Preparing for COVID-19

[Midsummer]

My casual online search for information brought me to the Spanish flu... Holy crap, it makes the panic around Covid-19 look like a joke.

To steal bits from sources on the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918:

• It is estimated that one third of the global population was infected
• Estimates put the death toll at 3% to as high as 6% of the global population, all within 18 months
• This flu killed more people in 24 weeks than HIV/AIDS killed in 24 years
• More Americans died of the Spanish flu than in all the wars of the 20th century combined
• The virus triggers an overreaction of the body's immune system, which ravages the bodies of people with stronger immune systems (20 to 40 year olds)
• There were reports of death as quickly as 12 hours after initial symptoms

Here's a short excerpt on the symptoms from a YouTube video:

"In some people Spanish flu caused fevers that were so high people hallucinated. Some writhed in agonised muscle pain so bad, the doctors thought they had Dengue - also called break-bone fever.
It made some people temporarily or even permanently blind, deaf or paralysed. Some lost the ability to smell, some had strong vertigo and would fall over if they tried to walk.
Extreme ear infections developed very quickly - going from the first pain to the eardrums rupturing within only a few hours. Some had terrible headaches and double vision."

"Severe mucous secretions and inflammation made it hard for victims to breathe. Some people coughed so hard they tore their abdominal muscles. Doctors doing autopsies saw lungs so damaged that they resembled those of people who died from poisonous gas in the war. Some people developed a symptom most physicians had never seen before - tiny puffs of air would leak out from tears in the lungs and get trapped beneath the skin, puffing up in little pockets all over their bodies. When they moved, the pockets would crackle like a bowl of rice-crispies, according to one nurse."

"Some people developed hemorrhagic fever which, like Ebola, cause it's victims to bleed. An army report described the flu as a rapidly escalating infection and lungs choked with blood, fatal in from 24 to 48 hours. Some people bled from their nose, their ears, and their eyes. Some people with the 1918 flu became so oxygen-starved they began to turn blue or even looked black - a condition called cyanosis. People reportedly turned so dark that it was difficult to distinguish white people from people of colour. For this reason the flu picked up the nickname the Blue Death, and many wondered if the Black Death had returned. When people began turning blue, doctors knew they wouldn't survive more than a few hours."

"The flu was also terrifying because it could kill so quickly. Many victims died within a day or two, or even hours of showing their first symptoms."

- Source link​

The death toll is commonly quoted as more than WW1 and WW2 combined. Just a hair over 100years ago and most people don't even know it happened.

 

[Luftmensch]

My casual online search for information brought me to the Spanish flu.

Definitely. For those who are anxious about this disease, flip the thought on its head. We drift through life taking for granted how bad the flu is...

 

[Michi]

Here's a short excerpt on the symptoms from a YouTube video

Well, it is a good thing then that corona virus is nothing like that, isn't it?

 

[Matus]

The death toll is commonly quoted as more than WW1 and WW2 combined. Just a hair over 100years ago and most people don't even know it happened.

Even back then it did not get a lasting attention - mainly because it went through local regions rather quickly and many who died were still out of home. Also because of the timing.

 

[Matus]

The Italian government has put the whole Lombardy - 16 million people- under lockdown after surge in new cases.

 

[Codered]

Stop comparing this to common flu. When the mortality was 1% it was 10 times that of common flu. Since then the world health organization anounced that the 1% value was biased and reported optimisticaly by the Chinese and that the real number is around 3.5% or more. Also the percentage varies on age groups and undelying health issues. If you are 80+ the mortality is almost certain. If you are 60-65 the mortality is 15-20%. This means that 1 in 5 above 60 will die. The death is caused by pneumonia. Which builds liquid within lungs and infection. So the death feels like drowning( quite painful and terrible). And the doctors can only try to help the symptoms not treat it.
Also the medical care quality depends on number of cases. If there are hundreds they can try to treat. But if you have hundreds of thousand they most likely will focus on the dying.

