Covid: the shape of things to come

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Questioning the science is not how you do science. We stand on the shoulders of giants. That is how we make progress. If you couldn't take anything for granted, you'd be constantly investigating the same thing and doing everything from first principles.

I'm a little uncomfortable with this. A significant amount of published, peer reviewed, scientific work from the past few decades has failed replication attempts, including some frequently cited work. Maybe a little more investigating the same thing wouldn't be all bad. There are also quite a few examples of now accepted science that were rejected for decades (the bacterial connection to stomach ulcers, plate tectonics,...). Max Planck's quip that "Science advances one funeral at a time" is not without some validity.

With regard to the issue of public understanding and behavior there are quite a number of issues in play. The general public's grasp of science in general and how science works appears to be extremely shallow. Their grasp of statistics is, if anything, even shallower. We're dealing with something that has a huge number of uncontrolled variables - this isn't a situation with clear and immediate cause and effect, e.g. you stick your finger in the fire and it gets burned - so it is difficult to apprehend. Governments that cavalierly lie to their public on an almost daily basis certainly hasn't helped. Add some questionable decisions by the public health community as well as some bad framing and public education in a world where ideas that range from well meaning but poorly understood to bat **** crazy can be quickly and widely distributed and you have our current mess. You can throw in the erosion of a sense of public or communal responsibility too, but how real this apparent phenomena actually is I don't know.
 
This distinction’s a little too black and white, though. Absolutely other scientists should question existing theories and the results of previous studies, at least until they’re well replicated. @Luftmensch’s comment was more about nonscientists questioning (really, dismissing) the existing scientific literature based on personal experience / anecdotes. Personal experience is powerfully convincing, I admit, and if it’s at odds with a study it might be worth replicating the study, but it’s not itself a study.
 
This distinction’s a little too black and white, though. Absolutely other scientists should question existing theories and the results of previous studies, at least until they’re well replicated. @Luftmensch’s comment was more about nonscientists questioning (really, dismissing) the existing scientific literature based on personal experience / anecdotes. Personal experience is powerfully convincing, I admit, and if it’s at odds with a study it might be worth replicating the study, but it’s not itself a study.

I think @Luftmensch was addressing something of a Platonic ideal. In general I don't see a huge amount of the public not believing specific research papers, which they don't read unless someone is shoving it in their face along with an "interpretation" of what it means, but rather questioning "scientific" advice drawn (one hopes) from the research but filtered through politicians, bureaucrats, and the media which is a rather different animal. I think public distrust broadly is generally a good thing given that the government, corporations, and the media have given them ample reason over the past fifty years plus not to trust them. Of course the problem is that public trust can be be a highly desirable commodity but once you've squandered it....
 
Here's a little reality for ya
Hubble deep field taken around 30 years ago. Sure most here have seen it.
Northern Hemisphere just above big dipper the
Blackest part of sky Hubble took long exposure

With a few milky way stars every other light is a galaxy. Several thousand of them in an area like looking tube smaller than a postage stamp at the sky.
Then they aimed Hubble to another black no star area in the Southern Hemisphere that's this image. Same thing thousands of Galaxy.
If you expand picture the four brightest with cross of light on them are stars in milky way galaxy. Every other light no matter how dim are deep field galaxies.
View attachment 157522

The James Webb has a much larger mirror and much more advanced sensors & cameras.
This is so f’ing cool 😎 and the only regret I have is I won’t be around in to find out what’s really out there. Some day we’ll find somewhere else to call home and how amazing that new reality will be!
 
Plate Tectonics - Abraham Ortelius (Dutch) in
1500's was first recorded scientist, master map maker to say America's were joined then split from EU & Africa.

In 1912 Alfred Wegener (German) said that the continents were drifting slowly around the earth. His hypothesis was widely rejected by
most Geologist. Only in 1950's it was proven by many findings like palaeomagnetism. Once it was realized it tied so many things together in the field of Geology. How Mountains are formed uplifted crust from early Earth sea fossils high up in mountain ranges.

Both these men were Giants in their fields.

Calcium Carbonate from reefs & tiny shells of sea organisms during early Jurassic formed a carboniferous platform uplifting formed the Italian Alps. High pressure changed carbonate
Into white Carrara Marble.

Michelangelo's David is carved from compacted carbonate from an ancient sea floor.

Another genius from the past.
 
I'm a little uncomfortable with this.

Understandably.

