Covid: the shape of things to come

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ian said:
Unqualified, ‘evidence’ is a kind of weak term in math. Evidence that something is true is like, you had a computer check that it’s true for the first 20 cases, but there’s still infinitely many more cases to check.
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I read this post 20 times and 20 times only. It was true each time... so by induction.... 🥳

Out of meandering interest... 'Evidence' is an important term in bayesian statistics/inference. It is used a lot. Often we are unable to make direct observations of variables of interest. These are called hidden variables. Instead we have to do the best we can with incomplete, indirect or noisy observations. These weaker observations are called 'evidence'.

Generally, the uncertainty in a model decreases as you gather evidence. The opposite of uncertainty is belief - as you gather more evidence, your belief in a hypothesis get stronger.

One of the cool outcomes from Bayesian statistics is that you can never know something definitively. Instead knowledge is represented as probability distributions. To know something definitively, you'd need to collect an infinite amount of evidence. If you did, your distribution might collapse into something that looked like a dirac delta function. But this is 'in the limit'... instead we just have to settle for being "pretty bloody sure"... 😉
 
Keith Sinclair said:
It is tough on parents and kids. Cyber learning didn't fair well here my niece was a teacher & cyber learning was very effective with her kids, but that's not the norm.
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and it varies by kid. My youngest did ok with cyber, by oldest started out ok, but completely fell apart towards the end of the school year. Of course when I say 'my youngest did ok' I mean she kept her grades and spirits up. Now did she learn and hit the milestones a smart 5th grader should in a normal year? That is tougher to answer, I kind of doubt it.
 
When I went for yearly checkup my doctor they asked if I wanted shingles vaccine. I inquired is it that big of a deal she said if you had chicken pox at any time you could be at risk. I'm 72 had chicken pox kindergarten age. Doesn't matter when so guess stuff does stay in your body a long time. Recently had a Moderna booster, & flu shot. That's enough for me don't know anybody with shingles.
 
Keith Sinclair said:
When I went for yearly checkup my doctor they asked if I wanted shingles vaccine. I inquired is it that big of a deal she said if you had chicken pox at any time you could be at risk. I'm 72 had chicken pox kindergarten age. Doesn't matter when so guess stuff does stay in your body a long time. Recently had a Moderna booster, & flu shot. That's enough for me don't know anybody with shingles.
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I would err on the side of getting the shingles vaccine (is it just the chickenpox vaccine??). One of my family members suffered a shingles episode. Similar to you, they had chicken pox when they were a child and the shingles occurred many years later when they were in their 60's. Sure, it is not common... but you don't want it. It is hard to shake and it caused my relative a prolonged period of painful neuralgia.

Speak to your doctor. If the downsides are low, the vaccine may save you from an unpleasant experience. Talking about the efficacy of the vaccine, given your childhood exposure to chickenpox, will also help you balance the decision.
 
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Guess I'll do some reading saw a warning on TV about it. I also was due for a tetanus shot when I took a fall & needed stitches. So poked 3 times recently wasn't in the mood at time for another one.
 
I’ve had shingles 3 times in the last 10 years. All before I ended up in the ER and the DRs figured out what was wrong with me that almost killed me. For me I’m pretty sure my blood disorder and the stress of running my company were to blame. I really don’t think I’ll get them again. I did get one shot recently and I got sick enough from it that I didn’t get the second one. I’m not suggesting anyone should do that. I know shingles can be extremely painful for some but they never bothered me all that much. I got them around my midsection and that was about it. I had a very mild case of chicken pox as a kid and we literally couldn’t get our daughter to contract them. We exposed her 4 times but she never did. Back then that’s what the DRs suggested, that may have changed by now. I don’t know if there’s a correlation between having mild chicken pox and mild shingles but that was my experience. Nor do I know if that had anything to do with my daughter not getting them, no matter how many times we tried. What I can say is that my father in law had them and he was in a world of hurt. He was a tough guy but those shingles really beat him up. He had them all over his body and he was in a lot of pain. If that was my experience I would definitely get the shots.
 