 

[PalmRoyale]

This is at the train station in Milan last night. All these people are leaving the city heading south before the lock down. I just don't understand how they can be so blind and selfish. They will take the virus with them to the south and infect their parents and grandparents, precisely the age group you don't want to catch the virus.

The lock down was leaked btw by a journalist. He or she should immediately be locked up and given a long jail sentence and an enormous fine. How the hell can someone be so indifferent to human life that they would do this.

 

[Michi]

Since then the world health organization anounced that the 1% value was biased and reported optimisticaly by the Chinese and that the real number is around 3.5% or more.

Hmmm… Looking at https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

China: 3.8%
South Korea: 0.7%
Iran: 2.5%
Japan: 1.3%
Malaysia: 0%

Italy: 3.9%
Germany: 0%
France: 1.4%
Spain: 1.2%
Switzerland: 0.4%
United Kingdom: 0.01%
Netherlands: 0.05%

United States: 3.9%
Canada: 0%
Ecuador: 0%
Brazil: 0%

Note that this is the number of fatalities vs the reported cases. There are many more unreported cases of infections, meaning that the actual mortality rate is much lower than what is suggested by these figures.

Also the percentage varies on age groups and undelying health issues. If you are 80+ the mortality is almost certain.

I don't know where you get that from. Looking at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/, it appears that mortality rate for 80+ year olds is around 20%. I would call that quite a long way from "almost certain."

If you are 60-65 the mortality is 15-20%.

That figure appears to be inaccurate. The real figure looks like being around 3.6%.

The death is caused by pneumonia. Which builds liquid within lungs and infection. So the death feels like drowning( quite painful and terrible). And the doctors can only try to help the symptoms not treat it.

Hmmm… Why did you post this? What is the point? To make people feel better? It seems not. To make people worry more by posting grossly inflated mortality rates and emphasising how unpleasant a death this will be? For what it's worth, while we have hospital beds, people will generally die quietly and pain-free, thanks to very effective analgesics.

Maybe try again? Next time, with accurate figures?

 

[Midsummer]

Stop comparing this to common flu. When the mortality was 1% it was 10 times that of common flu. Since then the world health organization anounced that the 1% value was biased and reported optimisticaly by the Chinese and that the real number is around 3.5% or more. Also the percentage varies on age groups and undelying health issues. If you are 80+ the mortality is almost certain. If you are 60-65 the mortality is 15-20%. This means that 1 in 5 above 60 will die. The death is caused by pneumonia. Which builds liquid within lungs and infection. So the death feels like drowning( quite painful and terrible). And the doctors can only try to help the symptoms not treat it.
Also the medical care quality depends on number of cases. If there are hundreds they can try to treat. But if you have hundreds of thousand they most likely will focus on the dying.

There have been two large scale studies from China that have analyzed the case fatality ratio from large populations. The first had a rate of 2.3 % and the second a rate of 1.4%. I have no reference as to what some government official has reported.

Actually the "Flu" like the corona virus is actually a family of viruses. The influenza viruses can have different case fatality ratio's. The most common case fatality rates are in the ~0.1% range. Some strains (viral subgroups like H1N1) have higher case fatality rates. The Spanish flu has been estimated to have ~3% case fatality rate. The flu causes respiratory and systemic symptoms. It is spread by fomites and respiratory droplets. It predominantly affects those with weakened immune systems (children, elders and pregnant women). It causes pneumonia as well.

Corona viruses generally causes mild cold like symptoms. It is spread by fomites and respiratory droplets. The case fatality rate of the most common types is so low it is generally not reported. It attacks elders in particular and appears to not bother the children so much. We do not have enough information about its effects on pregnant women to make a judgement at this time. Some strains are particularly lethal (SARS CoV-1, MERS).

I actually see a lot of parallels here.

