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podzap said:
This virus is still a bit immature in that regard, needs to evolve a bit more. I mean that a virus doesn't really want to kill it's hosts. It really wants it's hosts to spread as much as possible. This R0=2.x is a bit weak - if I were a virus and optimised my game, it would be more like R0=28.
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The problem for the virus then is that it will quickly spread through all suscebtible people, either inciting an immune respense (and probably immunity) or killing them. Then it will have no new hosts available.
 
podzap said:
...I mean that a virus doesn't really want to kill it's hosts. It really wants it's hosts to spread as much as possible... if I were a virus and optimised my game, it would be more like R0=28
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Be careful: Avoid anthropomorphic analyses.

"Don't ascribe human actions to a virus (e.g, a virus thinks it can do this, or a virus is trying to infect the host, or trying to evolve) because that contaminates the way you look at the problem. You're going to ascribe your own motives and feelings to a virus which is totally incorrect, because they're not human obviously. They're actually passive entities - everything happens passively: lots of chemical reactions, natural selection and evolution - but they do not achieve their goals in a human centred manner. They're passive agents." (Source)
​
- Vincent R. Racaniello, Professor in the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at Columbia University’s College of Physicians and Surgeons
 
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podzap said:
This virus is still a bit immature in that regard, needs to evolve a bit more. I mean that a virus doesn't really want to kill it's hosts.
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Right. Evolutionary pressure is on the virus to not kill its hosts and evolutionary pressure is on the hosts to not die. (Unfortunately, the virus has the edge here, seeing that its reproductive cycle is many orders of magnitude shorter than that of humans.) We can hope that the virus becomes less deadly, but not that humans become more immune on a timescale we care about.

We can see this mechanism on a human timescale with mixomatosis. Mortality rate drops off sharply with each generation of rabbits, and the way to stay ahead is to keep breeding new mutations of the virus. It's an arms race that, eventually, both sides will win. The virus becomes endemic, and the rabbits breed forever thereafter because they are effectively immune (as a population).
 
Michi said:
evolutionary pressure is on the hosts to not die
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More accurately: evolutionary pressure is on the hosts to not die before they can reproduce and manage to keep offspring alive long enough for the offspring to not die before they can reproduce.
 
Nemo said:
Yep, we've made up a few (I believe a couple of dozen) of these just in case.
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Shiiiit... Did you loot the local Bunnings? When I messaged previously, there were quite a few half-mask respirators
 
Luftmensch said:
Shiiiit... Did you loot the local Bunnings? When I messaged previously, there were quite a few half-mask respirators
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I use the one you're talking about for knife-making, the green one from Bunnings.
s-l225.jpg

It's got a terrible seal around my face - after grinding for an hour I will still get loads of iron filings when I blow my nose. Wouldn't trust it for something serious.

For a while now I've wanted to get a really good one - a positive pressure PAPR (powered air purifying respirator), but they cost so much... :eek:
PAPR+Page+270x270.jpg
 
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In Denmark they have now stated no more than 2 persons should be meeting at any point except for families living together. I receive food and mail by waving to the deliverer through the glass pane of the door and waiting until he is away. All according to procedure.

People seem scared when you go for a walk and most keep their distance though some idiots are present. Hoping evolutionary pressure will take care of them.
 
Kippington said:
I use the one you're talking about for knife-making, the green one from Bunnings.
s-l225.jpg

It's got a terrible seal around my face - after grinding for an hour I will still get loads of iron filings when I blow my nose. Wouldn't trust it for something serious.
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You can get a bad seal for the following reasons:

1. mask either too small or too large (they come in sizes)
2. mask either adjusted too tight or too lose (hint: tight is not better as it can distort the mask shape)
3. facial hair is not compatible in any way with a face mask - shave the beard :)
4. simply not putting it on properly - chin first, then nose - not nose first, then chin

Knowing how to check the seal before going into a contaminated environment is key. Normally, you would put your hands over the intake filters and inhale strongly to see if you get a vacuum. If you don't get a vacuum, then check items 1-4 above.

I use this one - 3m 6200 with organic vapour filter and then P3 filter (the white part) on top of the vapour filter. It's difficult to check the seal on this mask unless you take the filters off, but anyway I trust it and like I mentioned in another thread I've worked inside live nerve agent chambers before (not with this mask, mind you, but this one is good enough to almost entirely prevent corona inhalation).

4001895947667_1.jpg
 
Thanks. I am staying in. I do have masks left over from my office and have n-95s i bought a while back. It's really ramping up here. First case 3-6- 2020. 240 yesterday total 851. I won't go out until i run out of food.
 
Kippington said:
It's got a terrible seal around my face - after grinding for an hour I will still get loads of iron filings when I blow my nose. Wouldn't trust it for something serious.
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Yeah... :(

I have the same experience.... It wasn't designed for my face (I tried two sizes)! I have a longish face and a narrowish nose (i think). The pocket between my cheek and nose doesnt make the best seal with this mask. I need to apply so much pressure on the straps that it is quite uncomfortable. Add to that, my safety goggles never fit over the nose bridge of the respirator (and often fogged up).

I got frustrated at the end of last year and purchased one of the full face masks:


3mfull.png


Back then Bunnings seemed to be cheaper than any other local retailer - not sure if this is still true. The surface that forms a seal is less complex - so I can get a better fit with less pressure. So far so good! I'd happily recommend it to a dilettante... but maybe you should keep saving for the higher end stuff?


podzap said:
facial hair is not compatible in any way with a face mask - shave the beard :)
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:confused:.....:oops:

Oh the shame! This is one reason I changed to the full-face respirator.... 6570 days scruffy! I am not about to shave just so I can tinker in the shed. I know if I were doing serious work, I wouldnt be let on the work site.
 
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Queensland boarder closed last night... we won't be able to even do the domestic part of the @Michi pass around
 
VICTOR J CREAZZI said:
So is the mail service shut down too? Not being sarcastic, I really want to understand.
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No, mail and goods transport and the like is happening as usual. There might be delays, but it's all happening.

It's about reducing movement of people, not goods.
 
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