Covid: the shape of things to come

[user 16756]

also real talk you are aware that the word "retarded' to refer to someone's mental capacity is extremely offensive right?

since you used a number substitution when you typed it Im going to guess you do...

 

[Nemo]

@inferno , by all means express your opinion. But please keep it friendly. Or at least polite.

 

[inferno]

@inferno before you celebrate you will need to demonstrate that outcomes for vaccinated people are, as a group, the same severity as those for unvaccinated people.

also your interpretation of vaccinated vs unvaccinated rates in Denmark is highly spurious. you are doing simple proportions but in order for that to work even in a frequentist sense again you need to demonstrate a few assumptions hold, the biggest of which is that there isnt significant self-selection bias in who is getting vaccinated and that the subsequent patterns of behavior are identical and I gotta tell you I dont think you're gonna be able to demonstrate that.

if you want to interpret things that way on a forum I cant stop you but if you tried to pass that off on any team of statisticians you'd be laughed out of the room.

i'm not celebrating jack ****. i'm just stating that when viruses mutate the waxx wont work anymore. and that is has been known for a good 100 years or so...

but somehow people think the corona is different. but we are lucky with this one. or maybe not that lucky, since it behaves just like every other virus on this planet: it get more infectious, but less dangerous. the more it mutates. NO ONE has died from omicron. ever. but for sure it will happen. just let this **** into the old peoples care homes and you will get results! no question about that that.

i just follow tha data man. "trust the science". the real science. that is.

 

[inferno]

@inferno , by all means express your opinion. But please keep it friendly. Or at least polite.

i felt what i wrote was justified.

 

[inferno]

@inferno , by all means express your opinion. But please keep it friendly. Or at least polite.

just wanted to stop the madness once and for all. with real science.

 

[inferno]

that on top of that. has been known for about 100 years.

 

[inferno]

sorry to piss on peoples parade. but thtis is how it works. and it was what all people in the know. actually did know from the start.
the vaxx is a completely worthless POS.

questions on that?? look in the 2 link posted above.

 

[M1k3]

i'm not celebrating jack ****. i'm just stating that when viruses mutate the waxx wont work anymore. and that is has been known for a good 100 years or so...

but somehow people think the corona is different. but we are lucky with this one. or maybe not that lucky, since it behaves just like every other virus on this planet: it get more infectious, but less dangerous. the more it mutates. NO ONE has died from omicron. ever. but for sure it will happen. just let this **** into the old peoples care homes and you will get results! no question about that that.

i just follow tha data man. "trust the science". the real science. that is.

How did the polio vaccine work?

 

[inferno]

Nemo.

i understand that not all people will like this chunk of data. because it goes completely against everything they have been told now for almost 2 years.
but this is how it really works. and this is real data from the .gov of denmark and norway. the most uncorrupted (or maybe non corrupted) countries in the world. you do the math.

 

[inferno]

How did the polio vaccine work?

maybe you can tell me?
from what i've heard they ------------------ and maybe killed millions of people?
not at all read into the polio vaccine. but as far as i know its actually a real vaccine. that kinda PREVENTS you from getting polio.

 

[Nemo]

Nemo.

i understand that not all people will like this chunk of data. because it goes completely against everything they have been told now for almost 2 years.
but this is how it really works. and this is real data from the .gov of denmark and norway. the most uncorrupted (or maybe non corrupted) countries in the world. you do the math.

Huh???

I'm just asking you to be civil while expressing your opinions, please.

 

[gregfisk]

Inferno, what you seem to be ignoring is that the vaccines do work in keeping people from dying. If you look at the data I linked to earlier today you will see the reality of that fact. No, the vaccines don’t keep you from getting the virus and they don’t keep you from spreading it, not in the absolute sense anyway. But what they do do is keep you from dying, keep the potency of what you spread lower, like wearing a mask and keep the virus from mutating as easily. Your assumption that the vaccines are useless is completely false because they are keeping people alive. And the other false statement you made is that the vaccines are not working with the omicron variant. They absolutely are working, provided you get the third shot. The bottom line here is that if everyone would just get vaccinated we wouldn’t have to be worrying about these new variants nearly as much and the world would be a much safer place to live.