The best way to deal with this is to maintain a level head and do our homework; just like with just about everything in this world. The current virus in circulation (SARS-CoV2) was only discovered to exist early December of 2019. Public health organizations throughout out the world have been doing their best to prepare for just such a situation (It has never been a question of "if" and always a question of "when" such a virus would arise). That is why they immediately came out with recommendations for the public on what to do. These general recommendations are designed to minimize the damage to the population as a whole, while we study and deploy new strategies for this particular threat.

What threatens the public most is panic. When they panic they fail to observe basic rules of hygiene and disease spread. Panic is caused by fear and fear is caused by ignorance. Please just observe the basic rules of hygiene. Nature has brought us a new foe. She always has and always will. Be smart while we look for better ways to combat this virus. And in the immortal words of Billy Preston "love the one you're with".

 

[Matus]

@Michi - even Spanish flu had huge variations in mortality rates (0.1% - 6 and more) partly because different parts if the world were hit with different strains under different circumstances.

For countries with few infected the virus did not necessarily reach wider demographics, so the fatality rates may change. This outbreak has reached a point where it needs to be taken seriously, even if number of lives lost is ‘just’ a few thousands and thus small compared to fatalities caused by common flu over the same period of time.

 

[labor of love]

 

[Michi]

This outbreak has reached a point where it needs to be taken seriously, even if number of lives lost is ‘just’ a few thousands and thus small compared to fatalities caused by common flu over the same period of time.

Right. I'm absolutely not suggesting that we shouldn't take it seriously. It clearly is serious, and it probably is the worst health threat to humanity since the Spanish Flu.

At the same time, panic won't help us. Neither will fear, uncertainty, and doubt. What will help us is making decisions based on good data and facts. What will also help is listening to the advice of the experts. (Note to the uninitiated: the Melbourne Truth and the NY Post are not experts.)

What won't help us is buying more toilet paper, or pointing out that almost everyone above 80 years of age will die when, as a matter of fact, that appears to be very far removed from the truth.

Humanity will come out the other side of this, beyond a shadow of doubt. Maybe a little bit battered, but far from beaten. Provided we don't go and beat ourselves first, which we are wont to do…

 

[Kippington]

@Michi Spanish flu had huge variations in mortality rates (0.1% - 6 and more)...

The Vanuatu archipelago suffered 90% mortality and 20 of its local languages went extinct.
In Okak and Hebron the mortality rate was 70%.
In Samoa and Sandwich Bay, the deaths attributable to influenza were estimated to have been about 23% of the entire population.

My point of bringing this up is I think that Covid-19, even at its worst case scenario, will not be as bad as the Spanish flu of 1918... and people tend to forget it even existed.

 

[Matus]

Yes - there were indeed areas hit very badly with the Spanish flu - interestingly most of the time it were indigenous people or some other more closed communities. Maybe they were lacking exposure to some more common strains before and thus reacted differently.

I agree that Covid-19 does not seem to have the same potential, but one can not know whether a new strain shows up a few months later (like it did with Spanish flu) and may turn much more deadly. Let's hope not.

I am 100% anti-panic. Panic is NEVER a reaction that saves lives. Depending on how the disease will develop different governments will apply different measures and the best one can do is to comply and apply common sense.

 

[chinacats]

Most interesting to me about Spanish flu ws that first year wasn't so bad...went away over summer and came back super deadly.

 

[Codered]

You might think i am overreacting but in Italy 133 died in the last 24h and 1250 new cases. The fatalities will grow with numbers because there are not so many doctors and respirators to help so many patients. What we can do at this moment is to look at what happened with the spanish flu in history and learn from it. We should asume and prepare for the worst. Because i can see people minimizim the risks, going out in crowded places and not wearing masks. Just washing hands will not help because you already touched your clothes pockets door knobs. Best thing would be if there are cases in your town to avoid going out and work remotely or try to go to your summer house and try to keep away from crowds and contact. Better safe than sorry.