@Luftmensch’s comment was more about nonscientists questioning (really, dismissing) the existing scientific literature based on personal experience / anecdotes.

Mostly this 👆

I think @Luftmensch was addressing something of a Platonic ideal.

A tiny bit... but mostly I was addressing how the outcomes of science should be consumed by the public and politicians.

In general I don't see a huge amount of the public not believing specific research papers, which they don't read unless someone is shoving it in their face along with an "interpretation" of what it means, but rather questioning "scientific" advice drawn (one hopes) from the research but filtered through politicians, bureaucrats, and the media which is a rather different animal.

I respectfully disagree.

Climate change is a prime example. Yes politics and money are perverting the discussion. Yes media is throwing fuel on the fire. But if people actually accepted the science, politicians would have a difficult time convincing their constituents to vote for them. Media would have poor subscribership. All this sh!t and pollution in the information space would be laughed off and dismissed as junk.

Same for the antivax movement. Same for the anti-mask crowd. Flat earthers exist in remarkable numbers.

These people are out there. Each time these communities challenge the emergent science (based on their political/cultural/religious philosophies) we depart from an objective reality and waste time arguing about facts.

I have said it many times on KKF: i dont care one iota if you say:
  • I accept climate change is real but I don't want to change the way society is organised - I dont want to do anything about it
  • I accept masks offer varying degrees of protection but I find them uncomfortable and my comfort is more important than increasing the safety of those around me.
These are positions honest and don't attempt to hide their agenda behind some alternate version of an 'objective' reality.


Max Planck's quip that "Science advances one funeral at a time" is not without some validity.

Oh sure! It has validity. Our descriptions of the universe need to be verified. They need to be challenged.

If we move the discussion away from how the public should consume science and actually talk about science... I could still have a mini rant about statements like these.

[RANT]

I think statements like "Science advances one funeral at a time" and "question the science" does have validity. But they are a poor representation of how the majority of science is done. My concern and irritation is that they become a magnet and dog whistle for 'sceptics'.

Like I say, the reality of modern science is that we stand on the shoulders of giants. Science is by and large an incremental effort of pushing the boundaries. Building on other people's work. Almost every single discipline (as far as I am aware) include something like a literary review or background in their publication template. This is done not only to contextualise the research but also establish an accepted foundation from which the research can proceed (assumptions, existing models... etc). For every one paper that shatters the boundaries and causes a major rethink.... there will be many orders of magnitude more papers that accept the boundary as a given and push it forward just a little further.

The other subtle thing about science that the general public might not be aware about is how difficult it is becoming. It is increasingly the case that groups and not individuals are responsible for major leaps forward. The more you find out, the more you need to invest in finding out the next piece of the puzzle. We have entered an age where science is being conducted in the hive mind. There are a lot of big-wig academics in every niche field... but they are not household names. You have to be part of a niche to know who the giants are - and they are often the head of well resourced groups. I think examples of science titans that became household names, like Einstein or Darwin, will become fewer and farther between.

This is significant because groups of people can iron out individual biases and cross check each other's work before even publishing. Sure, 'groupthink' is a risk but that tends to get challenged in the process. When science spans institutions and even countries, the cost in infrastructure and human resourcing is so high that mistakes are not an option. Look at the LHC or LIGO... or James Webb. There isnt room for error. The assumptions, engineering and objectives of these experiments are damned thorough.

These projects all seek to acquire new information so that we can develop new and better models. Fill in gaps of our knowledge. Their primary objective is not funeral planning.... although the community will embrace and possibly even morn any deaths that occur on the way...

[/RANT]
 
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It is increasingly the case that groups and not individuals are responsible for major leaps forward.

It’s really interesting to see this happening. My part of math is still mostly done by individuals or groups of <= 4 people, but it used to be only done by individuals, and small group collaboration is becoming more and more the norm. And just in the past couple years there have been some larger scale collaborations between mathematicians in specific fields, all working through a wiki of sorts. These latter groups are still pretty rare though.
 
It’s really interesting to see this happening. My part of math is still mostly done by individuals or groups of <= 4 people, but it used to be only done by individuals, and small group collaboration is becoming more and more the norm. And just in the past couple years there have been some larger scale collaborations between mathematicians in specific fields, all working through a wiki of sorts. These latter groups are still pretty rare though.

hopefully that continues.

one thing that has greatly benefitted ML, IMO anyway, is that TONS of it is built on open source and the mentality tends to leak over into the uses of it. and the companies that have the biggest research staffs (other than the notoriously stingy apple) have at least the tendency to share some or most of their work and this has cut down a lot (not solved obv.) on the big "problem" that hard sciences have traditionally faced (and if I understand correctly, oftentimes math too) of disparate groups or individuals working in parallel arriving at a solution to a problem simultaneously when obviously had they been communicating it might have sped things up a fair bit.