Post herpetic neuralgia is a condition for which the treatment is by no means perfect...loads of trial and error on a patient by patient basis. Not trying to scare anyone, but my vote would be to make attempt to avoid it all together!
 
gregfisk said:
I did get one shot recently and I got sick enough from it that I didn’t get the second one.
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That's how it was for me after the second shot, I felt really bad for 24 hours. BUT, after the second shot there is rest for the rest of my life and these 24 hours are nothing compared to the "fun" I had with shingles in the past.

If I were you, I would consider taking the second shot as well. Most of the time, you only react so violently once and that is already behind you.
 
MarcelNL said:
this would be great news if true in all regions....
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I hope so too, but realistically it is too early to have enough data to evaluate, currently it is only first estimates based on the few available data.


MarcelNL said:
regions....the bad news is that the AZ vaccine might not work against Omikron from15 weeks post dose onwards
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With the other vaccines, too, a series of tests shows that they only protect against infection with Omikron for a very limited time (? 3 months). The Biontec boss already speaks of the need for a 4th vaccination for longer protection.

BUT the protection against a severe course of the disease and against hospitalization should work beyond this time. I very much hope this is true, otherwise the whole world has a very serious problem.
 
MarcelNL said:
this would be great news if true in all regions....the bad news is that the AZ vaccine might not work against Omikron from15 weeks post dose onwards
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This sounds promising. I've also read that Pfizer original 2 dose provides about 70 % protection against severe disease and hospitalization, not as good as originally, but still pretty good. Booster increases protection even more. One problem is that because Omicron seems more contagious and transmission protection is lower there might still be many people that will get it and some of these will end up in a hospital.
 
I've had both Shingrix shots a few years ago. The last couple of weeks I've had what I think is hives. I was wondering if this is a mild case of shingles. Not ever having shingles I don't really know if this is the same.
 
VICTOR J CREAZZI said:
Not ever having shingles I don't really know if this is the same.
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Look up "shingles" in Wikipedia and if in doubt, call your doctor for advice. Shingles can virtually destroy an older person's life as I saw with a friend in his 80s who couldn't sleep because of the pain. Get the shingles shot if you haven't already had it.
 
MarcelNL said:
Post herpetic neuralgia is a condition for which the treatment is by no means perfect...loads of trial and error on a patient by patient basis. Not trying to scare anyone, but my vote would be to make attempt to avoid it all together!
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:Iagree:

Living with (near) untreatable pain is hell...
 
Luftmensch said:
I would err on the side of getting the shingles vaccine (is it just the chickenpox vaccine??).
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they're not the same vaccine.
chickenpox live attenuated.
shingles is protein subunit antigen. although there was a recently-discontinued one that was pretty much the chickenpox vaccine but different dosage.

in the US anyways.

i will totally get vaccinated with whatever anti-shingles crap they have when i'm older.
unfortunately, i had chickenpox as a kid. iirc, i was intentionally exposed :( lol
i wish that didn't happen to me. i would have much rather just been vaccinated. i could have probably held out for a few years until it became more common. oh well.

edit: looks like i wasn't even 10 when the vaccine was introduced in the US. i totally could have gotten it instead of the real mccoy. i think my mom probably just didn't know about it. doh!

i hope shingles is largely a thing of the past for new generations :)
 
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sansho said:
they're not the same vaccine.
chickenpox live attenuated.
shingles is protein subunit antigen. although there was a recently-discontinued one that was pretty much the chickenpox vaccine but different dosage.
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Interesting to know!

sansho said:
i will totally get vaccinated with whatever anti-shingles crap they have when i'm older.
unfortunately, i had chickenpox as a kid. iirc, i was intentionally exposed :( lol
i wish that didn't happen to me. i would have much rather just been vaccinated. i could have probably held out for a few years until it became more common. oh well.
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Me too. Pump my arm full of it!! Once I hit 50 or 60 I'll consult a GP and ask about a shingles vaccine. It sounds worse than chickenpox to me!

