Preparing for COVID-19

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As i started this i feel somewhat responsible. There is a reason the cdc and who say hand sanitation and hand washing with sanitation ALWAYS being first. Once you leave the house if you dont sanitize your doomed. Given the virus lives for up to 9 days on metal and plastic your car your door knobs and the faucet knobs are contaminated. Washing when you return home leaves your hands clean until you turn off the faucet. at that point you are contaminated again and then you unzip....
My credentials..... 41 years practicing sterile technique.
Also most of us do not have dirty hands and our homes are not dirty. Yes bleach and other sanitizers are less effective in the presence of dirt (blood and body fluids) how much dirt is on your cupboard handles?
Sanitize before you get back in the truck.. I wipe down every thing that comes into my house .
Be safe be smart
 
I've read a number of references to the duration of the virus on surfaces being 9 days. I don't have any idea of the source of such "facts" but believe the most recent studies have established the likelihood that it's at most about half that.

"The experiment was led by researchers from Princeton, UCLA and the National Institutes of Health. The researchers involved set out to learn how long the virus can survive when sprayed on different surfaces and in the air.

"They found that the virus can survive up to three days on plastic and stainless steel, and up to 24 hours on cardboard, and up to four hours on copper surfaces. In a second part of the experiment, the researchers used a spray can-like device to spritz the virus into the air and discovered that the virus can survive suspended in a fine mist for up to three hours, though longer times were not tested."
 
There are a lot of false claims that the virus can "live" up to 9 days on some surfaces. First of, one can argue all day long if a virus is actually alive or not since its just a bunch of nucleic acid wrapped up in ball of proteins. The reason for the "9 days" is probably the limit of the test they use, Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RTPCR), which is very sensitive and can detect the smallest amount of viral rna. But just because the can detect the viral rna dosen't mean there was an actual infectious viron.

Corona type virus does seem to remain infectious on surfaces for a long time (2-3 days at most) though, which is why its important to constantly disinfect stuff.
 
The highest case mortality rates seem to be in places where hospitals became overwhelmed. This is probably much more important than demographics. This makes sense as about 14% of people need oxygen (i.e.: hospitalization), 5% Need ventilation (i.e.: ICU) and 2% need ECMO (heart lung bypass) or they will die. If there are too many sick people, many won't be able to get the care they need and will therefore die.

Mortality rate in Hubei is around 4.5%. Similar pattern for Italy and Iran.

Mortality rate for the rest of China is around 0.9% South Korea about 0.6%. Neither were overwhelmed.

Social distancing, Hubei style stops the virus spreading. More lax social distancing will slow it and possibly allow the health system to keep up. The earlier that social distancing is instituted, the more effective it is. On Jan 21 in Hubei, there were less than 100 reported new cases. The lockdown occurred on Jan 23 when there were only 300 reported new cases per day. Retrospective analysis indicates that there were 1500 actual new infections on Jan 21 and 2500 new infections on Jan 23. Although the reported new cases continued to rise until Feb 3, the actual new infections immediately plateued (between 2500-3000 each day between Jan 24-28) then began to drop rapidly.

Hubei's health care system was still overwhelmed depite building 2 new hospitals. This suggests that you need to lockdown before you get to 100 new reported cases per day if you want to avoid your hospitals becoming overwhelmed.

I hope that everybody stays safe.
 
ian said:
But @inferno, I think it’s missing the whole point to say that you can’t do anything about it, so you should just live your life as usual. Taking some simple precautions can decrease your chances of contracting it significantly. And moreover, if you do take these precautions, you’re contributing (in some small way) to taming the spread of the disease. Ie, if everyone does this, then there will actually be fewer deaths. Instead, you’re posting “don’t worry about it, just live life as usual”, which will contribute to the spread. (Well, at least it would if a significant number of people read this thread and took your advice.) Anyway, this is all obvious.
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No ****. You would think that taking a few minor steps each day to help reduce the potential of catching/ spreading would be a no-brainer. Versus 'too effing bad, I'm not changing anything and I do not care if I pass anything on to you". That is an effin shtty attitude if you ask me.
 
larrybard said:
They found that the virus can survive up to three days on plastic and stainless steel, and up to 24 hours on cardboard, and up to four hours on copper surfaces. In a second part of the experiment, the researchers used a spray can-like device to spritz the virus into the air and discovered that the virus can survive suspended in a fine mist for up to three hours, though longer times were not tested."
Click to expand...