I have benefitted pretty significantly from free papers on arxiv myself professionally & personally Im all for it.

but my field is far less academia-centric as big tech companies invest heavily in it.
 
I have benefitted pretty significantly from free papers on arxiv myself professionally & personally Im all for it.

Yea, in some sense journals are now irrelevant, except that they are a metric used in hiring decisions. Basically everything I read is on the arXiv. There’s not much secrecy in my field. It’s more that it’s often difficult to manage large collaborations. It’s often more fun to just think about something with a friend.
 
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A mask only works when they are N95 or above, sterile, and used perfectly each and every time. Which no one is practicing as it’s impractical in the real world
Oh, look who it is - the poster who can't even work out the absolute basics of forum usage so that he can reply to all the questions being posted to him re previous posts. Even if your posts weren't full of really obvious and just plain stupid lies, your being too dumb to work out how to reply to posts would rule you out as anything approaching credible.
 
I have had the fortune of intersecting with several different disciplines.

Medicine is hilarious. Sometimes the authors list can be longer than the publication. Everybody and the kitchen sink are included in the publication 😂

The bulk of my experience is more aligned with @tcmx3: fields dominated by near-term practical (monetisable) outcomes rather than more abstract and perhaps blue-sky ideas.

Publications are authored in small groups typically 2-4. Contributions by a sole author are pretty much non-existent (and would likely be reviewed with caution). There is an inbuilt structure where publications are majority completed by 1-2 lead authors and minority supported by another 1-2 co-authors. In the most cynical (and rare) case, the 1-2 coauthors are there for political reasons and contribute zilch to the output. In milder cases acknowledging certain co-authors is almost a fee for access to opportunity, data and infrastructure. In the best (and in my experience, majority) case the coauthors are intellectual sounding boards. They dont do any of the detail work but are a fountain of ideas for making high-level strategic decisions.

But yeah... in these fields you could rattle off seminal papers and big 'names' that have had a massive impact... ultimately these people will never be important enough for people outside the fields to recognise. And really... while these people are incredibly smart and have had a massive impact... a good portion of that is being in the right place at the right time with the right resources. I think many of these people would be humble enough to concede that. Again this speaks to the idea that progress is adding links to a long chain and that new links are formed in the context of participating with others.

:)
 
Oh, look who it is - the poster who can't even work out the absolute basics of forum usage so that he can reply to all the questions being posted to him re previous posts. Even if your posts weren't full of really obvious and just plain stupid lies, your being too dumb to work out how to reply to posts would rule you out as anything approaching credible.
As satisfying as it may be to call people dumb…

Here’s another fact to dispute this argument. You can increase the effectiveness of surgical masks immensely (I’m gonna post in YouTube awesome as well)

 
Hmmmm …

Well presented positions and arguments.

But I can’t help but thinking that …

I used to believe almost everything … and now I believe almost nothing.

Deliberate lies and the creation of miss-truths have become endemic so as to cause me to turn inward.

Too bad … I wonder if my dad felt this way when he got old.
 
Here’s a case in point … a screen shot of the current page.

5C453D9A-46ED-45CD-BE01-C64E4F453ED7.png

Do you really believe that masks have really made a scintilla of difference in the progression of Covid?

Do you really believe that going to work for Amazon will really “Accelerate your Career”?

Hmmmmmm ….
 
Do you really believe that masks have really made a scintilla of difference in the progression of Covid?

Yes?

I mean, studies indicate they decrease transmission rates. They’re not universally worn, or worn well, so the effect isn’t going to be commensurate with the optimal numbers, but I imagine there’s an effect. It seems hard to believe that anything makes a difference when the pandemic’s so widespread, but the fact that it’s bad doesn’t in any way mean that mitigation measures don’t work. It could be worse, no?
 
Here’s a case in point … a screen shot of the current page.

View attachment 157638

Do you really believe that masks have really made a scintilla of difference in the progression of Covid?

Do you really believe that going to work for Amazon will really “Accelerate your Career”?

Hmmmmmm ….