 

[user 16756]

fantastic example of knowing just enough about stats to be dangerous.

 

[Michi]

so now the vaxxed are getting infected MORE than unvaxxed!

That should not come as a surprise. Of course the number of vaccinated people getting Covid will eventually exceed the number of unvaccinated getting Covid, because the vaccine is not perfect and there are fewer and fewer easy targets for the virus. In a country with 100% vaccination rate, everyone who gets Covid is vaccinated.

So what? A much more interesting question is to ask what would have happened if people didn’t get vaccinated. We have answers to these questions. Vaccinated people are about ten times less likely to require hospitalization after infection, and about 16 times less likely to die from it. Would you prefer to have 16 times the number of dead people that we actually have?

 

[ian]

That should not come as a surprise. Of course the number of vaccinated people getting Covid will eventually exceed the number of unvaccinated getting Covid, because the vaccine is not perfect and there are fewer and fewer easy targets for the virus. In a country with 100% vaccination rate, everyone who gets Covid is vaccinated.

So what? A much more interesting question is to ask what would have happened if people didn’t get vaccinated. We have answers to these questions. Vaccinated people are about ten times less likely to require hospitalization after infection, and about 16 times less likely to die from it. Would you prefer to have 16 times the number of dead people that we actually have?

I think his point was that in that example, 14% of the infected were unvaccinated, but 20% of the overall population is unvaccinated. So that particular data point is in his favor. But there are tons of actual studies showing that they’re effective, so I’m not saying his argument is convincing.

It’s true that the quote that @inferno was initially responding to, about the vaccines working just as well with the variants, was a little strong, as they seem to work worse than before. But they’re still very helpful and we should all get them!

 

[gregfisk]

That should not come as a surprise. Of course the number of vaccinated people getting Covid will eventually exceed the number of unvaccinated getting Covid, because the vaccine is not perfect and there are fewer and fewer easy targets for the virus. In a country with 100% vaccination rate, everyone who gets Covid is vaccinated.

So what? A much more interesting question is to ask what would have happened if people didn’t get vaccinated. We have answers to these questions. Vaccinated people are about ten times less likely to require hospitalization after infection, and about 16 times less likely to die from it. Would you prefer to have 16 times the number of dead people that we actually have?

YES ^^^^^^ What Michi said.

3 people live together, they all get Covid.

(1) There are two times as many people with Covid who are vaccinated than people who aren’t vaccinated.

(2) Twice as many people with Covid are vaccinated.

(3) 2 out of every 3 people with Covid are vaccinated. I could go on and on.

 

[ian]

Guys, you are misreading his point.

Edit: I’m not saying I’ve verified his data or that I’m convinced by it, just that he’s not making the mistake you’re talking about.

 

[EShin]

sorry to piss on peoples parade. but thtis is how it works. and it was what all people in the know. actually did know from the start.
the vaxx is a completely worthless POS.

questions on that?? look in the 2 link posted above.

As far as I can tell, you're right about viruses getting more infectious but less dangerous. (There is some dispute about that in science itself, with both sides following the data but having a different viewpoint on what should count as data and how to interpret it. Claiming that ones own standpoint is "real" is mostly a rhetoric of power.) Moreover, you're totally right that the virus will most likely infect most people sooner or later (but not 100% due to herd immunity, which is only a temporal phenomenon because viruses but also the population are changing constantly). In the long run, viruses are not killed or defeated (unless the host is wiped out), but there is a symbiosis of virus and host. The question then is, is there a way to soften the peak infections and to select the less dangerous variants as to prevent a collapse of the public infrastructure, especially the medical system (essentially a human-made problem, yes)? It seems that vaccines have been quite efficient in doing so, which is exactly what vaccines should do because it is as you say, they cannot defeat the virus. So I don't see why they should be completely worthless? I'm not completely sure if vaccinating all population groups and all ages is really beneficial though.

 

[user 16756]

Guys, you are misreading his point.

Edit: I’m not saying I’ve verified his data or that I’m convinced by it, just that he’s not making the mistake you’re talking about.