Heads up AFAIK this is a limited test for airborne only transmission . Nebulizer means water droplets or whateve is meant to recreat breathing or possible sneezing. This is not the only way to transmit the pathogen, since it pysically sheds as well. Environmental contamination can happen several ways and its not inconsitent to say one way is 1-3 days and other ways are 2-9 days. {etc}, so the test results are not necesssarily exaustive of the whole spectrum of possibilites.

For example....A normal bathroom could be easily contaminated by (1) aersolized/airborne transmission, and that (1) could last 3 hours in the air and 3 days on the stainless steel surfaces. Its also likewise possible that (2) the bathroom is soiled by fecal contamination whcih could last for 2-9 days on surfaces unless the physical dirt is cleans and later disinfected.

My interpretation could be wrong, of course, but I would ask anyone reading this cover this broader spectrum of possibilities.
 
inferno said:
there is nothing neither you nor me can do to really prevent it.
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Don't be so fatalistic....

ian said:
But @inferno, I think it’s missing the whole point to say that you can’t do anything about it, so you should just live your life as usual. Taking some simple precautions can decrease your chances of contracting it significantly. And moreover, if you do take these precautions, you’re contributing (in some small way) to taming the spread of the disease. Ie, if everyone does this, then there will actually be fewer deaths. Instead, you’re posting “don’t worry about it, just live life as usual”, which will contribute to the spread. (Well, at least it would if a significant number of people read this thread and took your advice.) Anyway, this is all obvious.
Click to expand...

+1. Elegantly put.

@inferno, read literally you are correct; we can't prevent the spread. But you are incorrect on the tone of your post... we can slow the spread. This is the whole point of increasing public awareness of hygiene, encouraging social distancing... and eventually shutting cities down. These measures reduce the transmission of the disease.

Read up on the basic reproduction number (R0). This is what it is all about... By slowing the spread we can stretch out our hospital resources and ensure people who need critical care are more likely to get it. When you reach the point where there are more critically ill than facilities to take care of them, triaging will take place. This is a nasty place to be in - people who may have survived with a little boost are now more likely to die.

Where you are correct is; we don't need to lose our nerve over this. The more at risk you are, the more serious you aught consider preventative measures.
 
... another rambling thought....

Going back to the basic reproduction number. It is situations like these where we all aught to reflect on what we want out of our governments**. Policies like universal health care and sick leave are as much about public health (reducing R0) as they are about care for the individual. In crises like this, policies such as income assistance so that people can self-quarantine without going bankrupt should exist. Forcing people to choose between public health and their own financial interests is a losing recipe in a pandemic.

** Trying not to be too political here :p
 
Politics aside that is what is happening here as the county is basically on lockdown. And then there is the conundrum.... Please stay home and don't forget support the local businesses. :(
 
Since you asked:

lowercasebill said:
I would like to ask you all to identify your country state county for the benefit of us all.
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Australia.

It is perhaps less interesting to talk about the infection numbers here than how the authorities are responding. Off the top of my head:
  • Australia does not have widespread infection. It is (currently) documented to be in all but one state/territory.
  • Travel ban for China, Iran, Italy and South Korea (foreign nationals coming into Australia)
  • 'Do not travel' recommendation for these countries (Australians leaving)
  • General recommendation of no unnecessary travel
  • Advice to limit events to 500 people
  • Doctors are calling for large events to be banned - currently it is just advice and the response is voluntary. Some sports events are running televised with empty stadiums, others are packed full.
  • ~$17B AUD economic stimulus as the economy is in a parlous state
  • More companies preparing for their staff to work from home
  • No cities have been 'shut down' (an unlikely scenario here I think)
 
Iran has political motivations for wanting to keep information about what’s happening there somewhat concealed. It relates to sanctions, medical supplies, political leverage that can be used against them and the continuing failure of diplomacy between them and other countries. It’s all very political and shouldn’t be discussed here.
But yes, I agree that the degree to which the virus is spreading there is not certain and is that intentional.
 
Just be aware that some countries or places do not keep the statistics up to date. Good or bad if you tabulate the numbers it will show. There are worse virus around but they are controled like influenza which sometimes is similar to this. Keep the good hygiene and keep vitamins and good defense in your body. Stay sharp and stay safe.
 