If masks didn’t work every single Dr. and Nurse in every hospital would have Covid, not to mention every other transmissible disease. So yes, I believe that they at least make a difference.

Unfortunately when only some people are wearing them and then only some of them are wearing them properly or their wearing a bandanna over their face the overall effect gets diminished pretty quickly.
 
If masks didn’t work every single Dr. and Nurse in every hospital would have Covid, not to mention every other transmissible disease. So yes, I believe that they at least make a difference.

Unfortunately when only some people are wearing them and then only some of them are wearing them properly or their wearing a bandanna over their face the overall effect gets diminished pretty quickly.

it is a little rich that that so often people who want to show something "doesn't work" are just able to sabotage it and then look around and say "see I told you so".
 
Climate change is a prime example. Yes politics and money are perverting the discussion. Yes media is throwing fuel on the fire. But if people actually accepted the science, politicians would have a difficult time convincing their constituents to vote for them. Media would have poor subscribership. All this sh!t and pollution in the information space would be laughed off and dismissed as junk.

Same for the antivax movement. Same for the anti-mask crowd. Flat earthers exist in remarkable numbers.

These people are out there. Each time these communities challenge the emergent science (based on their political/cultural/religious philosophies) we depart from an objective reality and waste time arguing about facts.

I have said it many times on KKF: i dont care one iota if you say:
  • I accept climate change is real but I don't want to change the way society is organised - I dont want to do anything about it
  • I accept masks offer varying degrees of protection but I find them uncomfortable and my comfort is more important than increasing the safety of those around me.
These are positions honest and don't attempt to hide their agenda behind some alternate version of an 'objective' reality.Their primary objective is not funeral planning.... although the community will embrace and possibly even morn any deaths that occur on the way...

Your posts deserve a long and thoughtful response, which I may or may not summon the energy for, but you've widened the lens to touch one of my hot buttons so I'm going to risk the ire of the mods for a simple (somewhat off topic) rant.
I really have no clear idea *** is wrong with people (lots!) but their capacity to ignore the obvious absolutely astounds me. I've spent the better part of my life mostly in the US Upper Midwest, save for a 15-year self exile in Northern New England. If you have driven rural roads in this part of the world for decades the reduction in wildlife is absolutely staggering. A drive of 200 miles (322km) in the right season used to leave your car liberally coated with insect strikes. The same drive in the same season today yields maybe a couple dozen at most. The roadsides used to be littered with the carcasses of mostly ground squirrels, plus the occasional racoon, skunk, deer, fox, badger, cats, etc. who were the victims of unfortunate encounters with cars and trucks. A drive that used to pass fifty carcasses now passes maybe six, with ground squirrels, the formerly dominant share, now nearly or totally absent. The bird count on the fence posts and telephone lines paralleling the roads is at least an order of magnitude less than it was in the 1970s. One would think that this would create a torrent of outrage and concern but there is hardly a peep in the popular media or regular civic discourse.
US real wages for men declined by 3% for males in the 50th percentile between 1979 and 2019 and by 7.7% for the bottom tenth percentile, the 90th percentile, the top ten percent, saw a 41.9 percent increase over the same period. The GINI index for the US has risen from 34.5 in 1979 to 41.95 in 2020.
The decline in average lifespan for Americans (males in particular) did not start with covid, although that greatly accelerated it, but rather begin in 2014.
I think one can reasonably argue that "science denial" is simply a marker for a much larger trend toward apathy and willful ignorance, but I believe the deeper currents are roiling with despair and simmering rage. What, if anything, will come of that remains to be seen.
 
I think one can reasonably argue that "science denial" is simply a marker for a much larger trend toward apathy and willful ignorance, but I believe the deeper currents are roiling with despair and simmering rage. What, if anything, will come of that remains to be seen.

This, I believe is the crux of the divide in the US today. It appears that there’s a deeply held belief that some of us are being treated unfairly and that the country is turning into something that no longer fits into what some people think it should be. What will come of this is yet to be seen for sure. My fear is that it’s being driven by anger and fear and could certainly become violent at some point. There are people pushing that narrative so it’s a possibility. I find it a bit strange that the resentment and anger for the so called elite has turned into the denial of science. One can only hope that we can somehow work past this but time will tell.
 
I get the feeling about not believing much on the web. Esp. if they want to lighten your wallet. Learned hard way couple times.