 

[lowercasebill]

You are not overreacting. There are way too many unknowns to not take this seriously. At almost 69 i am limiting my exposure to public places. I wore gloves at the grocery store friday . I made my first batch of hand sanitizer today. More or less i practice sterile technique outside my house. I wipe down the cigarette packages in the car. And so on.
At this point we don't really know the rate of spread and there is always the chance of increased virulence. Although bacterial not viral bubonic vs pneumonic plague is a good lesson as is the spanish flu. From what i have read it was the spanish flu and not victory that ended WWI.
There are hand wipes on the stove next to the door. Everyone who enters uses them there are surface wipes there as well and i do the door knobs. I am retired but my son practices he brought me the flu.. We did not hug or shake hands and he did not cough or sneeze but he touched everything. While 10 days on the sofa was not fun nor was the day i was afraid it was a good and timely lesson for which i am grateful. Also i got to buy that Japanese cap cutter .
Since we are scattered all over the world it may be a good idea that we post our local conditions?
I am in Southeast PA USA. 2 cases in my County 5 schools closed 5 miles as the crow flies from my house.

 

[podzap]

My preparation? Buy lots of pork chops. Just went to a Bryan Adams concert last night with my wife. Went out to supermarkets the past few days. Working in a large office building with people from all over the planet. If I get sick, I'm going to buy a few litres of whisky and head to the sauna.

 

[labor of love]

No infections in my state yet. So since their really isn’t much hysteria I took the opportunity to buy up all the toilet paper and sanitizer I could. Cottonelle will be treated like dammy Katos in the next 6 monthes. Will be posting a FS thread soon on non knife BST with heavy markups on all products please don’t mention it in flipper alert thread.
Thanks

 

[ian]

So why is everyone buying toilet paper? Just because everyone assumes everyone else is going to stock up on it? I'm not sure I understand the emphasis. I mean, I guess it's essential, but so are a billion other things. And it's not like you'd go through like 20 rolls in the amount of time you were sick or something.

 

[labor of love]

So why is everyone buying toilet paper? Just because everyone assumes everyone else is going to stock up on it? I'm not sure I understand the emphasis. I mean, I guess it's essential, but so are a billion other things. And it's not like you'd go through like 20 rolls in the amount of time you were sick or something.

Toilet paper isn’t essential at all. I know that’s a weird thing to say but if we’re talking serious prepping for the long haul, it should be close to the bottom of the list.

 

[lowercasebill]

As i understand it the toilet paper craze started in japan due to the mistaken belief that toilet paper came from china and would be unavailable shortly.
My area has not had a run on that or paper towels. Hand sanitzer and rubbing alcohol have been gone for a week.

 

[Matus]

One lady in Germany made a mistake when stocking up on toilet paper and now has garage literally filled with it.

My sister works at the largest hospital in Czechia. Few days back a Chinese national who just arrived from Italy walked in - after a long commute with public transport - with a fever! Caused an alarm, but turned out not to be infected with Corona.

We just cancelled our trip to Prague - to simply limit possible exposure on both sides (as the infection is already on both sides)

I am expecting more measures to be taken if the infection keeps spreading. Working for a big-ish company where there is a lot of personal contact may prove problematic eventually.

 

[lowercasebill]

One lady in Germany made a mistake when stocking up on toilet paper and now has garage literally filled with it.

My sister works at the largest hospital in Czechia. Few days back a Chinese national who just arrived from Italy walked in - after a long commute with public transport - with a fever! Caused an alarm, but turned out not to be infected with Corona.

We just cancelled our trip to Prague - to simply limit possible exposure on both sides (as the infection is already on both sides)

I am expecting more measures to be taken if the infection keeps spreading. Working for a big-ish company where there is a lot of personal contact may prove problematic eventually.

Just be safe

 

[bahamaroot]

Interesting read from the KKF WHO authorities.

 

[ian]

Interesting read from the KKF WHO authorities.

Some people get their news from the New York Times. Some people watch The Daily Show. I come to KKF, the leading edge of pointed journalism.

 

[Kippington]

One lady in Germany made a mistake when stocking up on toilet paper and now has garage literally filled with it.