I was in a transition era. The vaccine hadnt been invented but the doctors were not encouraging deliberate infection either. As a result I reached adulthood without being vaccinated nor having had chickenpox. Almost 10 years ago I was travelling and I met with family. My second nephew once-removed... in law... (or something like that) broke out in chickenpox after I left. After hearing the news, I immediately rushed out and got vaccinated. Luckily I didn't get chicken pox. Hopefully it isn't lying dormant in my nerves...
 
this has been a public health issue. rules kinda change. like back in the day when they chased down Typhoid Mary and institutionalized her.

i grew up under science and i'm compelled to believe the science as a result. we absolutely kicked a few diseases into extinction with some robust vaccination programs. i have a tiny scar on my arm to prove it. i dont remember it, but i think we were MANDATED to get vaccinated before we could go into a public school. i do remember school-wide TB test, and that test was invasive. i dont remember a bunch of mom's protesting. imagine? the planet would burn down if the covid vaccine left a tiny scar in our arms like the old vaccines did.

it's a weird planet now. i had a college professor teach us that the ONLY way for the planet to get along 100% - lets call it TEAM EARTH. zero in-fighting, an entire planet coming together as one, fighting for one cause. he asked us, "can we come up with one cause?" the class was silent. he locked us down. we couldnt come up with the answer. so he tells us. he said, the only way the planet gets along 100% is if an Alien (space aliens) invasion happens. ***? basically, he said never. if aliens did invade? i bet we dont get 100% team earth. :)

i travel a lot. well, i did. i am vaccinated plenty. i got them all when i did South East Asia. i couldnt go without some proof. i was cool with that.

if i had a wish, i wish the vaccine protected us 100% and prevented spreading 100%. let the other throw the dice. i dont want to provide the dice.
 
so we just went back into lockdown until Mid January, in preparation for Omikron which is spreading like a disease...(from 2.5% last week to 25% this week) Boostering was started as slow as with the initial vaccination so once more we're late to the game.
 
MarcelNL said:
so we just went back into lockdown until Mid January, in preparation for Omikron which is spreading like a disease...(from 2.5% last week to 25% this week) Boostering was started as slow as with the initial vaccination so once more we're late to the game.
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You were surely visiting your Denmark friends too much, not observing Brexit in the proper religious way and partying too much with the Afrikaners.
 
So looks like omicron or whatever is going around here is very contagious and couldn't care less about vaccines at least the original 2 shots of Pfizer and previous infection. Totally anecdotal and unscientific evidence plus some assumptions follows. I bunch of kids in our school and friends gymnastics gym are positive. All vaccinated with 2 shots of Pfizer and some had covid in January/February. All had/have very, very mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. Most wouldn't know they were sick if they didn't test and some thought they had a very mild cold. Few had low grade fever for about a day or two. So as far as symptoms are concerned vaccine and previous infection are probably helping, but as far as transmission, doesn't seem to help enough given how many people got sick in a very short period of time. More than 30 people teenagers and 20-40 year old's within a week. I only know of 1 unvaccinated teen who also got it and her symptoms were equally mild. The strange thing is that most tested negative while having the peek of the symptoms, for the ones who had them, but then started getting positive test results while recovering and symptoms going away. For example, symptoms started Sunday night/Monday morning. They got negative results from both rapid and PCR tests Wednesday night at the peek of symptoms and then positive results Saturday morning from the rapid, antigen test, while no more symptoms on Saturday.

Given how late in the game the tests seem to be catching it, no wonder a bunch of people infected each other. The lack of protection for transmission is concerning, but the symptoms are mild so far for this group, so maybe not all bad.
 
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