point.
I take your point. We are dealing with iteration four or five of the virus by now. Initially, it looked like the vaccines provided very good protection against getting infected, even if it was not perfect and the protection waned over time. This seemed to work pretty well until the end of Delta. Once Omicron showed up, the vaccines were much less effective at preventing infection, but still seem to be doing a good job at preventing severe disease. Unfortunately, the whole thing is a bloody arms race :(

My best friend tested positive three days ago. It looks like the illness is not a big deal for him. He's under the weather, like with a severe cold. It seems unlikely that anything worse will come of it. He has had three shots though. It seems likely that his illness is mild because of that. (Anecdotal, I know…)

What puzzles me about vaccine hesitancy is that it seems too good a deal to knock back. What's there to lose? The worst thing that can happen is that I get Covid and, despite being vaccinated, still get a bad case of it. But chances are that I'll be better off due to the vaccine. And I'm not aware of any cases of the vaccines making the illness worse.
 
The analogy is somewhat strained because people who suffer skiing accidents don't overwhelm hospitals, whereas unvaccinated Covid patients brought our hospital system to its knees not that long ago. If people suffered skiing accidents at the same rate as people get Covid, we'd probably make skiing illegal, seeing that we can't vaccinate against skiing accidents ;)
Not disagreeing with anything that you said, but Moab Utah did strongly discourage mountain bikers from coming there early in the pandemic to keep them from taking up the few hospital beds that they had.
 
What puzzles me about vaccine hesitancy is that it seems too good a deal to knock back. What's there to lose? The worst thing that can happen is that I get Covid and, despite being vaccinated, still get a bad case of it. But chances are that I'll be better off due to the vaccine. And I'm not aware of any cases of the vaccines making the illness worse.

I also don't necessarily see what the big deal with getting the vaccine is. There are also indications that omicron is less dangerous regardless of vaccination status. At some point though if the vaccine doesn't prevent the spread, but rather protects the person who gets the vaccine then it becomes a personal choice with the only effect to others being the sick person taking someone else's bed at the hospital. At that point not doing the vaccine becomes more like participating in other dangerous activities. We can discuss scale, as you've pointed out and maybe covid unvaxed still take too many beds, but it is a somewhat different discussion than what some who see it very black and white make it out to be.
 
I think it's solid, and reasonably objective information, something which has been sorely lacking in almost every domain pertaining to the pandemic since its beginning.

Video/Audio:


I regret to inform you that this is a grifter, 'presented' by another grifter.

I recognize that it is difficult to tell which people know what they're talking about and who doesn't, especially when people start adding "Dr." in front of their name without telling you what type/where they got it, and furthermore it's hard to understand how the people like this who want to grift you present information in a way that is difficult for non-experts to distinguish from actual good work.

So consider this some friendly advice from someone who through chance happens to be able to, to not listen to the people involved in that video.
 
It was meant as a compliment. You set the standard for thought before words around here. And because you're so damn gracious about it, no one ever feels dumb when they're wrong (not that I would know first hand :cool: )

😲🥳

Oh geeze! Well! My apologies. Self doubt: sometimes I write a lengthy post and think "is anybody really going to bother reading all of this". Perhaps that is why I doubted your comment.

I am not sure I am worthy of the compliment but I am grateful.... although... now I am going to be self conscious about trying to maintain it! 🤪

Thank you!
 
Another CDC update concerning masks and why they are ineffective

ADEE35BD-CE12-436F-8484-009363CACA42.jpeg
 
Please post a source with peer reviewed data showing the efficacy of cloth masks and other non-N95 masks for Covid and stop citing masks until you do, that’s your standard, right?

The CDC just updated their data yet once again, your article is from February and is outdated

This is exactly what I said was going to happen with all of the coronavirus data, they were going to keep walking it back little by little

This is the reason all of the mandates are being lifted.
 
Please post a source with peer reviewed data showing the efficacy of cloth masks and other non-N95 masks for Covid and stop citing masks until you do, that’s your standard, right?

The CDC just updated their data yet once again, your article is from February and is outdated

This is exactly what I said was going to happen with all of the coronavirus data, they were going to keep walking it back little by little

This is the reason all of the mandates are being lifted.

Where's your source? A pixellated unreadable graph is hardly a peer-reviewed anything. Also, a dataset covering half the population for 6+ months is hardly going to be outdated by a couple extra datapoints. Your arguments are tired and irrelevant.
 
Please post a source with peer reviewed data showing the efficacy of cloth masks and other non-N95 masks for Covid and stop citing masks until you do, that’s your standard, right?

let's just start with posting the link to the original article containing graphic you've already posted.

it's not too much to ask

@Geigs I appreciate where you're coming from but before we start having this conversation we need to, for once, get a source here. there's no sense in engaging if we cant even get that.

@EricEricEric you posted a chart we cannot make out, with no link back to where it came from. if you are unwilling to share where you got it, you shouldn't post it.
 
It's pretty sad that after 3 years of pandemic we are still stuck at debating the relative merits of cloth vs N95s and why one might be more efficacious. This is why I've avoided this thread, and why I shall once again retreat.
 
Please post a source with peer reviewed data showing the efficacy of cloth masks and other non-N95 masks for Covid and stop citing masks until you do, that’s your standard, right?
You keep harping on about cloth masks and non-N95 masks. You might as well state that "masks that don't work do not work". Very deep…

Maybe it would make more sense to talk about masks that actually do work, namely N95 masks?
 
Please post a source with peer reviewed data showing the efficacy of cloth masks and other non-N95 masks for Covid and stop citing masks until you do, that’s your standard, right?

The CDC just updated their data yet once again, your article is from February and is outdated

This is exactly what I said was going to happen with all of the coronavirus data, they were going to keep walking it back little by little

This is the reason all of the mandates are being lifted.

sure, the mandates are lifted because data was manipulated....nope, mandates are lifted because the virus changes and risk benefit assessments change.

For most of the world all the data points at the same thing and we see the same trends in changes in policy (except for China that is continuing their zero tolerance for Covid policy)? Perhaps the data is as correct as it reasonably can be and insights change over time, as the virus does too?
 
I think it is fair to say that the only reason plain cloth masks were accepted was simply it took quite a while to get N95 type masks production up to a necessary volume. I never really carried much else then N95.

Anyway - I sincerely hope that we will observe further decrease in cases and deaths that that once these type of Corona viruses will become endemic, that what will remain is not just millions of used masks somewhere in the middle of the Atlantic, but also experience for our governments that providing technical solutions is not enough for a wide spread acceptance, but opened and clear communication AND public discussion is necessary.

This time we got lucky, next virus may be a couple of times stronger and there will not be time for ad-hoc policies and day-to-day changes of rules. There are many lessons to be learned.
 
Please post a source with peer reviewed data showing the efficacy of cloth masks and other non-N95 masks for Covid and stop citing masks until you do, that’s your standard, right?

The CDC just updated their data yet once again, your article is from February and is outdated

This is exactly what I said was going to happen with all of the coronavirus data, they were going to keep walking it back little by little

This is the reason all of the mandates are being lifted.
Mandates not working and masks not working are 2 different things but you like to use it interchangeably. Fake news Eric.

You intentionally twist what something says to fit your narrative or you are talking about things you do not comprehend fully.
 
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