I will agree that the incidence rate of vaccinated people getting it is higher if the source is correct and all that.

for it to matter the groups have to be otherwise identical. but because vaccination is a self-selection exercise, we know that's not the case. so you're right, the error isn't in his arithmetic, it's in his interpretation, which as I stated earlier, would charitably be called spurious.

plus as has been stated repeatedly a far more interesting question right now is whether the vaccine reduces severity.

 

[Luftmensch]

I am just going to throw this into the ring.... infection and disease are two very different things. If you haven't disambiguated this before, this is why the virus is called SARS-CoV-2 (the infecting agent) and the disease it causes is called COVID-19.

When it comes to vaccines, their ability to impart sterilisation immunity is rare. Most vaccines provide immune systems with the ability to recognise infectious agents so that the body can mount a response and mitigate the effect of future infections. No credible immunologist ever promised COVID vaccines would provide sterilisation immunity.

Lets not fall victim to a short memory either. SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus. Prior to COVID, we had not developed a successful vaccine for coronaviruses. They infect the upper respiratory system - although it is internal to your abdomen, it is effectively an 'exterior' surface. This has made it quite difficult for researchers to effectively target an immune response in the outer layer of cells. We are living at the cutting edge of medicine and science. Be grateful for the good fortune that we have the knowledge to respond with prophylactics, non-pharmaceutical interventions (hygiene, social distancing, masks) and increasingly better treatment.

Where I live (NSW) we have reached 93% vaccination... Parts of Australia have effectively reached 100% (ACT). You can bet that a lot of people in these communities are being infected with SARS-CoV-2, after all, cases are still being reported. However the incidence and transmission of severe COVID-19 (disease) cases is down.

New mutations we have to deal with? Unfortunate... but we have been monitoring this for two years now. This is not new information. We'll just have to adapt our current knowledge to keep up with the situation.

 

[spaceconvoy]

Look up Brandolini's Law to understand why logic is a waste of time here. Some people are so terrified of the vaccine they'll continue to invent new arguments that somehow frame their fearful avoidance as either wisdom or bravery.

 

[KingShapton]

Look up Brandolini's Law to understand why logic is a waste of time here. Some people are so terrified of the vaccine they'll continue to invent new arguments that somehow frame their fearful avoidance as either wisdom or bravery.

I didn't even know that, thank you for pointing this out. And very true.

 

[ReiHamono]

It’s a good point, vaccines perform poorly for highly mutagenic viruses as we are seeing right before our eyes.

A good example is the influenza vaccine which is a coin flip for effectiveness. The last year that I chose to take the flu vaccine was the year it was virtually worthless, I didn’t know that was even a possibility at the time

What we are seeing suggests that you can get the current vaccine 10X, but it’s not going to protect you

The other two facts to keep in mind is that the overwhelming majority of people who are infected with Covid never even know they had Covid as the are asymptomatic. ~95% “Covid deaths” are of people with multiple comorbidities and/or 65 years of age or older. Meaning that only 5% of deaths are actually 100% due to Covid

One final issue is the mystery of the disappearing influenza, it just magically disappeared all of a sudden, even in countries and states where masks and distancing are not used.

Influenza hospitalizations are up to 700,000+ and deaths up to 50,000 annually in USA, but not for the last few years some how. Lastly annual total deaths in the USA are 3,000,000+, That means every year we have around 3 million people dying in the USA from various causes, but we have some very strange people that only care about the small percentage of people “dying from Covid” and not from all of the other causes, especially from years past

So the take home message here is that 1) it’s impossible to ever eradicate a hyper mutating virus, so Covid will never go away EVER 2) Covid deaths are around a 10th of a percent of the total population (if we include those with multiple comorbidities which generally speaking died with Covid not from ) which is still even lower than our typical annual death rate in the USA 3) only those that are old and incredibly unhealthy are dying WITH covid, but not from Covid as they would from the flu and pneumonia before it magically disappeared

That’s why kids are virtually untouched by the virus as it’s not deadly to healthy people except those with exceptionally rare genetics ie 5% of total covid “deaths”

 

[KingShapton]

2) Covid deaths are around a 10th of a percent of the total population which is incredibly low, and even lower than our annual deaths

Every single death that could have been avoided is one death too many! Every single life is valuable. And even if a person with previous illnesses only had a few months to live, then these are all the more precious moments and these moments, this time was unnecessarily taken from this person and the people who are close to him. This is no small matter, it is tragic and wrong!