The same thing happened in Australia, it happened just before the panic - she accidentally ordered 48 boxes instead of her normal 48 rolls. Who's laughing now?

I am expecting more measures to be taken if the infection keeps spreading.

Unfortunately, it's no longer a question of "if"...

Some good news is that China has been very effective at minimising the spread. They suffered the first known cases in an extremely busy city, and it would've spread like crazy well before anyone even knew of it's existence. China had a huge time disadvantage to act when compared to the rest of the world, but of course they also have a more draconian government than most Western countries which they used to their advantage.

The bad news is that other countries might not taking it as seriously as they should. Lessons in the past are a good reminder:

- In late 1918 Philadelphia officials ignored warnings of the Spanish Flu, downplaying the threat
- On September 28, 200,000 people gathered for the Liberty Loan parade
- Just days after the parade, 635 new cases of influenza were reported. Two days later, the city was forced to admit that epidemic conditions did indeed exist.
- In the next few months, Philadelphia lost nearly 13,000 citizens.​

 

[WildBoar]

A friend of mine leads a weekly group of older adults in a weekly gathering to discuss political stuff, etc. at a local university. Yesterday i spent a few hours at his house going through car parts he needs to sell/ give away, since he and his wife now live in an elderly condo building. We spent quality time in close quarters, and of course his very bad seasonal allergies were out in full force due to the budding trees, etc. So picture a lot of runny nose wiping, sneezing, etc.

Lat night he found out an attendee at the last gathering had been at the conservative political convention where it is now known that one of the attendees had the virus (it was not apparent at the time). It was supposedly a big conference, and included an appearance by the VP of the US. So literally 4 hours after I got back home my friend had the news to pass on to me. And by that point I had already been to a restaurant for dinner with my wife, and then spent over an hour with my 77+ year old father and my 7 year old son. And my friend had spent a few days back in the condo building, among many who are a bit older and/ or weaker than he is.

So did the guy with the virus spread it to the guy who attended my friend's gathering? And if so, did it leak to my friend? If so, some at his condo building could be in trouble, and I am also screwed, as there is no way in heck I did not come in contact with something during the hours I was at his house. And if it made it to me, did it pass to anyone at the restaurant last night? Or to my wife, son or father? Should I lock myself up until there is enough time for something to appear? How many other people have interacted with people who were in the vicinity of someone who is now known to have the virus? The rate at which things can spread due to the lag until symptoms show up mean there is no way in heck to effectively contain this in a free society. Slow it, yes. But keep it from spreading, no. For now I have proceed in a normal fashion, and hope the person my friend was in contact with dies not show symptoms in the next few days.

Switching gears, and assuming I did not catch anything, we have a trip during my son's spring break that is already paid for. The destination has no cases at this point, but in a few weeks I would be surprised if that did not change. And if it doesn't, maybe they don't want people from the DC area traveling to their city. I booked the trip a while back, and supposedly I am far outside the window of getting to cancel the plane tickets. I can get back most of the hotel cost, but three plane tickets represents a bit more $ than the hotel cost. We also having to hold off booking an overseas trip, as who knows what the conditions will be here in the US, at the airport where we would have to change planes, and at the final destination. Kinda need to put life outside of work and my son's school on hold for a few months, possibly.

 

[Kippington]

@WildBoar
A bit of a shock no doubt, but you are probably fine.

The covid-19 symptoms are sore throat/cough and fever. The sneezing makes it sound distinctly hayfeverish. Add two levels of separation plus the short timeframes (lesser chances of pre-symptomatic transmission) and you're sitting pretty.

Get tested if reasonable to do so, if not there's not a lot to do other than ride out the next few days being extra hygienic towards others and seeing if any symptoms pop up.

Disclaimer: I'm no doctor or expert, I'm just trying to help you have a better piece of mind with sensible reasoning.

 

[Marek07]

Toilet paper isn’t essential at all. I know that’s a weird thing to say but if we’re talking serious prepping for the long haul, it should be close to the bottom of the list.

Me thinks toilet paper is very close to the bottom...