My state has state run liquor stores since the state buys we are the largest purchaser of alcoholic beverages in the world .
Prices are higher than anywhere else in the U.S.
that said normal hours tommorow limited hrs monday and closed until further notice beginning Tues
 
Luftmensch said:
Since you asked:



Australia.

It is perhaps less interesting to talk about the infection numbers here than how the authorities are responding. Off the top of my head:
  • Australia does not have widespread infection. It is (currently) documented to be in all but one state/territory.
  • Travel ban for China, Iran, Italy and South Korea (foreign nationals coming into Australia)
  • 'Do not travel' recommendation for these countries (Australians leaving)
  • General recommendation of no unnecessary travel
  • Advice to limit events to 500 people
  • Doctors are calling for large events to be banned - currently it is just advice and the response is voluntary. Some sports events are running televised with empty stadiums, others are packed full.
  • ~$17B AUD economic stimulus as the economy is in a parlous state
  • More companies preparing for their staff to work from home
  • No cities have been 'shut down' (an unlikely scenario here I think)
Click to expand...

I'm also in Australia and I work in healthcare.

I'm very concerned that the Federal Government's advice is vastly inadequate to nip this in the bud. I just watched the federal Minister for Health and the federal Chief Medical Officer interviewed on TV. My take is that they essentially said that there is currently very little risk in Australia but they will let us know when there is. I feel as though they are being a bit blasé. The Chief Medical Officer actually said that it's still OK to go to the movies and to shake hands. I shake my head.

Australia has ~250 known cases today, the vast majority of which have had overseas travel or direct Covid contact. However, testing in Australia has been heavily restricted to:
1) People returning from China, South Korea and Iran who have gone on to develop symptoms
2) Direct contacts of known cases who have gone on to develop symptoms.
So there has been no way to detect community spread. It's like we are shining a torch on the highest risk group but the status rest of the population can't be seen, so we have no warning when community spread takes off, as it inevitably will (or has). There is most likely an iceberg of community spread which is still under the radar. The first we will know of it is when large numbers of people die.

It's likely that there is already or very soon will be significant under the radar community spread of the disease. If you wait until there are widespread deaths or even widespread recognised cases before you institute a lockdown, you have missed the boat:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

(Edited to add: this article is not written by an epidemiologist and is not peer reviewed, so should be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism, if not a grain of salt. Having said that, the underlying numbers and conclusions do seem to be playing out to an extent).

I have cancelled 2 education meetings in the last week. I'm highly exposed in my area of healthcare so I have isolated myself from my family. We have pulled our children out of school.

Even if there is not yet widespread community transmission, a travel ban to a few countries is currently inadequate. The virus is spreading worldwide. In fact China and South Korea have almost controlled community spread with stringent social distancing and may at this stage be safer than many countries which are not banned. Our Home Affairs minister recently returned from the USA and developed Covid19 a few days later.

I will be amazed if a lockdown doesn't occur at some stage. Earlier is much much much much much better. For health outcomes and for how quickly the economy will recover. Every day counts. You cannot allow your hospitals to become overwhelmed or many people (including many heath care professionals) will die.

I suspect that this disease will be a massive hit to the economy. I'd be very surprised and relieved if there is not a recession. $17B will be a drop in the ocean if the disease becomes widespread.

I'm pretty worried that the tsunami will hit soon. It looks to me like the water is receding into the ocean. I am certainly not as blazé as our Department of Health appears to be. Nor are many of my colleagues.
 
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bkultra said:
Pretty sure if alcohol is the key, I'm untouchable.
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I appreciate the humour here.

However, on a more serious note, I am going to severely restrict alcohol intake until this pandemic is waning, for 2 reasons:
1) I'm going to be working my backside off for probably 6-9 months so I'm going to get run down and I'll need to look after myself as much as possible.
2) I want to be as healthy as I can when I get exposed.
 
Nemo said:
I appreciate the humour here.

However, on a more serious note, I am going to severely restrict alcohol intake until this pandemic is waning, for 2 reasons:
1) I'm going to be working my backside off for probably 6-9 months so I'm going to get run down and I'll need to look after myself as much as possible.
2) I want to be as healthy as I can when I get exposed.
Click to expand...

I second that. For me, 8 hrs of sleep every night, regular vitamin D (I had low levels when last checked), regular exercise, eating/drinking healthier than usual. I feel for healthcare workers, who need such self care more than anyone. I hope you have the time for adequate sleep.
 
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