My wife is retired nurse, some of her friends have been on front line all through covid.
One says she wears N95 & a face shield. She said to spray outside of mask with alcohol if using it more than once. When first heard of latest strain being so contagious we up graded
our mask & I put alcohol in small mist bottle.
That was before our counts exploded around Thanksgiving. So feel it was a good move.

If you think mask worn correctly, washing your hands, using using alcohol or gel on surfaces,
Social distance doesn't work you are not alone
Esp. in USA. That is why cases are going through the roof again. Hawaii had to cancel it's bowl game because so many members had covid.
 
It's funny how few people there are that actually disregard the traffic direction on a highway, for sure those rules must be wrong as there are plenty of accidents despite them...

IMO the problem is that many people struggle to cope with new problems, and have issues letting go 'rights' , as in the feeling of entitlement, consciously or sub consciously. Denial is part of the grief process, anger is just the second step...
 
maybe it's easier to pretend COVID (or the threat thereof) doesnt exist than to face the reality that many of us live in a country that has fundamentally broken its social contract.

I guess between the hopelessness that one must deal with when facing the US healthcare system as anything other than a wealthy person (and I dont mean rich I mean wealthy a million or two will be absolutely annihilated in a typical fatal illness if you dont have REALLY good insurance) and just pretending like you're invincible until the very second they pull the plug on your ventilator because you're never coming back up, the latter probably just works better for most people.

the guy who said it got in a lot of trouble but he wasnt wrong when he said "step 1. dont get sick. if you do get sick, die quickly".
 
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The problem of Covid disbelief and anti vaxxers is not US specific, so it probably is something else that causes it...

I am of the opinion that all health care needs to be re thought.. health cannot be 'made' or bought, people will need to be taught more about health and the impact of their doing on it, and we probably cannot afford all the 'high tech magic' we see on TV for everybody even if we wanted/were able to pay for it.
 
I get where you are coming from w.r. to the situation in the US....

My reference to re-thinking health care becuase of cost was targeting ALL health care, not just COVID, I agree that it should not be a major issue to get specific health care for COVID cases funded by government, especially as it has a floating debt ceiling anyhow....

I was thinking about how, just as an example, of how someone living a happy obese life can easily end up with high cholesterol and blood pressure in their forties and later on something like diabetes in their late fifties and finding himself in need of a couple of joint replacements...nothing rare and not over the top expensive on an individual bases UNTIL the n gets large and cost spiral out of control.
 
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Here’s a case in point … a screen shot of the current page.

View attachment 157638

Do you really believe that masks have really made a scintilla of difference in the progression of Covid?

Do you really believe that going to work for Amazon will really “Accelerate your Career”?

Hmmmmmm ….
I live in NYC.
I take public transportation
I eat in restaurants where the table spacing is insanely tight by suburban standards
yes I believe masks save lives
 
That's another thing about information on internet. If you have a health condition you can research it. Not all but many health conditions are directly related to diet. You don't need to take a lot of pills & powders just eat more healthy. Knowledge.

I know couple friends my age & older would rather take medications for type 2 diabetes, high cholesterol, high blood pressure. These are not poor people.

I had pre type 2 & high cholesterol not anymore
Changed my diet. Partly to use myself as a lab rat to see if I could. Also don't like medications that could have side effects.

It wasn't easy at first to give up processed food
Esp. corn & potato chips. Sometimes walk past
Ice Creme freezer or past oatmeal cookies with
withdrawal symptoms. Just found healthy substitutes.
 
The problem of Covid disbelief and anti vaxxers is not US specific, so it probably is something else that causes it...

I am of the opinion that all health care needs to be re thought.. health cannot be 'made' or bought, people will need to be taught more about health and the impact of their doing on it, and we probably cannot afford all the 'high tech magic' we see on TV for everybody even if we wanted/were able to pay for it.
It basically looks like in countries where for one reason or another population doesn't trust the government vaccination levels are low. This doesn't take into consideration the highly vaccinated countries where governments have such control over the population that they can force vaccinations. So you need either totalitarian government or populations that believe in their government. When dealing with a pandemic totalitarian governments are the best, of course this has some other problems, but if all you wanted was the most effective way of dealing with a pandemic full government control is the best.

In the US the culture is to challenge the government and to keep it in check. Not ideal during a pandemic, but not surprising that people don't want to blindly follow what the government is saying. It doesn't help that politicians have been caught lying or misinforming in the last 50 years and in general have shown that they care more about staying in power than about their constituents.
 
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