3) only those that are old and incredibly unhealthy are dying WITH covid, but not from Covid as they would from the flu and pneumonia before it magically disappeared

That’s why kids are virtually untouched by the virus as it’s not deadly to healthy people except those with exceptionally rare genetics ie 5% of total covid “deaths”

My own experiences are different ... I lost 3 people from my circle of friends through Covid, all 3 under the age of 50, 2 of them healthy and in very good shape.

 

[McMan]

~95% “Covid deaths” are of people with multiple comorbidities and/or 65 years of age or older. Meaning that only 5% of deaths are actually 100% due to Covid

Following this logic… If a person gets hit by a car and dies of pneumonia resulting from broken ribs then they didn’t 100% die of the car crash.

Or, what if a cancer patient gets hit by a car and dies of pneumonia resulting from broken ribs? Then they didn’t 100% die of the car crash either, especially because they were an immunocompromised individual before getting hit by the car. So, was it the cancer that killed them or the chemo regime?

Keep in mind that “comorbidity” is not synonymous with “pre-existing condition”. Covid can cause comorbidities, such as pneumonia. So, if a person dies of pneumonia that Covid caused, did they die of pneumonia or covid? Or did they only half-die of covid?

See Johns Hopkins discuss comorbidities and misinterpretations of the 94%-vs-6% statistics here:
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/09/01/comorbidities-and-coronavirus-deaths-cdc/

 

[Krisman]

This year is different than last year. Different variants, different levels of spread. A direct comparison of death numbers makes no sense. Current death numbers of vaccinated people vs unvaccinated people makes more sense.



IIRC a couple places were using vaccines that started out with 3 doses? I don't know. I'm also not sure which countries you're referring to here with the 5 doses, and why it matters. Are you saying that it's inconvenient or expensive enough to get multiple doses that it's not worth the decrease in rates of severe illness?



I mean, lower vaccination rates are one of like 20 differences between Africa and the US. According to at least one thing I read, many African countries had a very aggressive and early lockdown response. The weather's also different, and people are generally younger in Africa than in the US. (Median age in US = 38, median age in Africa = 20.) The difference in death rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the US is a much more compelling statistic than any comparison between the US and Africa.



I'm a little shaky on the details here, but basically all sources I've seen say that vaccinated people are less likely to spread covid. Yes, if Adam is vaccinated and Bob isn't, and they both are currently sick with covid, to the same degree, then it seems like they'll both spread the virus at equal rates, but Adam is much less likely to get as sick as Bob from covid in the first place, so in the absolute he's less likely to spread covid.

So are you saying if one's symptoms aren't as severe i.e. less sick, the risk of spreading the infection is less?
Because as far as I am aware, one can have no symptoms and still be highly contagious.

 

[riba]

A good example is the influenza vaccine which is a coin flip for effectiveness. The last year that I chose to take the flu vaccine was the year it was virtually worthless, I didn’t know that was even a possibility at the time

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-burden-averted-est.htmlThe cost-benefits are pretty straight forward imo

2) Covid deaths are around a 10th of a percent of the total population which is incredibly low,

Incredibly low????? Damn, that's incredibly asocial.

(Btw, don't neglect the burden on society of people suffering from long covid)

 

[ian]

So are you saying if one's symptoms aren't as severe i.e. less sick, the risk of spreading the infection is less?
Because as far as I am aware, one can have no symptoms and still be highly contagious.

Probably I shouldn’t have commented on this point, even though I said I was shaky on it. I’m confused about asymptomatic transmission rates and the relationship between viral load and symptoms and vaccination and all. I’ll delete that point and let others who actually understand this comment. Not sure I’m up for more reading of articles atm. Thanks for the pushback.

 

[KingShapton]

Incredibly low????? Damn, that's incredibly asocial.

 

[Michi]

Covid deaths are around a 10th of a percent of the total population

I really do wish you would quote your sources. I find that statement difficult to reconcile with the data here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Those figures indicate 0.24 percent. Not a lot really. Only 817,000 people so far. But, hey, who's counting…